SFM's 2011 Number Nine Prospect

[Miamarlin21]

Number One- Matt Dominguez, 3B
Number Two- Chad James, LHP
Number Three- Brad Hand, LHP
Number Four- Christian Yelich, OF
Number Five-Edgar Olmos, LHP
Number Six- Kyle Skipworth, C
Number Seven- Rob Rasmussen, LHP
Number Eight- Jhan Marinez, RHP


Vote and discuss


Voting ends in 2 days.

[lou]

Ozzy. Close to majors, has good bench, maybe moderate starter, potential if defense is real and hits a little.

Ozuna is next for me. I am still scared of his K numbers at the level, and he's not an up the middle guy.

[nny]

Late and pointless now but Ozzy shoulda been ahead of Jhan imo after looking into it more

If Ozzy is a upper 600 OPS with average defense at SS, that's a 2 WAR player.

For a reliever to put up a 2 WAR, he has to have a sub 2.5 FIP (If you buy into fangraphs method) or sub 2.5 ERA (If you buy into B-R's) (As well as needing to be used in high leverage situations, but we should assume that's a given for a well-thought of RP prospect). I personally buy into the ERA method more, but still, what's the chances Jhan puts up a sub 2.5 ERA? Much lower than the chances Ozzy puts up an upper 600 OPS.

Relievers are probably overrated for prospects.

For fangraphs method, you get about 10 RP that are able to surpass a 2 WAR. For B-R's, that's 20. If you make the cut off for 60 IP for relievers, that's 88 guys (or, roughly 3 main rp per team). That means roughly 11% (fangraphs) to 22% (B-R) relievers are worth 2 WAR. In other words, only the top RP in the league are able to put up a 2 WAR.

Meanwhile, roughly half of the SS are. In other words, a top 10-20% RP is worth a top 50% SS. An average SS is worth a 2.50 ERA RP.

If we assume Jhan is in the 3-3.5 range, we're talking about a 1-1.5 WAR. And I don't buy much into his upside (sub-2 ERA guy) considering he will likely struggle against left handers as well as his huge fly ball tendencies.