New Orleans: Justin Nicolino, LHP

[HUGG]

Acquired from Toronto in The Great Purge of 2012

MLBPipeline.com #4 prospect

Scouting grades: Fastball: 45 | Curveball: 50 | Cutter: 50 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 65 | Overall: 50

Drafted by the Blue Jays in 2010, Nicolino was dealt to the Marlins in the teams' blockbuster trade in November 2012. He excelled statistically in 2014 with Double-A Jacksonville, and was named the Southern League Pitcher of the Year after leading the circuit in ERA, WHIP and wins.

Rather than pure stuff, Nicolino's success is based on his pitchability and impeccable control. He doesn't miss many bats, and his strikeout totals have fallen in each of the last three seasons, even as he throws more innings. But Nicolino knows how to get hitters out. He creates a lot of weak contact, pounds the zone with all four of his pitches and works efficiently, averaging just over 13 pitches per inning in 2014.

Nicolino played for Marlins manager Mike Redmond in 2011 with Class A Lansing in the Blue Jays system. Nicolino could soon be a part of Redmond's team again, this time in the Major Leagues.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=mia

John Sickels #4 Prospect

4) Justin Nicolino, LHP, Grade B-: Age 23, 2.85 ERA with 81/20 K/BB in 170 innings in Double-A, 162 hits. Call me a fascist but I do worry about the lack of strikeouts. Extremely good control, of course, fastball, curve, change-up. Profile reminds me of Allan Anderson, who led the American League in ERA in 1988. Does anyone remember him?

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/...pects-for-2015


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6ip 3ha 0er(1r) 1bb 5k tonight.

6ip 5ha 0er 2bb 4k in his last start.

Nice to see him not giving up 8+ hits with 2k for a change.

[MiamiHomer]

Does he at least get a ton of ground balls?

[HUGG]

44.5% last season, so no

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2014 2215 pitches 164 swinging strikes 7.4%
2015 250 pitches 27 swinging strikes 10.8%

sample size; but still, nice to see

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He only averaged 80 pitches per start last season. Averaged 6 innings.

And so far this year it's been 85(4.2)-80(6)-85(6).

[dim]

The man just rarely gives up runs. Doesn't matter if it's A ball, AA, or AAA, he does the same thing at every level. I'm not calling him an ace or #2 caliber pitching prospect, but he's interesting to follow. Guy works quick, doesn't walk batters and is basically the fly ball equivalent of Henderson Alvarez.

[HUGG]

Most of those guys fail when they come up. That's why I have a hard time getting real excited about him.





But, I'm not saying he'll definitely fail and I certainly don't want him to.





If he keeps putting up lines like the last 2 games, I'll be more intrigued. Either way, I don't know how I feel about the potential of him, Alvarez and Cosart striking out 5 per 9 as 60% of our longerish-term rotation.

[emkayseven]

Marlins LHP Justin Nicolino, Triple-A New Orleans: 6 IP, 3 H, R, BB, 5 K -- It was a bit baffling that Nicolino struck out just 4.3 batters per nine innings in Double-A last year, as his stuff should play better than that. He's induced more swings and misses this year, punching out 6.5 batters per nine. The 23-year-old isn't a power pitcher and he's pitched to contact effectively as a pro, but his prospect stock will get a nice boost if he continues to strike out Pacific Coast League hitters at this current clip.

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp..._milb&sid=milb

[nny]

I'm praying for Mark Buehrle, who didn't get strike out in his (albeit limited) time in the minors either and also is a control/FB pitcher.

There's been several control/FB pitchers who aren't bad (eg Paul Byrd had a career ERA+ of 103, Jeremy Guthrie 102, Bronson Arroyo 103) so I'm pretty sure he could be a four-ish, maybe three-ish guy. But Buehrle's the only one I can think of that's really been above average, and still his indicator stats are around the other guys's. So it's not a great outlook BUT LET'S PRAY FOR THE OUTLIER