Marlins Top Ten Prospects for 2020

[Lee Stone]

How dare someone suggest mlb teams actually know what they're doing? Much better to base your entire evaluation on 2 months of minor league stats.

Tough crowd! So, Nick, you agree with the Callis assessment of who the top ten prospects will be after next season? It should be noted that Callis mentioned only Bleday's college stats in forecasting his future success - not a word about Jupiter.

[Nick]

Tough crowd! So, Nick, you agree with the Callis assessment of who the top ten prospects will be after next season? It should be noted that Callis mentioned only Bleday's college stats in forecasting his future success - not a word about Jupiter.

I would not even attempt to predict who the top ten prospects after next season will be. I think that's mostly a pointless exercise, but I will say him saying Bleday will be a top 10 prospect after next season is a more reasonable take than Bleday is not a top 10 prospect in our organization right now.

[lou]

I would not even attempt to predict who the top ten prospects after next season will be. I think that's mostly a pointless exercise, but I will say him saying Bleday will be a top 10 prospect after next season is a more reasonable take than Bleday is not a top 10 prospect in our organization right now.

This post is exactly is what I was hoping for when I loaded the page. Thanks.

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I really love CJ Abrams in rookie ball with a .425 BABIP, versus Bleday aggressively being put in Jupiter, each with a small sample size, means one is the best prospect and one is a dud.

[Lee Stone]

Of note, Chisholm, Harrison and I Diaz are the guys to watch this winter. The three are playing in the Puerto Rico Winter League, which starts in a week. I'd be curious to know if they've been in Jupiter prior to the winter league season, working with Rowson and co. on their swings/approaches.

Lewin Diaz is the notable name in the Dominican League. After a hot start through the first ten games, his bat went to sleep over the next dozen games.

How good is Tyler Heineman? I look at Sean Murphy, #3 catching prospect at age 25, and what he did at AAA Las Vegas before heading up to Oakland. He put up Tyler Heineman numbers (albeit at an even more batter friendly venue in LV). Heineman, once known as a defensive specialist only, has thrown out 42% of attempted base stealers over his minor league career! I've assumed that Chad Wallach was only on the Marlins in deference to his bench coach father Tim, who is no longer with the team. I certainly hope that Heineman will take Wallach's place on the ML roster before being lost to another team. Beyond that, I'd like to see him in the Marlin lineup on a regular basis.

[Lee Stone]

For those interested, Harrison and Chisholm played first game for Criollos de Caguas in Puerto Rico last night. The went combined 0-7 with three whiffs. Their team was no hit through seven innings and dominated by free agent Hector Santiago.

11/16 Different story today. Jazz and Monte combine for 5 hits, stolen bases, rbi's, the works.

11/27 update Well, Jazz and Monte are both hitting about .200, the lowest marks among all Crillos de Cagua regulars. Not good.

[Lee Stone]

Why Humberto Mejia is flying under the radar: Injury history and subsequent shortage of innings only. His 90 innings in 2019 was more effort to bring him along gently than significant arm issue. Very much like Sixto in that regard. Physically, he's an Edward Cabrera clone (6-3 and 175) and, while he doesn't throw as hard, he has all the pitches. Although he threw just 24 innings at the A+ level last year, those appearances graded out as equal to Cabrera. There's no reason he can't be part of the Jacksonville rotation to start the year along with B Garrett, T Rogers, Castano and co. I can easily see him as the ace of that rotation and a prospect who may vault to near the top of Miami's prospect list by midseason.

[Lee Stone]

Great Chisholm read

52. Jazz Chisholm, SS, MIA. Age: 22

No one in the prospect industry saw Chisholm more than I did in 2019, but he’s still an extremely difficult evaluation currently. The raw skills are absolutely undeniable: Chisholm hit 21 home runs and stole 16 bases as an under-aged player in Southern League despite slashing .220/.321/.441 and striking out in 32.1% of his plate appearances. And there’s no doubt he’s a long-term shortstop, and one of the best in the minor leagues at that. But with the good comes the bad, and Chisholm was often beat with velocity up in the zone throughout his 2019 campaign. The troubling part of the approach—other than some aggression—is an uppercut swing with the steepest path of any prospect I evaluated last season. In an era that features pitchers getting the most from their fastballs by commanding the pitch in the upper third, a steep uppercut swing is certainly a troubling flaw to possess. I didn’t see him live after he was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Marlins for Zac Gallen, but it appears Miami’s instructor began ironing out the issues post-trade: in 94 plate appearances, Chisholm hit .284 and struck out in only 25.5% of his plate appearances (which is around the best case scenario in the long-term for the 22-year-old). The bat speed electric, he’s a plus defender, he should maintain his speed throughout the majority of his career and he has a fantastic personality. If he can put it all together, he’ll undoubtedly become one of the biggest personalities in baseball. He finished the 2019 season trending in the correct direction, so I’m anxious to see if he can maintain those gains in 2020. Marlins Rank: 2nd

[fish16]

Jazz seems incredibly similar to a didi Gregorious type

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Jazz seems incredibly similar to a didi Gregorious type

[Lee Stone]

I'll even tier them:

1 - Jazz (biggest superstar upside and a high floor defensively)
2 - Sixto (ties go to bats among volatile superstar upside players, but these guys are interchangeable)

3 - Sanchez (potential CF and/or gold glove RF upside is the tie breaker. Relatively equal with hit/power tools)
4 - Bleday

5 - Cabrera (the better SP projectable arms here even if some relief risk with Cabrera)
6 - Garrett

7 - Neidert (safety in a SP projection counts here the most for me. I'll take the floor versus upside of the next 3)
8 - Monte (strikeouts major concern, I'll take more stable SP candidates directly above, but take him above guys trending to RP)
9 - Rogers (still has a RP projection, if he's a starter he moves to 5-7 easily. I could be selling him short here with still trusting preseason RP commentary)
10 - Guzman (lefties before righties for potential good relievers. If he becomes a legitimate starter he moves to dare I say 1-3 on the list)

I also think we can expand the "fourth tier" above to Scott, Misner, Nunez, Devers, and L. Diaz as I can see 7-15 being relatively interchangeable right now. Which is pretty fantastic, but I like those guys above the most. I'd also be putting Diaz 6 or 7 on this list if he qualified.

Mejia and Vesia aren't sniffing the top 20, but they may sneak into the top 30.

Pretty much agree with everything Nick said.

My under the radar guy is Palacios. I don't really know anything about this dude and he isn't making any prospect lists, but those stats are "who the fuck is this guy" level awesome and why is there not more information on him? Fangraphs wrote this: Palacios, who is still just 18, was Miami’s DSL pitcher of the year [2018] after posting a 62-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He sits 86-92 with good breaking ball feel. He is 6'1/6'2 so I have to assume the issue is him growing into velocity as he's been professionally pitching as a 17-19 year old. I guess we'll see, but I like that he isn't a smaller guy and this may just be some physical growth is needed. I can see a meteoric rise in the system if he starts hitting mid 90s consistently and is throwing in A ball in the states. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...021&position=P

Your list matched Law's in names if not numbers. Well done. Nick's was very close as well. I had Cabrera on top and included Vesia, Guzman and Mejia along with Jazz and Sixto. Jury's still out on Jorge and Humberto, but I still like them better than Garrett, Sanchez and Bleday.

[lou]

Your list matched Law's in names if not numbers. Well done. Nick's was very close as well. I had Cabrera on top and included Vesia, Guzman and Mejia along with Jazz and Sixto. Jury's still out on Jorge and Humberto, but I still like them better than Garrett, Sanchez and Bleday.

Oh man Lee digging deep. I think I disagree with myself though, a little. I think the rungs now are probably:

Jazz
Sixto

Bleday
Cabrera < - Seems like he should be moving up

Sanchez < - Just a tick down for contact concerns, but still a top 75 prospect
Garrett

L. Diaz < - I underrated, seems like he is better than I anticipated
Neidert
Monte
Rogers
Guzman
Scott
Misner
Nunez
(and no Devers, I think we all got too excited for his stat line)

I can't put Jerar/Burdick/Vesia into the above yet. Need to see a big more.

And putting Mejia above Bleday is insane.

[Nick]

The only thing I'd change about my list is maybe move Jazz and JJ above Jesus. Garrett and Rogers are probably interchangeable with Scott and Misner. Interesting to see how some places like Garrett more, but then Fangraphs had Rogers rated higher, to me, they're pretty freaking similar, I would say I'd give each of them an equal chance of being solid major league starters.

[Lee Stone]

The only thing I'd change about my list is maybe move Jazz and JJ above Jesus. Garrett and Rogers are probably interchangeable with Scott and Misner. Interesting to see how some places like Garrett more, but then Fangraphs had Rogers rated higher, to me, they're pretty freaking similar, I would say I'd give each of them an equal chance of being solid major league starters.

I'd give both Rogers and Garrett at least a fifty percent shot at being league average starters. I'd say the odds of Connor Scott or Misner becoming ML average outfielders is probably closer to 20%, maybe less.

[Nick]

I'd give both Rogers and Garrett at least a fifty percent shot at being league average starters. I'd say the odds of Connor Scott or Misner becoming ML average outfielders is probably closer to 20%, maybe less.

I wouldn't disagree with that necessarily, but Misner and Scott have much higher ceilings as hitters than Rogers and Garrett do as pitchers, IMO.