5/30 - 6/5 Minor League Game Thread

[Nick]

Edward Cabrera has been very encouraging. He was a prime breakout candidate and it looks like it might be happening. Too soon to think about a call up to AA, but anxious to see how he does outside of Jupiter.

[fish16]

I think we could legitimately have 5+ top 100 guys next offseason depending on who we promote and when we promote them this year. Bleday, gallen, Diaz, monte, Cabrera, Holloway, Garrett, among a few others all have a legitimate chance of being part of that group

[lou]

I think we could legitimately have 5+ top 100 guys next offseason depending on who we promote and when we promote them this year. Bleday, gallen, Diaz, monte, Cabrera, Holloway, Garrett, among a few others all have a legitimate chance of being part of that group

Well Gallen and Diaz are going to graduate with the way things are going.

I think Sixto and Bleday are locks. It's going to be hard to keep Monte (big shifts in BB/K rate which is a good omen) and Devers (he's 19, the numbers are very impressive for the level and they are going to start projecting power as he has years to fill out) out with what they are doing.

You could see VVM, Garrett, Neidert, Scott, maybe Cabrera or Rogers (both have RP risk but may be shaking that away a little) sneaking in there if they end strong this year. Holloway is going to need more exposure before he gets real hype unless he goes all Gallen/Paddack the rest of the year. He still has a RP projection and I don't think he's remotely shaking that away yet.

Regardless, this is getting to be a deep farm on paper and it's getting pretty encouraging.

- - - - - - - - - -

Yeah gotta say lou that's a great list. Didn't find much I disagree with (even my love for Neidert has to admit the injury this season has been worrisome). Gallen's spot was right before his complete breakout this season. We all thought he was a solid future #3/4 starter, but if he can grow into a major leaguer even quicker than expected with higher upside then God bless.

Appreciate it. I think the biggest difficulty in evaluating the farm right now is what to think of Gallen. His performance is out of control, but even with good AAA numbers last year Fangraphs said this:

Viewed as a low-ceiling pitchability arm in college, Gallen reached Double-A just one calendar year after he was drafted by St. Louis, which traded him to Miami in the Marcel Ozuna deal the following winter. Last year he experienced an uptick in velocity and his four-seamer now sits in the low-90s and touches 94. It helped Gallen miss more bats, and he struck out a batter per inning at Triple-A New Orleans. Realistically, Gallen will pitch at the back of a rotation as a No. 4 or 5 starter because nothing he throws is plus and it’s hard to envision him striking out many major league hitters. But if the velo bump last year was just the start of a trend that continues into the future, there might be a bit more here.

What's changed here? Is the velocity bump explaining additional AAA domination, or is he just a man among boys at the level? If he throwing some plus stuff now and not just relying on control/craftiness? I remember this article too about how he is throwing his cutter more - https://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-marlins/fl-sp-marlins-20190302-story.html. Maybe that's it.

ESPN had a fantasy article about one of his starts in May. Hard to find much other longterm projection references than stuff like this:

I came into the start expecting to see a solid back-end-of-the-rotation prospect. Gallen lived up to that billing and maybe a little bit more. With room to improve fastball command -- and perhaps get a little more out of the changeup -- I could see the makings of a No. 3 starter. As packaged, he can get outs at the highest level now; however, a good lineup or unfriendly ballpark could make for some tough outings......if Gallen receives a call this season, I think he can be a valuable streamer or even a viable rotation option in deep leagues or league-only formats. I do like his chances of being a solid 3/4 guy across 32 starts as soon as 2020. https://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/insider/story/_/id/26761943/how-high-fantasy-ceiling-marlins-prospect-zac-gallen

Not sure if they mean a fantasy 3/4 SP (which is a MLB # 3 at least which would be amazing), but if he just means a 3/4 overall SP, that still seems to be besting preseason expectations which is great.

Personally, I'm still expecting a (really good) # 4 SP, that may tick up to a # 3 if something clicks (like how Pablo added some velocity and looks awesome). Anything more would just be amazing. Caleb and Pablo have exceeded my expectations already, so I hope they keep that train rolling with Gallen.

Really loving the pitching. They could have a mountain of riches of guys to trade in a year if this all keeps up.

[tjfla]

They have taken quite a few 35+/35 FG guys on Day 3

[lou]

They have taken quite a few 35+/35 FG guys on Day 3

So has every team

[geemoney]

6/5

AAA New Orleans: L, 10-4

Sierra: 1-3, 2 R, BB, 2 K
I.Diaz: 1-4, R, RBI, K
Snyder: 1-3, RBI, K
M.Brown: 1-4, R, 2B, K
Beggs: L, 3.2 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HRA
Milbrath: 1.1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HRA
T.Kinley: 1 IP, 2 K

AA Jacksonville: Game Postponed

A+ Jupiter: W, 1-0

Sims: 1-4, R, HR (3), RBI, K
Alonso: 1-3, BB
Soto: 1-4, 2 K
Santos: 1-4, 2 K, CS
E.Cabrera: W, 6 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 5 K
C.Smith: SV, 1 IP, 1 K

A Clinton: W, 2-1

C.Scott: 2-4, 2 SB
Hollins: 3-4, RBI
Grant: 1-3, RBI, 2 K
M.Rivera: 1-3, 2B, K
Andrews: W, 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HRA
Walters: SV, 4 IP, 1 H, 8 K

DSL Marlins: W, 10-5

Melenciano: 1-4, R, RBI, BB, 3 K, SB
Machado: 2-4, R, RBI
Felipe: 2-4, 2 R, 2B, BB, 2 K
De Leon: 1-4, R, 2B, BB, K
Y.Sanchez: 0-5, R, RBI, 3 K, SB
Chinchilla: 1-1, R, 2B, RBI, 2 BB
Cumana: 1-2, R, 2B, RBI, K, SB
Mendez: W, 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Bargallo: SV, 1.1 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 3 K

[fish16]

connor scott has been much better the last month or so. Also nice to see him up to 13 sb's on the year, although the efficiency leaves a little to be desired.

[Nick]

New Orleans getting worked.

[Lee Stone]

Top 3 qualifying PCL pitchers by ERA in 2018:
NAME TEAM W▼ L▼ ERA▲ G▼ GS▼ CG▼ SHO▼ SV▼ IP▼ H▼ R▼ ER▼ HR▼ HB▼ BB▼ SO▼ WHIP▲ HLD▼ GF▼
Trevor Oaks OMA 8 8 3.23 22 22 1 0 0 128.1 130 50 46 5 4 44 70 1.36 0 0
Zac Gallen NO 8 9 3.65 25 25 0 0 0 133.1 148 60 54 14 8 48 136 1.47 0 0
Rogelio Armenteros FRE 8 1 3.74 22 21 1 0 1 118.0 106 51 49 15 3 48 134 1.31 0 1


Top 3 in 2019:
NAME TEAM W▼ L▼ ERA▲ G▼ GS▼ CG▼ SHO▼ SV▼ IP▼ H▼ R▼ ER▼ HR▼ HB▼ BB▼ SO▼ WHIP▲ HLD▼ GF▼
Elieser Hernandez NO 3 1 1.13 9 9 0 0 0 48.0 35 8 6 0 7 14 69 1.02 0 0
Zac Gallen NO 8 1 1.67 12 12 1 0 0 81.0 41 17 15 7 1 15 99 0.69 0 0
Hector Noesi NO 5 2 2.19 11 11 0 0 0 65.2 46 17 16 9 1 17 70 0.96 0 0

That's pretty amazing. Gallen has gone from over a hit an inning to a single hit every TWO innings, while greatly reducing his walk rate. It's all about command.
Of note: Compared to the top ten-rated RHP in the MLB Pipeline, only top-ranked Casey Mize is getting results anywhere near as good as Gallen.

[fish16]

Ya Gallen has gone from potential back end of the rotation arm to a guy you can comfortably project as a mid rotation guy with the hope that he becomes more than that. Elieser has also been fantastic, but i still see him as a good bullpen option given the other options we will have in the rotation moving forward. Still a great rule 5 pick though.

[Nick]

Gallen has pitched into the 7th inning in 9 of his 12 starts, and made it into the 6th inning in every start. Just unbelievable.

[fish16]

Decent outing for Sixto. Id like to see him start being much more efficient with his pitch count, but that should come with more experience. I hope they just let him develop and dont rush him. He shouldnt be in the bigs until the start of 2021 at the earliest. Give him all of this year in AA, all of next year in AAA, and then maybe even pull a gallen and have him really refine his stuff to begin 2021 in AAA before calling him up mid season.