Dee Gordon 2B

[nny]

Well, we're talking about a guy with a career .324 obp. Assuming .300 is very harsh. And if keeps being one if the best base runners and best defensive players in baseball, I have no problem with his career line.

And it's not his fault he's in the lead off spot. Plus, like Bob likes to preach, line up construction is more irrelevant than people like to think.

[Jay]

Having men on base when Stanton hits home runs is more relevant than Bob likes to admit. There's a good reason Stanton has hit so many solo shots this year. And yes he doesn't choose his spot in the order and I do believe he's a valuable player due to his defense but his defense carries no weight in a discussion about his offensive production and specifically his spot in the line up. His base running ability doesn't carry as much weight as you guys think hitting lead off. The biggest asset there is not turning into an out with the best hitters coming up.

His only other full year was 2014 so I'll pull up some numbers.
March-April .344/.375/.478
May-September .279/.318/.360
It's starting to look like a trend here. He gets off to an incredibly hot start and then performs sub-par the rest of the year.

Also we talked about those base running stats you use previously and they are missing pick offs. I'm sure it doesn't change much in the result but he probably comes closer to the rest of the league (or drops a couple places).

- - - - - - - - - -

Also his career BABIP is .343, the numbers I used to project the rest of the season from had a .345. His K%-BB% was ~4.5 points higher than his career lines so I should have adjusted the rates somewhat.

[Bobbob1313]

There's a good reason Stanton has hit so many solo shots this year.

Let's think about this one.

Stanton has 274 plate appearances on the season. He has been intentionally walked five times, so let's say Stanton has come to the plate with 269 home run opportunities. The best Marlin in OBP who isn't Gordon or Stanton is Ozuna and Ichiro, at .333. So, if either of those guys were batting leadoff, they would be expected to be on base a slightly fewer than eight times more than your hypothetical .300 OBP Dee Gordon to this point in the season.

Stanton has averaged one home run every 11.9 plate appearances this season, so it seems kind of weird to blame Dee Gordon for that, especially since his on-base percentage is actually .377.

What you'll say in response is that Christian Yelich should actually be hitting leadoff, which is a weird thing to hypothetically say about someone who has been an abject disaster this season, but I'll play along. His career .352 OBP would theoretically put him on based slightly more than 14 times than the hypothetical .300 OBP Dee Gordon (HTOBPDG), which finally gives us one lost Stanton HR with runners on base, assuming that every single Stanton plate appearance has come during an inning in which the leadoff spot had been up previously.

Also, 59% of total home runs around the league come with the bases empty. That number is 65% for Stanton, which comes out to about one more solo home run than would be expected for the average hitter, based on his current pace.

"Stanton has hit a lot of solo home runs" isn't even really a thing that is true, and it's an especially weird thing to try to blame on Dee Gordon.

[nny]

To add to that, harping on pick offs when you have no context around the rest of the league is also meh. Especially saying it'd make him an average runner...

[Bobbob1313]

Let's go a bit more abstract:

Over 739 plate appearances (what the Marlins leadoff spot is projected to rack up this season based on current pace), here are how many times players with various OBP would be expected to reach base:

.300 OBP: 221
.324 OBP: 239
.352 OBP: 260

39 times on base -- the difference between a .352 and a .300 OBP -- isn't nothing, to be certain. The average baserunner in the majors scores 34.9 percent of the time they reach base this season, so you're looking at 13.6 runs lost over the course of a full season, which is a substantial number.

Of course, that assumes that A) Dee Gordon's true talent level is a .300 OBP, and B) Yelich's true talent level is a .352 OBP. If Gordon's true talent level is a .324 OBP, it's more like 7 runs over the course of a season. That isn't insubstantial, by any means, but is it really worth all this gnashing of teeth? I'd like the Marlins to put themselves in the best position to succeed, but we're talking about pretty small margins here.

[Jay]

To add to that, harping on pick offs when you have no context around the rest of the league is also meh. Especially saying it'd make him an average runner...

I specifically said it wouldn't bring him down to average. He'd still be in the elite group of base runners but he might not be the best or at least it's closer in the 2nd of the league.

[Bobbob1313]

In case it's not clear, I'm not saying OBP is overrated or that it isn't better to have a high OBP guy in the leadoff spot. It's just really hard for me to complain about that in this case. The difference we're talking about here is extremely slim.

[Jay]

Let's think about this one.

Stanton has 274 plate appearances on the season. He has been intentionally walked five times, so let's say Stanton has come to the plate with 269 home run opportunities. The best Marlin in OBP who isn't Gordon or Stanton is Ozuna and Ichiro, at .333. So, if either of those guys were batting leadoff, they would be expected to be on base a slightly fewer than eight times more than your hypothetical .300 OBP Dee Gordon to this point in the season.

Stanton has averaged one home run every 11.9 plate appearances this season, so it seems kind of weird to blame Dee Gordon for that, especially since his on-base percentage is actually .377.

What you'll say in response is that Christian Yelich should actually be hitting leadoff, which is a weird thing to hypothetically say about someone who has been an abject disaster this season, but I'll play along. His career .352 OBP would theoretically put him on based slightly more than 14 times than the hypothetical .300 OBP Dee Gordon (HTOBPDG), which finally gives us one lost Stanton HR with runners on base, assuming that every single Stanton plate appearance has come during an inning in which the leadoff spot had been up previously.

Also, 59% of total home runs around the league come with the bases empty. That number is 65% for Stanton, which comes out to about one more solo home run than would be expected for the average hitter, based on his current pace.

"Stanton has hit a lot of solo home runs" isn't even really a thing that is true, and it's an especially weird thing to try to blame on Dee Gordon.

I wasn't blaming Gordon for anything. But can you admit he's been pretty bad for awhile and it isn't just due to luck. Meanwhile, Yelich has been improving and has been unlucky throughout the season and he has the same production that Dee is churning out. It isn't hard to figure out who has the better potential of producing in the near future.

[Bobbob1313]

I wasn't blaming Gordon for anything. But can you admit he's been pretty bad for awhile and it isn't just due to luck. Meanwhile, Yelich has been improving and has been unlucky throughout the season and he has the same production that Dee is churning out. It isn't hard to figure out who has the better potential of producing in the near future.

Dee Gordon has been bad for a while.

Christian Yelich has pretty much been equally bad over the same stretch, and has been significantly worse over the entirety of the season. If we're saying Christian Yelich should be hitting over Dee Gordon in the leadoff spot, we're saying nothing that has happened this season matters at all, which is a supremely strange thing to say.

[Jay]

In case it's not clear, I'm not saying OBP is overrated or that it isn't better to have a high OBP guy in the leadoff spot. It's just really hard for me to complain about that in this case. The difference we're talking about here is extremely slim.

It maybe slim but every bit counts especially when you operate with such a slim margin of error allowed.

On a different note, have you (not just directed at Bob here) ever read anything that utilized simulated data to support a baseball theory? I'd like to see how they went about simulating it so I could do it myself.

[Erick]

I just think it was silly that you wanted him out of the leadoff spot weeks ago when he was hitting like .400.
Ideally, I wouldn't hit him leadoff but I also think that the order of a lineup is rather irrelevant. Also, as long as Dee continues playing the defense he's playing, he's extremely valuable.

[Namaste]

There are a lot of civilized, well informed responses in this thread but I'm always amazed at how much attention these wacky Jay Dee Gordon Is Satan threads get.

Martin Prado is having a career worst OPS season and Jay is harping on Dee Gordon.

[Madman81]

There are a lot of civilized, well informed responses in this thread but I'm always amazed at how much attention these wacky Jay Dee Gordon Is Satan threads get.

Martin Prado is having a career worst OPS season and Jay is harping on Dee Gordon.

Racism.

[Jay]

There are a lot of civilized, well informed responses in this thread but I'm always amazed at how much attention these wacky Jay Dee Gordon Is Satan threads get.

Martin Prado is having a career worst OPS season and Jay is harping on Dee Gordon.

We've been discussing trading Prado for a week now in the could starters be relievers thread. I just don't find it necessary to point out that he is doing horrible when everyone here realizes that already. Dee's been hitting pretty bad for over a month now and people still won't criticize him. He's become this golden boy who cannot be judged. I mean everyone on the forum rips Stanton a new one for not being able to hit 1 pitch but he's a more valuable player than Dee.

[emkayseven]

up to .288 ba .308 obp since May 10th after last night's game #samplesize