SFM's 2011 Number Four Prospect

[Miamarlin21]

Number One-Matt Dominguez, 3B
Number Two- Chad James, LHP
Number Three- Brad Hand, LHP


Vote and discuss


Voting ends in two days.

[Jay]

Koehler deserves to be an option before Elih.

That said I voted for Ozzy and probably would have went with Olmos otherwise. Just don't have Yelich as that guy you can put that high when hes played 12 pro games.

[wanks1212]

Yeah, Koehler should be an option now.

[Erick]

I went with Skipworth.

His .OBP #'s and K/BB ratios are horrible, but he's still shown plenty of power, is still catching, and is still very young. Catchers take a little longer to develop.

That intrigues me more than a guy who seems to have a similar skillset/will wind up playing the same position as James Loney (although Yelich is still really young, and obviously still has a lot of room for improvement, as well).

[Ralph]

Olmos. Looking at the farm much closer it's not as bad as I thought.

[nny]

Yelich is a LFer until he's not a LF, people need to stop labeling him a 1b because that's what people outside our FO said he was prior to the draft. He's now ours, FO says he is LF, so he is LFer.

But Olmos. I don't see how you can not vote for him here if you went with James and Hand. His upside is around theres, though the lowest of the three. And as far as performance goes, although he does get a red mark for being a year older then those two in Greensboro, it's also because of injuries.

Parenthesis = Olmos's rank
K% (3rd): 0.2% less than James, 1.1% less than Hand.
Swinging K% (3rd): 1.8% less than James, 0.7% less than Hand.
uBB% (1st): 1.6% better than James, 0.1% better than Hand
WP% (1st): 2.2% better than James, 2.6% better than Hand
HBP% (3rd): 2% worse than James, 1.8% worse than Hand

BABIP (2nd): 0.003 better than James, 0.014 worse than Hand.
OFFB% (3rd): 2.5% worse than James, 3.2% worse than Hand.
HR/FB% (2nd): 5.5% worse than James, 2.1% better than Hand.
2B/H% (2nd): 2.3% better than James, 2.6% better than Hand
XBH% (3rd) 0.7% worse than James, 0.3% worse than Hand

ERA (1st): 0.75 better than James, 0.49 better than Hand
FIP (2nd): 0.45 worse than James, 0.20 better than Hand
xFIP (2nd): 0.08 better than James, 0.18 worse than Hand

Bit worse stuff, bit worse batted ball data, but bit better control.


So if you voted for James and Hand above Yelich, but Yelich over Olmos, my question is: Why? Olmost is EASILY the worst of that trio. But that's not saying much, he is the SAME exact mold of young tall left hander that gets strike outs and ground balls and needs to improve in control and he is right behind them in both performance and potential. If this was a case of similar potential but worse performance, or worse potential but similar performance, then yeah. But it's not.

[Miamarlin21]

Shit, I always forget someone. Sorry guys. The limitation of only 10 choices is a real big bitch in this process.

[lou]

You said the counter argument - but worse stuff.

How is he going to look moving forward? James has the superior offspeed pitches, Hand is the farthest along in the system and has the best curve in the organization. Olmos is a little behind them even if he does have a low 90s fastball and projected plus curve, and I suppose we have to worry slightly about injury concerns with him.

I don't think it's unreasonable to put first round position players ahead of him. Yea that means Skip too. But I'd say he should be with Rasmussen and Marinez as the next arms
off. I'm optimistic Koehler and Elih aren't seriously considered for at least 8- 10 more picks.

[Jay]

Olmos is a year older then James. I don't know what happened with Olmos in 08 and 09 but he did make some starts in rookie ball so he has worked within the system longer than James. Hand is the furthest along in the system and has already improved his control. Olmos is a step behind James and Hand.

I did think about Koehler but he is like 3-4 picks off at least.

[Erick]

Yelich is a LFer until he's not a LF, people need to stop labeling him a 1b because that's what people outside our FO said he was prior to the draft. He's now ours, FO says he is LF, so he is LFer.

Okay, but does that really make things any better for him? LF is an offensive-oriented position; what's the kid's realistic projection with the bat? Obviously he's still very young and doesn't have much of a minor league career, but based on scouting reports, he's not exactly a legit power hitter or anything. I believe Loney was his ML projection when he was drafted.

It would be much better if his athletic ability allowed him to transition nicely to CF. I, personally, think that would improve his prospect status a lot.

I got the order of the first three prospects correctly based on the board vote, but it seems like I'll be in the minority going with Skipworth at #4.

[Fish and Chips]

I believe Mark Grace and John Olerud were thrown out there more than Loney. And there has been discussion of Yelich being a CF too.

[nny]

Right, he's behind those two. He's worse than both of them, I said as much and showed as much. But not by a large margin. If both of them are ahead of Yelich, IMO he should be too. Yelich right now is projected to be, what, Gaby in LF? He's probably roughly average defensively in LF (Giving him the benefit of fixing his throwing motion) and average on the base paths; So if his expected OPS is upper .700, that's a 2-3 WAR player. Problem is he has limited upside because he has limited power. He was drafted in the first round in a very weak draft and was a questionable first round talent for that weak draft.

Olmos right now is looking like a mid rotation starter; Or, 2-3 WAR. Difference is upside. Olmos has it with his build, Yelich is limited. Yeah, maybe Yelich gets power that isn't expected like A-Gon but probably not.

And Olmos dealt with injuries prior to this year, which is why he didn't do much 08-09

[Erick]

Right, he's behind those two. He's worse than both of them, I said as much and showed as much. But not by a large margin. If both of them are ahead of Yelich, IMO he should be too. Yelich right now is projected to be, what, Gaby in LF? He's probably roughly average defensively in LF (Giving him the benefit of fixing his throwing motion) and average on the base paths; So if his expected OPS is upper .700, that's a 2-3 WAR player. Problem is he has limited upside because he has limited power. He was drafted in the first round in a very weak draft and was a questionable first round talent for that weak draft.

Olmos right now is looking like a mid rotation starter; Or, 2-3 WAR. Difference is upside. Olmos has it with his build, Yelich is limited. Yeah, maybe Yelich gets power that isn't expected like A-Gon but probably not.

And Olmos dealt with injuries prior to this year, which is why he didn't do much 08-09

Yeah, this.

I feel the same way about Yelich; only difference is you went with Olmos, and I went with Skipworth. Skipworth probably has the best odds of becoming an all-out bust, but I feel like he has the best upside of the three considering his power, and the position he plays. Just my opinion.

[nny]

While yeah his position is a huge thing, Skipworth's strike outs are going to hold him way too much back. If he puts up a low .700 OPS (Which, keep in mind, is what he put up in Greensboro) with average defense, you're looking at a 1.5-2.5 WAR player.

And even then it's hard to say he could put up a low .700 OPS with his strike outs. His current power is not particular impressive - Too lazy to park factor but .177 ISO from a 20 year old in Greensboro is not all too great. Certainly good but no where near enough considering his BB and K.

[Mainge]

Straight from Yelich via facebook chat interview:

just been playing outfield lately
i like it better

arms gotten better..cleaned up my mechanics been playing CF and LF

--------------------
Probably worth noting that the mechanics bit came unprompted. Obviously it's been a point of improvement for him