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The Petersen story on the year has been rehashed: great improvement in K/BB, power gone. He acted like a slap hitter this season after putting up .168 park adjusted ISO last year.
Something to remember though, almost all of this was in the beginning of the year where he went over 70 days without a HR.
Since the game where he broke that drought, he put up a .317/.383/.484/.867 line in 206 PA, with a 19/16 BB/K and .323 BABIP. That's a .167 ISO, basically identical to what he did last season. He'd hit 6 HRs in that stretch, which would rate to 19 over 650 PA.
However, a season worth of stats > less than a half season worth of stats. But if he displays his power really is back in the AFL, can you really deny him a good prospect status? It's obviously only been two games but 3 of his 4 hits so far have gone for XBH (2 doubles and a HR).
Considering his ability to hit for average (Both from BABIP and low K rate), his above average ability to walk, if we say he can become an average power player aka .150 ISO, we're talking about something like .280/.350/.430/.780. Average LF OPS generally ranges from .780 to .800, so you could barely say that'd be average, but you're also looking at someone who should be a plus runner on the base paths even if he's SB's don't come back. And for someone who'd make the minimum for 3-4 years, hey, average production is just gravy.
One of the great things about him is also the fact that he's been equally effective v.s. LHP as he has against RHP, so this is not a Cousins situation.
He certainly isn't a great spec, and having him 4th would be more telling of the drop off in our farm system between '08 and '09. But considering no SP made a major step forward, James hasn't thrown a single pro pitch, and his only hitting competition for the spot is Gaby and Cousins...if he has a big AFL, I think he earns the spot.
Something to remember though, almost all of this was in the beginning of the year where he went over 70 days without a HR.
Since the game where he broke that drought, he put up a .317/.383/.484/.867 line in 206 PA, with a 19/16 BB/K and .323 BABIP. That's a .167 ISO, basically identical to what he did last season. He'd hit 6 HRs in that stretch, which would rate to 19 over 650 PA.
However, a season worth of stats > less than a half season worth of stats. But if he displays his power really is back in the AFL, can you really deny him a good prospect status? It's obviously only been two games but 3 of his 4 hits so far have gone for XBH (2 doubles and a HR).
Considering his ability to hit for average (Both from BABIP and low K rate), his above average ability to walk, if we say he can become an average power player aka .150 ISO, we're talking about something like .280/.350/.430/.780. Average LF OPS generally ranges from .780 to .800, so you could barely say that'd be average, but you're also looking at someone who should be a plus runner on the base paths even if he's SB's don't come back. And for someone who'd make the minimum for 3-4 years, hey, average production is just gravy.
One of the great things about him is also the fact that he's been equally effective v.s. LHP as he has against RHP, so this is not a Cousins situation.
He certainly isn't a great spec, and having him 4th would be more telling of the drop off in our farm system between '08 and '09. But considering no SP made a major step forward, James hasn't thrown a single pro pitch, and his only hitting competition for the spot is Gaby and Cousins...if he has a big AFL, I think he earns the spot.
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