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This is a thread aimed mostly to those new to the game. So if you played before, you likely know this. But I think it's important that people new to the league have a better understanding of the game.
So with the prospect draft coming up somewhat soon, I thought I'd address something important: what exactly to look for when asking "will he fill out or will he bust."
The number one thing: age. In OOTP, once a player hits 26, he basically completely stops developing. He could still get a rate up*, but he will no longer develop ratings on his own. So it doesn't matter if a player has 5 star potential rating, if he's over 26 he's only as good as his overall ratings are.
*The game somewhat randomly gives "rate ups" and "rate downs". Ups gives the player better overall and potential ratings, down vice-versa. I say "somewhat randomly" because it seems that players who are doing very well may be more prone to a rate up, while players who are struggling may be more prone to a rate down, but again it's still random. How strong the ratings change are random, could barely make a difference or could turn a superstar into a nobody and a nobody into a superstar. Players of all ages can get rate ups and downs. You can see who on your team has gotten rate ups/downs by clicking the "Development Report" on your team home page.
It's also important to understanding how a prospect will develop in the minors. If a player is 21 and in AAA, he very likely will completely develop. Meanwhile, a 24 year old in Rookie ball likely has no chance of developing, because he has so little time left and is so far from his potential.
The second thing: Work Ethic (aka WE) and Intelligence (aka INT). You can find these ratings under the "Personality" section on the main screen of a players page. These two ratings really help in a players development.
Let's give an example. In this past round of the ML draft, I was stuck between taking JJ Hardy and Aaron Hill to take my SS position. I was talking to PWG and it basically came to he was going to pick the one I didn't take.
Even though Aaron hill is essentially 25 (He turns 25 in late March, meaning he only has this season and next spring training to develop) and is only 1 star overall, because he has an INT of 89 and a WE of 85, he will very likely completely fill out.
Meanwhile, JJ hardy is 24 so he has two years to develop, and ontop of which he already has two and a half stars overall rating. However, because his INT is 48 and his WE is a bad 25, the chances of him completely filling out are a lot worse than Aaron Hill's.
I ended up going with JJ because I feel that even if he doesn't fill out completely, he'll still get some rating increase, making him comparable to Hill offensively in the long run, but Hardy helps me more now.
This is also why Ian Snell fell down to the 5th round while comparable pitchers were picked in the second and third. Being 25 and having a WE of 15, he probably won't fill out much more.
WE though also plays another important roll: Players with high WE are less prone to slumps, and will break out of slumps faster than player with low WE. So it's a pretty important secondary trait to pay attention to even to players who are no longer prospects.
So when looking at prospects, make sure you pay attention to those things. Like using the example above, a 3 star 21 year old prospect in AAA with high WE/INT is more valuable than a 5 star 24 year old prospect in R with horrible WE/INT. Even though he has considerable less potential, the 3 star prospect is a lot more likely to help your major league team. Meanwhile the 5 star prospect probably shouldn't even be considered a prospect any more.
So with the prospect draft coming up somewhat soon, I thought I'd address something important: what exactly to look for when asking "will he fill out or will he bust."
The number one thing: age. In OOTP, once a player hits 26, he basically completely stops developing. He could still get a rate up*, but he will no longer develop ratings on his own. So it doesn't matter if a player has 5 star potential rating, if he's over 26 he's only as good as his overall ratings are.
*The game somewhat randomly gives "rate ups" and "rate downs". Ups gives the player better overall and potential ratings, down vice-versa. I say "somewhat randomly" because it seems that players who are doing very well may be more prone to a rate up, while players who are struggling may be more prone to a rate down, but again it's still random. How strong the ratings change are random, could barely make a difference or could turn a superstar into a nobody and a nobody into a superstar. Players of all ages can get rate ups and downs. You can see who on your team has gotten rate ups/downs by clicking the "Development Report" on your team home page.
It's also important to understanding how a prospect will develop in the minors. If a player is 21 and in AAA, he very likely will completely develop. Meanwhile, a 24 year old in Rookie ball likely has no chance of developing, because he has so little time left and is so far from his potential.
The second thing: Work Ethic (aka WE) and Intelligence (aka INT). You can find these ratings under the "Personality" section on the main screen of a players page. These two ratings really help in a players development.
Let's give an example. In this past round of the ML draft, I was stuck between taking JJ Hardy and Aaron Hill to take my SS position. I was talking to PWG and it basically came to he was going to pick the one I didn't take.
Even though Aaron hill is essentially 25 (He turns 25 in late March, meaning he only has this season and next spring training to develop) and is only 1 star overall, because he has an INT of 89 and a WE of 85, he will very likely completely fill out.
Meanwhile, JJ hardy is 24 so he has two years to develop, and ontop of which he already has two and a half stars overall rating. However, because his INT is 48 and his WE is a bad 25, the chances of him completely filling out are a lot worse than Aaron Hill's.
I ended up going with JJ because I feel that even if he doesn't fill out completely, he'll still get some rating increase, making him comparable to Hill offensively in the long run, but Hardy helps me more now.
This is also why Ian Snell fell down to the 5th round while comparable pitchers were picked in the second and third. Being 25 and having a WE of 15, he probably won't fill out much more.
WE though also plays another important roll: Players with high WE are less prone to slumps, and will break out of slumps faster than player with low WE. So it's a pretty important secondary trait to pay attention to even to players who are no longer prospects.
So when looking at prospects, make sure you pay attention to those things. Like using the example above, a 3 star 21 year old prospect in AAA with high WE/INT is more valuable than a 5 star 24 year old prospect in R with horrible WE/INT. Even though he has considerable less potential, the 3 star prospect is a lot more likely to help your major league team. Meanwhile the 5 star prospect probably shouldn't even be considered a prospect any more.
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