8/16 - 8/22 Minor League Game Thread

[Lee Stone]

"It's just a solid example IMO that minor league stats aren't predictive of future success for all of the reasons you mentioned above. I think we're all on the same page there, except for 2 people."

That seems like a blank page to be stuck on. In the words of David Hume: "A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence." Stats are baseball's evidence - totally removed from subjective opinion. Players are defined by their stats, paid according to them, and ultimately judged by them. Wonderful minor league stats don't guarantee success at the major league level, but they do insure the opportunity to get there.

[lou]

"It's just a solid example IMO that minor league stats aren't predictive of future success for all of the reasons you mentioned above. I think we're all on the same page there, except for 2 people."

That seems like a blank page to be stuck on. In the words of David Hume: "A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence." Stats are baseball's evidence - totally removed from subjective opinion. Players are defined by their stats, paid according to them, and ultimately judged by them. Wonderful minor league stats don't guarantee success at the major league level, but they do insure the opportunity to get there.

Not really, this is again a problem of your own creation. What you're blatantly missing here is, how one accumulates those stats is very very very important, and what do those stats tell you about future performance. You can hit .300, but if your BABIP is .400, is that player good? Probably not. You're probably doing backflips thinking that guy is a .300 hitter and shocked when he hits .220 the next year. How is a pitcher getting outs? Control, or overpowering hitters? Are you Jeremy Hermida, taking walks from AA pitchers with low control, and sitting on breaking balls to pound because you can't (sadly) hit a fastball? Likewise, I guess no player has ever changed his swing path, arm angle, etc. to prospectively change his valuation? No such thing as launch angles right? Past stats are irrelevant at that point if there is not a consistent sample size of a player accumulating them a certain way. They are but a piece of the puzzle in figuring out if you got a good player (albeit, an important one).

You get all hyped up about older age prospects demolishing 21 year olds with control and moderate secondary pitches because they have a good whip in Jupiter, and then Ben Meyer 2018 happens. He has absolutely sucked this year and he was your favorite guy. You had him above Alcantara and Guzman (lol). This is what happens every year with these kind of guys. If you totally ignore guy's overall profile, ignore they may not have 50+ grade pitches, and solely look at "what have you done lately for me stats", you're going to get killed on evaluation. There is a reason the entire scouting community of baseball considers Alcantara and Guzman two of the better pitching prospects in the game. Don't you think you should defer to the judgement of people who are smarter than all of us?

[Lee Stone]

Not really, this is again a problem of your own creation. What you're blatantly missing here is, how one accumulates those stats is very very very important, and what do those stats tell you about future performance. You can hit .300, but if your BABIP is .400, is that player good? Probably not. You're probably doing backflips thinking that guy is a .300 hitter and shocked when he hits .220 the next year. How is a pitcher getting outs? Control, or overpowering hitters? Are you Jeremy Hermida, taking walks from AA pitchers with low control, and sitting on breaking balls to pound because you can't (sadly) hit a fastball? Likewise, I guess no player has ever changed his swing path, arm angle, etc. to prospectively change his valuation? No such thing as launch angles right? Past stats are irrelevant at that point if there is not a consistent sample size of a player accumulating them a certain way. They are but a piece of the puzzle in figuring out if you got a good player (albeit, an important one).

You get all hyped up about older age prospects demolishing 21 year olds with control and moderate secondary pitches because they have a good whip in Jupiter, and then Ben Meyer 2018 happens. He has absolutely sucked this year and he was your favorite guy. You had him above Alcantara and Guzman (lol). This is what happens every year with these kind of guys. If you totally ignore guy's overall profile, ignore they may not have 50+ grade pitches, and solely look at "what have you done lately for me stats", you're going to get killed on evaluation. There is a reason the entire scouting community of baseball considers Alcantara and Guzman two of the better pitching prospects in the game. Don't you think you should defer to the judgement of people who are smarter than all of us?

Meyer hasn't worked out, but his stats earned him a shot. Stats led me to see C. Smith and T. Richards as starters prior to the season also - while the smart people had penciled in Conley and Nicolino. I have been proven very wrong about Peters also, but again, he had his shot. Alcantara and Guzman have been dropping in the eyes of pundits and statisticians.

As to those smarter people, don't give them credit until they earn it. They are wrong as often as they are right.

[Nick]

Meyer hasn't worked out, but his stats earned him a shot. Stats led me to see C. Smith and T. Richards as starters prior to the season also - while the smart people had penciled in Conley and Nicolino. I have been proven very wrong about Peters also, but again, he had his shot. Alcantara and Guzman have been dropping in the eyes of pundits and statisticians.

As to those smarter people, don't give them credit until they earn it. They are wrong as often as they are right.

Who are these smart people that penciled in Conley and Nicolino.

Nicolino is actually a great example of a guy who put up great numbers in the minor leagues at one point, but clearly never had the stuff to make it in the big leagues.

[fish16]

I think everyone was done with Nicolino about 2 years ago. That guy is a shining example of why stuff matters and context matters when looking at minor league stats.

[Lee Stone]

Who are these smart people that penciled in Conley and Nicolino.

Nicolino is actually a great example of a guy who put up great numbers in the minor leagues at one point, but clearly never had the stuff to make it in the big leagues.

Preseason previews and mlb.com depth chart

[fish16]

Monte Harrison is having a really good august. Let him start next year in AA and then move to AAA after a month or 2 and then have him ready for 2020 with hopefully better plate discipline.

- - - - - - - - - -

Brian Schales has also impressed quite a bit this year. Wonder if they start him in AAA next year or let him repeat AA and try to dominate for a month or 2 and then move him up hopefully

[geemoney]

8/21

AAA New Orleans: W, 5-0

B.Lee: 2-3, 2 R, 3B, BB, K
I.Diaz: 0-3, RBI
O'Brien: 1-4, R, HR (8), 3 RBI, K
J.Rodriguez: 1-3, 2B, RBI
Gallen: W, 6 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K
D.Lee: 1 IP, 1 BB, 1 K
Keller: 1 IP, 2 K

AA Jacksonville: W, 3-1

Brinson: 0-4, K
Harrison: 1-3, R, BB, K
Bri.Miller: 3-4, 2 R, 2 SB, CS
Dunand: 1-3, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 K
Pintor: 1-3, 2B
Dugger: W, 7 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 10 K
Eveld: SV, .2 IP, 1 H, 1 K

A+ Jupiter: L, 3-1

Pompey: 1-3, BB, SB
Nelson: 1-4, 2B, K
Mahan: 1-4, 2B, RBI
Bird: 2-4, 2 K
Puckett: L, 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Lemond: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HRA

A Greensboro: L, 3-0 (Game One)

C.Scott: 1-2, BB
T.Jones: 1-3
Banfield: 1-3, 2 K
Encarnacion: 1-3, K
E.Cabrera: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 2 K
Ovalle: L, 2.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HRA

A Greensboro: L, 5-3 (Game Two - Makeup of 8/3 Postponement)

T.Jones: 0-3, R, BB, 2 K, 2 SB
Santos: 1-3, 2B, RBI
I.Soto: 0-2, R, 2 BB
Torres: 1-3, R, BB, K
Clark: L, 5 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Farnworth: 1 IP, 1 K

A- Batavia: L, 9-2

Bradshaw: 2-4, CS
Guaimaro: 1-3, R, 2B, BB, K
Karas: 1-4, R, 2B, 2 K
P.Garcia: 2-3, RBI
A.Guerrero: L, 2 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HRA
Vesia: 3 IP, 1 BB, 4 K
Mitzel: .2 IP, 1 BB, 2 K

GCL Marlins: Idle

DSL Marlins: L, 5-2

Montero: 2-5, 2 R, K, SB
Rosario: 1-4, 2 RBI, K, SB
Sosa: 1-3, BB, SB
Giron: 1-4, 2B, 3 K
Valencio: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Quinonez: L, 2.2 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

[dim]

I didn't read much of the argument above but I really did like King in GBoro and seemed clear he was gonna be a quick riser in the system. That said King was expected to be the kind of pitcher we saw from Caleb Smith in the majors this year before the injury so I don't see that as a bad deal at the moment.

I also think it's once again time to celebrate the Mariners trades the Marlins did in the offseason. Robert Dugger has a 1.65 ERA in August (even better if you count his 7 inning shutout on July 30). I don't know the story but it seems his early season struggles are more an outlier than anything (and that he gave up a ton of home runs).

I actually forgot a bit about Brian Miller since his Jacksonville call up. Miller is one of the rare players I've seen to do really well in Jupiter then struggle in Jacksonville. Usually its the other way around.

Peter O'Brien has 7 home runs in the last 9 days. Saying he's on fire would be an understatement.

[fauowls44]

I guess it's time to start paying closer attention to Dugger. 8 quality starts in his past 10.

O'Brien would be a much better option on the Marlins bench than Rivera, but I'm sure they won't call him up until September.

[fish16]

Ya Dugger looks like another interesting mid-back of the rotation guy to evaluate the next few years. Pompey just keeps hitting. Monte has been very hot. Connor Scott has been really good in Greensboro. Id like to see OBrien get a call up in September to see what he can do. Clearly he has power and if it can translate to the big league level it can really help considering our lack of power.

[Nick]

Brinson 1-18 at AA.

[lou]

Meyer hasn't worked out, but his stats earned him a shot. Stats led me to see C. Smith and T. Richards as starters prior to the season also - while the smart people had penciled in Conley and Nicolino. I have been proven very wrong about Peters also, but again, he had his shot. Alcantara and Guzman have been dropping in the eyes of pundits and statisticians.

As to those smarter people, don't give them credit until they earn it. They are wrong as often as they are right.

Earning him a shot (which we all agree he should have gotten) is different then proclaiming him better then Alcantara and Guzman as a prospect. Smart people actually liked Meyer before the year (you gotta scroll down but he is there https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-...miami-marlins/) so it's not like no one has ever heard of him. Richards is certainly an amazing success story.

But there is still something to be said for giving credence to guys who scout for a living - even if it is an imperfect science and they are often wrong. That's why you get so much criticism here. Just dial it back and think, yea I might like this fringe guy, and he may actually work out as plenty of guys do out of nowhere and turn out better then top prospects (Hermida), but let's not suggest a guy is all of a sudden a top 75 prospect, better than unanimously ranked prospects, based on a single season sample size where he is old for his level. That's it.

[Nick]

It's way early, but Pompey is putting up a super-impressive OBP. It's so hard to find an athletic top of the order type guy with great patience at the plate. Really hope he turns out to be that type of player.

[Lee Stone]

It's way early, but Pompey is putting up a super-impressive OBP. It's so hard to find an athletic top of the order type guy with great patience at the plate. Really hope he turns out to be that type of player.

I'll be crucified for saying so but I'm liking Rafael Ortega for the reasons you state. He is patient, has an amazing feel for the strike zone, and uses the whole field. He can also play CF. I like everything about him.