Marlins Top Ten Prospects for 2020

[Lee Stone]

We all have our own view of our prospect potential. Here's mine:

1) No doubt in my mind, CJ Abrams should be the name here. 80 speed, outstanding bat to ball skill, he has it all ... but the Marlins didn't see it. So, Edward Cabrera is the guy. His age and numbers were very close to Sixto Sanchez, but he still has physical upside.
2) Sixto Sanchez
3) I'm stepping out of mainstream thinking here, but Jorge Guzman is my choice. It's all about development and where a player is headed, and August was incredible for Guzman. Just six hits over his last 30 innings. What has he done for us lately? Pitch better than anyone else. However, the walks still have to come down.
4) Jazz Chisholm. Needs to make more consistent contact, but there's a chance he could become REALLY good.
5) Nick Neidert. My choice here is based on a belief that he is pretty certain to be a solid contributor. Not great, but solid.
6) Humberto Mejia. He seems to have all the tools.
7) Alex Vesia. Bullpen arms are more important than ever, and lefties rate even extra. 8th for me and not even in mainstream top thirties? I don't care. Difference is he's damn near a sure thing.
8) Things get especially "iffy" at this point for me. Monte Harrison is my inclination and that's all it is.
9) Lewin Diaz. Offensively, he's a riser. Off to a great start in Dominican Winter League too.
10) Jesus Sanchez. The final name was a struggle for me, but he has a more complete game than Bleday, who lagged far behind Logan Morrison at age 21 - Jupiter. (Morrison having been a similarly high-regarded LH hitting prospect at the time).

Where do you differ from the mainstream pundits/evaluators?

[Nick]

Your take on Bleday is quite bad. I mean it's a broken record, but the fact that Bleday had 140 ABs in Jupiter vs. Logan Morrison having 555 ABs, I guess that doesn't even register in your brain. He showed tremendous improvement from July to August and would've continued to improve, but ran out of games.

I do think Mejia is a sleeper, but he's also only pitched 150 innings over the last 3 years. To me you have to show some ability to stay healthy to find yourself on a top prospect list. He has a 2020 season with a completely clean bill of health, then I think you start talking about him as a top 10 prospect.

I like Vesia a lot, I think he'll be a tremendous asset in the near future. That being said him being above Diaz, Harrison and Sanchez is laughable. This is just a matter of a guy who may pitch 75 innings in a season vs. guys who will have 600 ABs, the value is not comparable.

Your Jorge Guzman take pretty much sums up your evaluating strategy on prospects. A guy who probably wasn't in your top 100 in June, has a couple good months and he's top 3. I do think he made some big time strides this year, but he's no longer a super-young prospect, will be 24 when the season starts next year, and it's getting close to time to move him to the pen, where I think he was always destined to end up.

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As far as guys who are a little bit off the radar. I think I've been pretty open that I think Peyton Burdick is just going to keep hitting on every stop on the way to the majors. Really think he could move quickly, but where does he fit in with the many outfield options in our system?

An underrated part of our system last year was the pitching at Low-A Clinton, we had a ton of pitchers, that granted were too old to be in Clinton due to injuries, but who actually have very good stuff and performed well last season. These are guys you won't find on any of our top prospect lists. I'm talking about guys like Josh Roberson, Remey Read, Jake Walters and Tanner Andrews. 2019 was a show us you can stay healthy year for these guys, 2020 could be a year where I think you get aggressive with there upward movement, and I think you see at least one of these guys breakout as a prospect next year.

[Lee Stone]

I was interested in hearing others' views of their current top ten moreso than a critique of my personal choices ... but whatever floats your boat.

[lou]

I'll even tier them:

1 - Jazz (biggest superstar upside and a high floor defensively)
2 - Sixto (ties go to bats among volatile superstar upside players, but these guys are interchangeable)

3 - Sanchez (potential CF and/or gold glove RF upside is the tie breaker. Relatively equal with hit/power tools)
4 - Bleday

5 - Cabrera (the better SP projectable arms here even if some relief risk with Cabrera)
6 - Garrett

7 - Neidert (safety in a SP projection counts here the most for me. I'll take the floor versus upside of the next 3)
8 - Monte (strikeouts major concern, I'll take more stable SP candidates directly above, but take him above guys trending to RP)
9 - Rogers (still has a RP projection, if he's a starter he moves to 5-7 easily. I could be selling him short here with still trusting preseason RP commentary)
10 - Guzman (lefties before righties for potential good relievers. If he becomes a legitimate starter he moves to dare I say 1-3 on the list)

I also think we can expand the "fourth tier" above to Scott, Misner, Nunez, Devers, and L. Diaz as I can see 7-15 being relatively interchangeable right now. Which is pretty fantastic, but I like those guys above the most. I'd also be putting Diaz 6 or 7 on this list if he qualified.

Mejia and Vesia aren't sniffing the top 20, but they may sneak into the top 30.

Pretty much agree with everything Nick said.

My under the radar guy is Palacios. I don't really know anything about this dude and he isn't making any prospect lists, but those stats are "who the fuck is this guy" level awesome and why is there not more information on him? Fangraphs wrote this: Palacios, who is still just 18, was Miami’s DSL pitcher of the year [2018] after posting a 62-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He sits 86-92 with good breaking ball feel. He is 6'1/6'2 so I have to assume the issue is him growing into velocity as he's been professionally pitching as a 17-19 year old. I guess we'll see, but I like that he isn't a smaller guy and this may just be some physical growth is needed. I can see a meteoric rise in the system if he starts hitting mid 90s consistently and is throwing in A ball in the states. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...021&position=P

[Nick]

Mine's not nearly as "interesting" as yours is Lee, I apologize.

1. Sixto
2. Edward Cabrera (I think we're his two biggest supporters on here Lee, so at least we have that)
3. Jesus Sanchez
4. Jazz Chisholm
5. JJ Bleday
6. Nick Neidert
7. Monte Harrison
8. Lewin Diaz
9. Connor Scott
10. Kameron Misner

Honorable Mentions

Guzman, Garrett, Rogers, Devers, Nunez and Burdick

Me and Lee are definitely on board the Palacios train lou, although I question if he really truly exists sometimes because he still seems to be unknown to prospect evaluators. His numbers, especially the lack of walks are borderline unbelievable.

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By comparison, Jorge Guzman has averaged about 5.2 walks per 9 the last two years. In the last two years Palacios has walked 6 guys total in 104 innings.

[lou]

Check this out - https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/m...236693508.html

I think I'm moving up Neidert to 6th and in that 3rd tier - http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats....d=l119&cid=527

Yowza

[tjfla]

Check this out - https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/m...236693508.html

I think I'm moving up Neidert to 6th and in that 3rd tier - http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats....d=l119&cid=527

Yowza

When healthy Neidert is 2nd Best SP in System

Sixto
Neidert
#3 Overall Pick
Cabrera
Garrett
Rogers/Guzman(Both could be dominant RP)

Palacios need to up the competition level first but ya he could be something. Palacios/Givin/Alberto Guerrero/Soriano make up the next wave of arms. 1 of them should breakout next year-my guess is Guerrero as he will be in Jupiter

We have ALOT of depth arms who could become something too. Mejia/Stewart/Remey Reed/Roberson/Puckett/Walters all can pitch. They all are boom/bust types

As for Lee. Mejia needs to stay healthy-LOTS of shoulder issues and Vesia who I love(CJ Carter too) u can't put in Top 20 because he is a RP only. Closers u can but at this point he is a RP only. Same thing with Guzman-he actually showed he could be a SP LY but reality is he CL in majors so 10-12 range

Dont forget Bleday was playing since Jan-guys get tired

[Lee Stone]

When healthy Neidert is 2nd Best SP in System

Sixto
Neidert
#3 Overall Pick
Cabrera
Garrett
Rogers/Guzman(Both could be dominant RP)

Palacios need to up the competition level first but ya he could be something. Palacios/Givin/Alberto Guerrero/Soriano make up the next wave of arms. 1 of them should breakout next year-my guess is Guerrero as he will be in Jupiter

We have ALOT of depth arms who could become something too. Mejia/Stewart/Remey Reed/Roberson/Puckett/Walters all can pitch. They all are boom/bust types

As for Lee. Mejia needs to stay healthy-LOTS of shoulder issues and Vesia who I love(CJ Carter too) u can't put in Top 20 because he is a RP only. Closers u can but at this point he is a RP only. Same thing with Guzman-he actually showed he could be a SP LY but reality is he CL in majors so 10-12 range

Dont forget Bleday was playing since Jan-guys get tired

Just to clarify, I rate prospects somewhat differently than others. I rate based on my assessment of the likelihood that a player will become a solid major league asset at whatever his position may be. I see Vesia as having a solid 70 percent chance of being an effective relief pitcher. While Harrison, L Diaz, Jesus Sanchez can possibly be more valuable assets if they are ultimately successful, I wouldn't give any of them better odds than maybe 50-50. As for a guy like Mejia, I'm going to assume a return to health. His being elected as the top pitching prospect in the Midwest League, by the people who observed him most closely, was huge. Remember, Sixto Sanchez was regarded as the Marlin top prospect this season despite throwing only 45 innings in 2018 before going down with a bad shoulder. Mejia threw 90 innings before going down with injury last season. He's probably the most under-rated of all Marlin prospects.

[tjfla]

Just to clarify, I rate prospects somewhat differently than others. I rate based on my assessment of the likelihood that a player will become a solid major league asset at whatever his position may be. I see Vesia as having a solid 70 percent chance of being an effective relief pitcher. While Harrison, L Diaz, Jesus Sanchez can possibly be more valuable assets if they are ultimately successful, I wouldn't give any of them better odds than maybe 50-50. As for a guy like Mejia, I'm going to assume a return to health. His being elected as the top pitching prospect in the Midwest League, by the people who observed him most closely, was huge. Remember, Sixto Sanchez was regarded as the Marlin top prospect this season despite throwing only 45 innings in 2018 before going down with a bad shoulder. Mejia threw 90 innings before going down with injury last season. He's probably the most under-rated of all Marlin prospects.

Yes LY he did but has Sixto ever had shoulder surgery? Mejia has and was reason he missed 2017 season. Mejia threw 90 innings and went down with shoulder soreness. Dont get me wrong I like Mejia ALOT but needs to stay healthy

[lou]

When healthy Neidert is 2nd Best SP in System

Sixto
Neidert
#3 Overall Pick
Cabrera
Garrett
Rogers/Guzman(Both could be dominant RP)

Palacios need to up the competition level first but ya he could be something. Palacios/Givin/Alberto Guerrero/Soriano make up the next wave of arms. 1 of them should breakout next year-my guess is Guerrero as he will be in Jupiter

We have ALOT of depth arms who could become something too. Mejia/Stewart/Remey Reed/Roberson/Puckett/Walters all can pitch. They all are boom/bust types

As for Lee. Mejia needs to stay healthy-LOTS of shoulder issues and Vesia who I love(CJ Carter too) u can't put in Top 20 because he is a RP only. Closers u can but at this point he is a RP only. Same thing with Guzman-he actually showed he could be a SP LY but reality is he CL in majors so 10-12 range

Dont forget Bleday was playing since Jan-guys get tired

Do you think Neidert is better for the floor/safe, or upside? FG and MLB (I know not the best), have Cabrera above him, and MLB has Garrett and Rogers. Neidert is a command/changeup guy from what I've read. Kyle Hendricks best case scenario (which is obviously a great case scenario). But that's not a supreme upside Sixto/Sandy/Cabrera/Guzman type with their pure stuff. Or a lefty like Caleb/Rogers/Garrett.

Also, I think the Marlins # 3 pick, which is basically a 66% chance of being a hitter with the current spread, shouldn't be considered the Marlins 3rd best SP prospect. And I sure as hell hope the # 3 pick is better than Neidert as a prospect. No offense to Nick, but he's not a top 100 prospect anywhere right now.

[Nick]

Neidert definitely doesn't have the elite stuff of Cabrera and Sixto. I think he compares to Zac Gallen pretty favorably though. Neidert will definitely be a better prospect going into 2020 than Gallen was going into 2019, now I'm not expecting the huge jump that Gallen made, but even without that jump I think he's going to be pretty good. One thing I was impressed with when I watched him a little last year is how well he hides the baseball, in a little bit of a funky delivery. I think it makes that 93-94 mph fastball look more like 95-96.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obRznDrMgzw

Good recent video on Neidert, he talks about the injury he struggled with this year, and you get a good look at the delivery I was talking about above.

[tjfla]

Do you think Neidert is better for the floor/safe, or upside? FG and MLB (I know not the best), have Cabrera above him, and MLB has Garrett and Rogers. Neidert is a command/changeup guy from what I've read. Kyle Hendricks best case scenario (which is obviously a great case scenario). But that's not a supreme upside Sixto/Sandy/Cabrera/Guzman type with their pure stuff. Or a lefty like Caleb/Rogers/Garrett.

Also, I think the Marlins # 3 pick, which is basically a 66% chance of being a hitter with the current spread, shouldn't be considered the Marlins 3rd best SP prospect. And I sure as hell hope the # 3 pick is better than Neidert as a prospect. No offense to Nick, but he's not a top 100 prospect anywhere right now.

I mean right now. I think #3 pick,Garrett and Cabrera end up better than Neidert in 2 years. Like u said he is Kyle Hendricks/Woody Williams type likely but right now he is better than the guys when healthy

2 years I would say

Sixto
#3 Pick(Hancock/Ginn/Wilcox)
Cabrera
Garrett
Neidert

[lou]

Don't read this Lee - https://www.mlb.com/news/predicting-...at-end-of-2020

[Lee Stone]

Don't read this Lee - https://www.mlb.com/news/predicting-...at-end-of-2020

Lou, you'll note that Callis listed the top four from the 2019 draft, in order, within his top ten. That's just silly and lazy. Bobby Witt Jr. played in the same Arizona Rookie League as CJ Abrams, against the same competition. Abrams had 1.034 OPS to .670 for Witt. His suggestion that Witt will rate higher after the 2020 season is purely whimsical. And Bleday was blase' at Jupiter, a zillion miles from a top ten talent.

[Nick]

How dare someone suggest mlb teams actually know what they're doing? Much better to base your entire evaluation on 2 months of minor league stats.