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**Metes** · 07-28-2009, 02:19 PM

http://floridamarlinsminors.blogspot...ue-update.html

**Malman** · 07-28-2009, 07:51 PM

#21...fucker.

**nny** · 07-29-2009, 04:05 PM

mid-seasonish update?

Without putting too much thought into it I'd have something like (maybe behind Stanton and West behind Morrison and Coghlan behind probably DoMing if they were available)

1.Stanton
2.Morrison
3.Dominguez
4.Tucker
5.Winters
6.Kaminska
7.Sanabia
8.James
9.Smolinski
10.Skipworth
11.Cousins
12.Sanchez

with 4-8 being really interchangable

**Ramp** · 07-29-2009, 04:25 PM

I knew I should have written down what lou and I were discussing the other day. Yea, I like that list alot. Might have Thompson close too, but I am higher on him than most

**lou** · 07-29-2009, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by nny View Post

mid-seasonish update?

Without putting too much thought into it I'd have something like (maybe behind Stanton and West behind Morrison and Coghlan behind probably DoMing if they were available)

1.Stanton
2.Morrison
3.Dominguez
4.Tucker
5.Winters
6.Kaminska
7.Sanabia
8.James
9.Smolinski
10.Skipworth
11.Cousins
12.Sanchez

with 4-8 being really interchangable

Off the top of my head, and assuming Maybin, Tucker (I think he didn't qualify last year too but we all ignored that), G. Sanchez, Coghlan, West, and Leroux graduations...

1. Stanton
2. Morrison
3. Dominguez
4. James
5. Skipworth < - Gets it on rep for one more year because we have no sure things below
6. Smolinski
7. Thompson < - taking the lefty
8. Sanabia
9. Hand
10. Cousins
11. Kaminska
12. Berglund
13. Cishek < - Next year's "out of nowhere" Leroux
14. Sinkbeil < - Giving it to him for RP potential
15. Winters
16. Petersen
17. Galloway
18. Andrelczyk
19. Trahern
20. Raynor
No Idea - Ceda

Really open for discussion. Just gave it 5 minutes of thought.

**nny** · 07-29-2009, 05:57 PM

Just a run down on thoughts of some guys

Smolinski isn't having that good of a year:

actually he's doing better than I thought, he's K rate has dropped.

But while greensboro H and 2b are basically neutral, it has a HR factor of 1.39. This drops his already unimpressive HR/FB of 11.1% to 8%, dropping his HR total to 5, dropping his iso from a pretty good .173 to .145. Well. That really isn't bad for a 20 year old in A ball.

And also you can make a major arguement about his BABIP. He has a 20.4% LD rate and 44.2% GB rate and just a BABIP of .287. Adjusting for "luck" puts him at a .350 BABIP. He obviously won't do that in the majors though and probably should be expected for a .300-.310 BABIP

ok I guess after looking more into I'm wrong. For some reason I thought he was doing a lot worse than he was. Here's breakdown of him v.s. cogs (not apt comparision cuz cogs was 2 years older but still)

BB%:
Cogs-13%
Smol-12.5%
K%:
Cogs-14.3%
Smol-16.4%
ISO:
Cogs-.209
Smol-.173
Adjusted ISO;
Cogs-.180
Smol-.145
BABIP:
Cogs-.348
Smol-.287

So when you then take into account Smol "should" have a .350 BABIP that means they're having very similar years, and Smol should basically be at Cogs B- to B status he was after that year. Of note he also has a higher HR/FB than Cogs did and Cogs was two years older (Unadjusted - 11% v.s. 8%, adjusted 8% v.s. 6%) so you have to expect those iso's to even out. right now I expect the same ML iso out of both of them, around .130

Thompson-
Still unimpressed with K/BB. The only thing that has changed from this year to last year is a normalization of his HR/FB and BABIP. However, pitchers minor league stats aren't like hitters stats where they overlap to the ML level. Still, with just a 1.74 K/BB, I'm holding out on him being above guys like Sanabia and Kaminska.

Hand is a more interesting case though and is something that is just hard with list. He has the most upside of our A ball guys, but I've been growing so much more towards production over potential lately. Not to throw potential away of coarse, but not to put everything in it.

and fuck Sink. Yeah yeah 3.66 ERA since going RP. He also has 15 walks (5 BB/9) to just 16 Ks. argg fuck that draft class.
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Oh and for defense

I came across a minor league fielding stat that basically replicates UZR, but only gets updated after the year

Raynor really is useless

-3 runs career LF in 208 games. I mean yeah not horrible basically average but common you have a 9 SPD score. scouting reports = right for as much as I didn't want to believe them with his speed.

Cousins = cool. +7 runs in RF in 136 games and that DOESN'T include arm.

**Bucklin12** · 07-29-2009, 06:04 PM

Winters being that low is my only real discrepancy... my lists always tend to focus on youth and upside too much, and I don't throw a lot of value in RPs, but take this for what it is. (according to the qualifications above from Lou)

1. Stanton
2. Morrison
3. Dominguez
4. Sanabia
5. Winters
6. Skipworth
7. James
8. Smolinski
9. Thompson
10. Kaminska
11. Hand
12. Galloway
13. J. Miller <---24 yr old putting it together in AAA
14. G. Johnson
15. B. Petersen
16. Cousins
17. Andrelczyk
18. Berglund
19. C. Peterson
20. M. Ozuna

**nny** · 07-29-2009, 06:07 PM

Oh for Carroll it had him at +29 runs over his career in RF (about +9 over a full season)

and again, doesn't include what is possibly best arm in majors

I really want to see what he does playing everyday. I don't care if it's a .700 OPS in the 8 hole, +15 runs on defense is huge.
--------------------

Originally posted by Bucklin12 View Post

13. J. Miller <---24 yr old putting it together in AAA

still striking out 27% of the time

Certainly improvement over his 33% career mark though lol

and no way his .370 BABIP translates. going by speed score he is only has average baseball speed.

His increase in power is cool but I just have severe doubts he could even hit about .240 in the show
--------------------
wtf quote
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test[/quote]

test
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ok there we go quote fixed
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speaking of K's and speaking of my change in philosophy, i've grown to despise K's

You have a K rate over 25% = I don't like you

You have a K rate between 20-25% = I'm not exactly ahppy

You have a K rate 15-20% = yeah you're cool

under 15% = you turn me on
--------------------
and with my change of smolinski he's probably behind doming now, maybe a couple pitchers over him
--------------------

Originally posted by lou View Post

Tucker (I think he didn't qualify last year too but we all ignored that)

Only had 37 IP and all prospect places included BA ranked him. Why don't you think he qualified, days on ML roster?

45 days on roster prior to september and you lose rookie status

from my calculations he had exactly 45 days lol

June 8th - July 23rd

so question there for sure

well

I don't think the 23rd would count?

that would make 44

**lou** · 07-29-2009, 08:09 PM

I'm going with the thought Smolinski develops into a pretty cool 2B in the mold of Coghlan. I know his stats aren't screaming it, but I think he is projectable. Especially at the middle infield slot. I'll give Skip the projectable argument too.

As for Jai Miller, it's all against LHP. I can't put him in the top 20 for that. Need to hit right handers for me to take you seriously.

I thought Sink was doing a little better. I think I'd still put him in the top 20, below Andre 3000, and move up Winters. I obviously don't like him as much as you guys, but hope he proves me wrong.

Also, Cishek is pretty sweet. I know it's Jupiter, but I like him.

**nny** · 07-29-2009, 10:49 PM

going back to hand I didn't realize how good he's done past 3 months

well how good in relative terms

Excluding his 18 ERA April

4.01 BB/9

7.81 K/9

0.87 HR/9

and gotta love the GB rate hovering around 50

certainly want more k's and less walks but oh well

4.34 ERA, 4.06 FIP

Not amazing but farcry from his season line

**Fish and Chips** · 07-29-2009, 11:05 PM

Is it just me or does it seems like our overall's minor league talent took a step back?

I mean yeah the top-level talent is there: Stanton, Morrison, Maybin, Dominguez, West
but it seems like the overall depth has been sliding, with injury: Tucker, RVH, Ceda, or generally underperformed: Shitworth, Hickman, and others i dont cared to mention

Not to mention the 2009 draft is not overly impressive and seems like a very cheap and full of signable picks.

Of course you expect to regress when you're the 2nd minor league system, cause there basically nowhere to go but down.

**Ramp** · 07-29-2009, 11:08 PM

def took a step back

although Sanabia, Kaminska are nice surprises

**Bucklin12** · 07-29-2009, 11:34 PM

With the arms... Kaminska has been really good and I think Hand has improved dramatically and shown he is legit. Sanabia and Winters (even with the injury) I think made some significant moves in their development. Some pleasant surprises from Graham Johnson and Curtis Peterson is pitching well in Jamestown. Villanueva and Allison haven't been horrible, and Koehler has had success in Gboro not that it means much. It's been nice to see Thompson have a consistent year. Plus we got two big time HS arms coming in the system. The greatest news is RVH though. I love how he's comeback to dominate AAA and show some legitimacy in the majors.

Disappointed that no young arm really broke out, maybe except Sanabia. I thought Brewer was going to do some stuff this year too. The whole PJ Dean thing blows, and I'm not sure what to think about West right now. Overall though, pretty decent stuff from the arms. No one blew up, but most showed solid improvement.

With the bats, I'm just amped none of the big guns flamed out. Maybin really swinging well in AAA, Stanton beginning to figure out AA after killing Jupiter and still showing insane power, Morrison somehow walks like 50% of his PAs now, and Domingo has had a killer second half in Jupiter. Smolinski has been good, and Ike Galloway has been okayish. There are also some 09 guys worth watching in Jamestown. Jensen is a 2nd round talent who had an off year and is now killing it SS. I think he could move quickly. Dickerson has been okay, and Stonecipher has been solid as well (not to mention he's younger than Smolinski). Jose Torres also has put together a nice run in Jamestown as an 18 year old if you take away his abysmal start. I also think Marcell Ozuna is for real, and he's been the best young hitter in the GCL all summer.

Definitely some disappointments though. Cousins has been crazy inconsistent, and Petersen lost his power. Skipworth is whatever.

So yeah... step back. Not huge though. Weak draft I think effects it more than weak performances. If one or two guys would've stepped up big time (Skip and Hand), we'd be looking a lot different.

**nny** · 07-29-2009, 11:41 PM

what was winters injury?

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