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  • 4 Year Plan



    Done this the past couple years, always fun to look at. Was surprisingly accurate last year considering how dirty it is.

    Few notes:
    -* means arbitration eligible/guess payroll
    -Replacement level team is worth 48 wins, so add 48 to the WAR total for total team wins
    -Those WAR numbers are very rough, as are minimum numbers. This is meant as a rough view and not meant to be completely 100% accurate. Just enough to paint a picture.
    -If they're making the minimum, their name really doesn't matter (This especially goes for bench/bullpen). It's just used as a filler piece since it's already rather interchangeable.

    2015

    I have Jose pitching half a season, Heaney the other half. This is a top ~5-10 rotation in baseball with only a half season of Jose, as well as a top ~5-10 bullpen and there's room to think they can outperform this. We definitely don't need pitching.

    Top-5 OF in baseball, definitely don't need help there. And I really think Yelich can outperform my prediction WAR of him in the coming years.

    But we're looking at getting something like 2-3 WAR out of our IF again. Need help.

    I have us as a .500 team next year without any additional gains. We need help in the IF. And with how bad our IF is, anyone decent is a huge upgrade

    2016

    I try not to remove arbitration guys to show a more fuller picture, but this is with Koehler gone because there's almost no chance he breaks next years rotation unless a lot of things shake up. Mathis, Baker, and Jones off the books, but still increase in payroll through arbitrations. Full season of Jose = woo

    2017

    Payroll starts moving up a lot with a lot of guys hitting arbitration, but there is also a LOT of pitchers we can get rid of to save space. Payroll still shouldn't be an issue here

    2018

    Alvarez, Eolvadi, and Cishek gone. Last year of Jose. More arbitration raises. This is where we'll start needing prospects up, mostly in the rotation, because payroll is going to start to hurt.

    TL;DR

    We're currently built like a .500 team the next few years. We need help in the IF (gasp). We have a lotttt of payroll room the next three years, but by 2018 it goes up a lot.

    So we gotta try and focus on 3 year contracts in FA
    --------------------
    I forgot the picture god dammit
    --------------------
    there we go
    --------------------
    Also, we're fucking awesome if we roll out a 100m payroll. LaRoche 2/30, Lowrie 3/30, Headley 4/48, Shields 4/80:



    This is a 90+ win team easily. Was too lazy to make 2018 around 100m, but it's easily done by removing BP arms and shit
    Last edited by nny; 11-19-2014, 03:35 PM. Reason: Doublepost Merged

  • #2
    Is Headley really that much of an upgrade on McGehee?

    Still this is pretty cool.

    If Shields is at all a possibility, he would be #1 on my wish list. Shields is way more of an upgrade to Heaney/Koehler/Desclafani. Than LaRoche would be over Jones, and Lowrie over Kike/Dietrich.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by ¿NICK? View Post
      Is Headley really that much of an upgrade on McGehee?
      1,000 times, yes. He's sooooooooo much better than McGehee.
      poop

      Comment


      • #4
        Headley is one of the top fielding 3b in baseball. Even his "down" year, he posted a 3.5 WAR (compared to McGehee's 1.1). Career 4.1 WAR per 650 PA.

        I think Hanley would be ideal, but I'd rather have Headley over Panda in terms of "top FA 3b." And Headley should be the cheapest of the three.

        Comment


        • #5
          I just think if we're going to go out and replace McGehee at 3rd base, it's gotta be with a middle of the order bat, and Headley is certainly not that.

          Comment


          • #6
            hanley would be loads more fun, but I think Headley makes a lot more sense.

            I'm getting sad because I know it won't happen.
            --------------------
            Originally posted by ¿NICK? View Post
            I just think if we're going to go out and replace McGehee at 3rd base, it's gotta be with a middle of the order bat, and Headley is certainly not that.

            I mean, why? McGehee stinks. Upgrade over him in any way you can.
            Last edited by Bobbob1313; 11-18-2014, 08:36 PM. Reason: Doublepost Merged
            poop

            Comment


            • #7
              Sign Shields, trade Heaney for Justin Morneau.

              Comment


              • #8
                Trading Heaney for 33-year-old Justin Morneau would be terribad.
                --------------------
                They need to find a way to mix short and long-term goals. This team's not close enough that trading for a year of an old Justin Morneau isn't the move to make.
                Last edited by Bobbob1313; 11-18-2014, 09:15 PM. Reason: Doublepost Merged
                poop

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Bobbob1313 View Post
                  Trading Heaney for 33-year-old Justin Morneau would be terribad.
                  --------------------
                  They need to find a way to mix short and long-term goals. This team's not close enough that trading for a year of an old Justin Morneau isn't the move to make.
                  Totally on Morneau. That would be awful.

                  They should make a prudent low profile trade for Valbuena on Cubs. Rock solid 2+ WAR player for 3 seasons, perfect platoon 2B/3B against all right handers. No way Chicago keeps him with what they have. Marlins have a pitching combo to get him and he's an easy sign on a 2-3 year deal to shore up some spot adequately. Someone like Nicolino and a reliever should get thay.

                  Then go big with Cishek and Eovaldi for a young guy position player; use excess cash for Shields/etc.

                  Josh Johnson is probably very cheap on a 1 year deal flyer also.... Just saying

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    It would be really cool to bring Josh Johnson back to where he was best. Hadn't even considered him in all this discussion but when thinking low cost, potential decent reward options Johnson is a fun one to consider, especially if they monitor his innings very closely. A rotation of Alvarez/Cosart/Eovaldi/Koehler with Johnson/Heaney splitting starts or even going with a 6 man rotation to start things off and see which guys take off is a really good idea. Worst comes to worst he gets injured again, we waste something like $2 million and we're back at square one with Hand/Heaney at the end of the rotation. I'd like to see the Marlins go this route rather than spend big bucks on James Shields. Use that money to get Stanton some protection in the lineup.

                    (That being said I don't see JJ coming back after the way things ended even at a last resort situation and he seems to like San Diego. Seems like a fair fit for him and them).

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      How did things end here? He grew up in this organization. We paid him well. We have a ridiculous outfield defense. Gigantic park. He was one of the best pitchers in the league with us.

                      Then we traded him with 1yr left on his deal. The horror.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Not saying it's terrible. But he probably settled his family here and was blindsided being sent to Toronto. Not saying it's impossible but I don't see any of the recent guys we let go, whether it be JJ or Hanley, signing back here just because they're happier somewhere else (Hanley in LA, JJ in SD) and don't want to deal with Loria again.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Well, Hanley is not staying in LA, so that's irrelevant.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            When Valbuena was with the Indians and he was horrible they called him Valmola.
                            LHP Chad James-Jupiter Hammerheads-

                            5-15 3.80 ERA (27 starts) 149.1IP 173H 63ER 51BB 124K

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              JJ shouldn't have been too blindsided. He was a free agent to be and there were rumors to trade him since the trade deadline.

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