5/30 - 6/5 Minor League Game Thread

[lou]

Time to take note of what Gallen, Hernandez and Noesi are doing at New Orleans. Over the last ten years, no Marlin AAA starter has performed as well as 32-year-old Noesi has thus far ... not even close. And the much younger Gallen and Hernandez have been even better. At a time when hitters are dominating the PCL, that's even more significant.

The question arises: How do the Marlins make the best use of the three? Who belongs in the rotation that already ranks tenth in baseball based on ERA? Who belongs in the bullpen?

Noesi has a .234 BABIP and a 4.11 FIP. That sounds about right in AAA. The other two are kicking ass though. Gallen has a ludicrous BABIP (.190), but his FIP is fine so I believe the performance.

Gallen is purely a super 2 and Urena decision. He comes up after June 20th when Urena is gone (or someone else gets hurt). That easy. They have to deflect the service time as it's only 3 weeks or so.

Elisier for me is an up/down arm for injuries/tiredness right now. Let him throw innings in AAA unless needed. It doesn't hurt his development at all.

Noesi is purely an injury replacement and maybe gets some August/September starts. If he's actually good, I believe he is still arbitration eligible so they can tender him and throw him in the bullpen/trade him as a potential $2-4 million player, to someone in the offseason.

[Lee Stone]

Alcantara=31 walks and just 41 K

[lou]

If I were Noesi. I'd be begging to move to the pen. That's the only way he gets called up. For Gallen and Hernandez many of us are in favor of going to a 6-man rotation once Urena is dealt. We'll see if the org is able to think out of the box like that.

I agree, I'd be doing that if I were him

[fauowls44]

Alcantara=31 walks and just 41 K

He's not without his issues, but putting him in the pen at 23 would be a complete waste. He's had very good starts. He maintains his velocity deep into games. The control could come with time and trusting his stuff. He doesn't K as many people as you'd like, at least not yet. But neither does Urena, and he has become a quality starting pitcher.

[lou]

Alcantara=31 walks and just 41 K

Longterm upside dwarfs most others. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statc...r_type=pitcher

He has some of the best low exit velocity/hard hit rates in the league. He obviously has good "stuff" and fastball. That's a profile that turns into a massive starter if it clicks. It's striking out a few guys and 1 less walk a game and we're talking a # 2 SP quickly. I don't know how a guy who throws that hard and batters can't square up isn't striking out more guys, so we'll see.

I don't know if it's going to happen and he may be a (good) reliever, but that's a 2021 decision. You can always move him to the pen. You don't clear him out for Noesi, Hernandez, and maybe even Gallen. You clear him out if Caleb, Pablo, and Sixto look great, and you feel you have some 4/5s with Gallen, Neidert, Richards, and the rest of them. If all of that happens and Alcantara is still middling as a 4.50 era starter without whiffing people 150 innings down the road, to the bullpen!

- - - - - - - - - -

Also Lee, for a guy who likes Urena, Urena was a disaster 2015-2017 over 300 innings (2017 FIP over 5 despite ERA), and really turned a corner in 2018 and is stabilizing that growth in 2019.

You give these guys time. I do think they wait too long sometimes before doing RP conversions (Hand, probably should have moved Conley over earlier, etc.), but you got to give them that chance to find their control and out pitch.

[lou]

So since the main portion of the draft is over, I think they are rolling something like this right now:

FV60
Sixto (top 25ish overall prospect)

FV50
Bleday (50-70 range)
Diaz (80-100 range) - Trending Up
Monte (100-125 range) - Trending Up

FV45+
Devers (Fringe top 125) - Trending Up (I think they were onto something here)

FV45
Gallen - Trending Up (on the verge of moving up another rung)
Garrett (need more innings with the next 5 to get more excited)
Holloway
Guzman
E. Cabrera - Trending Up
Rogers - Trending Up
Scott - Trending Down
Niedert - Trending Down
Misner (Fangraphs gives these two this rating already!)
Nunez

FV40+
VVM (downgrade) - Trending (way) Down. I can buy moving him to the last FV45

FV40
Banfield
Dugger - Trending Up
Yamamoto
Ferrell
W. Stewart - Trending Down
O. Johnson - Trending Down
Fortes - Trending Up
B. Miller
Vallimont - Trending Up
Fitterer (Fangraphs gives this rating)
Pompey
Quijada


Gallen, Diaz, Ferrell, and Quijada are going to graduate, but the rest shouldn't into the offseason. They have some assets to sell so they probably fill out some FV40+/FV40 with a few more guys. This is getting pretty deep, and it doesn't include guys like E. Hernandez and Sierra who have to be FV40 at minimums, let alone the 8-10 guys we like at the MLB level.

Spend the free agency money on two huge bats!

[tjfla]

Gallen has moved in BA's Top 100

Elieser and Sierra should be 40. Mejia/Palacios/Given/Puckett(before injury) all shoud be 40 while Mesa Jr could be 40 too

Salas/Cappe/Yo Sanchez would be on list as well if/when signed

Wouldn't be surprised to 1 or 2 other 35/40 types in our draft

[lou]

Gallen has moved in BA's Top 100

Elieser and Sierra should be 40. Palacios/Given/Puckett(before injury) all shoud be 40 while Mesa Jr could be 40 too

Salas/Cappe/Yo Sanchez would be on list as well if/when signed

Wouldn't be surprised to 1 or 2 other 35/40 types in our draft

Well Gallen is definitely a FV50 then which is just a huge leap. Where is Monte? He's doing well (even with the BABIP issue...) so he's a good benchmark to put guys above/below.

[tjfla]

Also what about Jerar Encarnacion?

[lou]

Also what about Jerar Encarnacion?

21 year old with a .410 BABIP in low A ball? I think we need some more press before getting even slightly excited on guys like that. Maybe an end of the year list if he keeps it up. Same with Palacios. At least get to A ball. No knocks against them, but baseball is hard.

[tjfla]

21 year old with a .410 BABIP in low A ball? I think we need some more press before getting even slightly excited on guys like that. Maybe an end of the year list if he keeps it up. Same with Palacios. At least get to A ball. No knocks against them, but baseball is hard.

True just saying lots more could get there before end of year. Would love to know whats deal with Josh Roberson-was another 1 trending up before hurt

[lou]

True just saying lots more could get there before end of year. Would love to know whats deal with Josh Roberson-was another 1 trending up before hurt

I'm sure a few more FV40s will pop up. I mean, I added Fortes and Vallimont as FG said nice things and they are doing well, and dropped Nelson on my own accord. But have to see what happens end of the year.

I feel pretty confident with that top 20-25 though even if some preference juggles some names around order wise.

It's starting to look like a pretty good farm, and another big IFA signing or two, a few more FV40+/FV40 guys from Castro/Walker/Urena/Romo/Rojas, a Rule V pick, and another top 3-5 and 35-45 selection in 2020 draft is starting to look pretty intense considering there are years of control left for Alfaro, Anderson, Brinson, Caleb, Pablo, Alcantara, Richards, Anderson, Cooper, H. Ramirez, Elisier, Sierra, Dean, etc.

It's time to open the bank in free agency.

[tjfla]

Can't wait to see J2 signings. 3 commits with Salas the big name right now. In on Yo Sanchez and Cappe too however

[Nick]

Gallen with another fantastic outing.

[lou]

Gallen with another fantastic outing.

Maybe I didn't move him up enough in list above. Also, Diaz hit another dong too.