Ugh . . . Pending Fire Sale Before July 31

[lou]

I think you guys are under selling the team a bit.

Very simplistically, this is realistic next year IMO:

2 WAR guys - Realmuto, Hechavarria, Prado, 1B platoon (see below)
3 WAR guy - Gordon, Ozuna
4 WAR guy - Yelich
6 WAR guy - Stanton

I don't think that is that crazy based on what we are seeing this 2014-2015 from all of these guys. Do they have to stay healthy? Sure, but they have all done that, or are going to do that this year.

If they can get a guy like Valencia, and use him, Bour, and Dietrich in a real 1B timeshare, it's probably a 2 WAR situation. I know you guys have little faith in them to do things like this, but Bour has 23 PA against LHP and 205 vs RHP. I think that is pretty hard to ignore. There have been reports that Jennings has advocated platooning players before, but "others" have prevented the team from doing that (see Jones, Baker last year). Maybe this Bour split is an indication they are going to be "smarter." I mean, they don't need to platoon anyone else on the team so you'd hope they can manage to do the 1 spot on the field they need it.

I'm confident Rojas, "Valencia type", Telis, and Dietrich would be a pretty solid bench (i.e., no major negative WAR numbers like Ichiro), and maybe they sign someone like Venable to be a super 4th OF. He won't cost much and be a great guy for 350 PA.

Based on 2013-2014 historical team numbers, a 24 WAR position core is around 7-10 best overall in baseball. Sure there is downside if Hech falls apart, Gordon fears happen, Realmuto has a sophomore slump, the outfielders are more 2015 than 2014, but every team can say that. I'd say there is equally as much upside as Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna, and Prado can surpass those totals and average out any under performances. Hell, maybe Hech's defense is 100% real and his ISO continues the 3 year trend up.

The only issue with the bats I see is if they resign McGehee and Ichiro and think their "veteran" leadership and batting average make them OK. It could happen, but I'm just not going to get angry about it until it happens. I'd like to think they are happy with Telis, Rojas, and Dietrich, go find a lefty masher like Valencia which McGehee is not, and get a contending team 4th OF and not be cute and try to chase 3,000.

The bench concerns are relatively minor regardless. They have the starters besides someone to help Bour. Real concern is SP.

They need to go after Kazmir or Samardzija (assuming Greinke, Cueto, Price, and Zimmerman out of their payroll expectations) hard on a 3 year deal and get one of them. Maybe sign another cheap SP to hedge against Alvarez being healthy.

Harder to project the SP WAR, but if...

5 WAR - Fernandez
3 WAR - Kazmir/Samardzija type guy and the bullpen (pretty reasonable with Ramos/Capps projections)
2 WAR - Alvarez/some other veteran type guy
1.5 WAR - Cosart/Phelps and Phelps/Nicolino/Urena

I mean, that is 16 WAR and that' assuming no breakouts from the 3-4-5 starters and Fernandez doesn't go bananas. Using 2013-2014 data, that's around the 10-13th most productive staff.

That's probably a playoff team in the NL East. And that's just signing Kazmir/Samardzija, Venable, and Valencia (and maybe someone to hedge against Alvarez), which they could probably do for the $20 million they ditched with Haren, Latos, Cishek, Morse, and comp pick (maybe a little more if the hedge Alvarez). That's basically no new money from what they already committed to spend. I think that's key when thinking about Loria. This doesn't change what they expected to spend prior to 2015.

That's around an $80 million payroll. Easily bottom 3 in the league.

I mean, yes I hear everyone and "why the fuck don't you drop Greinke and Napoli on top of that" and move to an elite team for $110 million (middle of the pack payroll, which is reasonable with a new fucking stadium), but let's be realistic. A good 2/3 SP, not radically fucking up the bench, and no major injuries, and the team is in good shape at least on the MLB level to contend. Maybe they'd get players to put them over the top in July if all is looking good. I'm OK with that.

Sorry to be a cheerleader, but the doom and gloom is a bit much. This year sucks and ownership fucks up a lot of stuff and is cheap, but the players they have are young and good and they are realistically 2-3 pieces away which they can afford with just the saved money.

We'll see. There is no point in getting angry until we see what they do. If they pocket the money - fuck them. I just don't see it happening.

[Jay]

I think you're right on a lot of stuff lou but you're basically saying the need to sign 4 players (2 SP, lefty masher 1B, 4th OF). This is completely reasonable and if all goes right could make a run (with the right SP signings of course). But I think the team can improve more by making more moves than this.

Sign Uribe and trade Prado. I know Uribe will be 37 next year, but he's a better bat than Prado and a better glove at third. He signed a 2/15 in 2013 which is less per year than Prado currently makes. You can probably sign him for this or less and with no depth at third and no bad contracts, it could be a two year deal.

Explore trading Ozuna, Ramos, and Capps. It's all about what's coming in return. Should be targeting long term solutions for 3B, SP, and CF.

Trade Dunn. Honestly the return doesn't matter much here.
Trade one of Koehler/Phelps.

Shop Kolek/Hand/Urena/Nicolino/Cosart based packages.

Trade/Non-tender Crow. Not sure what his salary number would be but he shouldn't be on the team regardless of what he's making.

Still will probably have to sign a SP, the bullpen shouldn't be a concern if only one of Ramos/Capps is moved, OF might need more than just a 4th OF, but it could be done creatively and the return from an Ozuna trade would offset the decrease in any performance, and the bench may or may not need a lefty masher probably does as it shouldn't be the goal of any trade. The thing is the system gets restocked which would allow for a significant midseason upgrade which wouldn't have been possible this year and better long term plan.

[Miamarlin21]

I would love to get Kazmir on a two-year deal with a player option for a third (to give him leverage.) Another starter I'd like is Mike Leake. Granted, he's not a lefty, but he's durable.

As for a backup outfielder, I like Rajai Davis. The Marlins, other than Dee, do not have any speed at all, and signing Davis to be the backup would be a great addition to the bench. He may cost over $5 million, but he fits what they need.

[HUGG]

We're getting Lincecum, just come to terms with it now.

[Bobbob1313]

Perception is a funny thing.

I know Realmuto's young and has promise, but it still feels like his best quality when it comes to how fans perceive him is that he isn't Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

His CS% is terrible, he rates out as one of the worst pitch-framers in baseball, and He has a .624 OPS (.255 OBP) against RHP.

He's someone you want to see grow, but he's also not someone you don't try to upgrade on if you're looking to make a run in the near future.

[Namaste]

lou, negative four billion chance they use Valencia, Bour and Deitrich in a time share. C'mon.

[marlinsfan24]

Lets hope the players' union can do something. I doubt it.

http://marlinmaniac.com/2015/08/02/p...oll-situation/

[lou]

Perception is a funny thing.

I know Realmuto's young and has promise, but it still feels like his best quality when it comes to how fans perceive him is that he isn't Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

His CS% is terrible, he rates out as one of the worst pitch-framers in baseball, and He has a .624 OPS (.255 OBP) against RHP.

He's someone you want to see grow, but he's also not someone you don't try to upgrade on if you're looking to make a run in the near future.

I hear you, but let's see how the season ends. Check out his April/May slash versus June/July. Big changes. Also, he is projected to have a 1.5 WAR this year as is. Even modest growth gets him to a 2 WAR, which I think is reasonable and makes him a solid starter.

Unless the next two months are bad, I think you can go into next season with him. Also, Salty, Mathis, and J. Solano are basically a combined -1.5 WAR as the "backup" this year. If this Telis guy does anything, or get a reasonable replacement level catcher, they can get another win or two there.

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lou, negative four billion chance they use Valencia, Bour and Deitrich in a time share. C'mon.

Look at the Bour splits. He faces RHP 8-1.

I think they'll get someone to start against lefties and platoon the two. That's assuming Bour has a solid two months to end the year. I do agree asking to mix in Dietrich anywhere is a hope and prayer.

[rmc523]

Lets hope the players' union can do something. I doubt it.

http://marlinmaniac.com/2015/08/02/p...oll-situation/

Who knows. Like the article mentioned, a similar thing happened in 2010, and they ended up in the agreement to raise payroll. If anything, I'd think they could be put under more pressure now. I mean think about the different scenario between now and then. Back then they could've argued they were saving for a new stadium blah blah. Now what's their excuse? They have a brand new ballpark that they get all revenues from, and another team is paying 1/4 of the already lowest payroll. I mean what argument do they have now? I mean sure, perhaps we should wait to see how/if they reinvest money into next year's team, but as we sit now, as usual their biggest moves appear to be nothing but financially motivated.

[tjfla]

No clue who the hell this FO is looking at anymore but it would be nice to grab some of these guys who got DFA and give them a look. Valencia/Worley/Medina. We got 7 spots open right now and the #2 spot

[Miamarlin21]

Brad Hand will start Tuesday. The rotation now is Jose, Koehler, Hand, Phelps and Urena.

[Jay]

Brad Hand will start Tuesday. The rotation now is Jose, Koehler, Hand, Phelps and Urena.

Ace, long reliever, lefty specialist, 5th starter, prospect with 4th starter ceiling. That's a good fucking rotation.

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The only reason I can see Hand and Koehler in there over Conley and Flores is to try and up their value for the offseason.

[emkayseven]

I was telling Ehsan that the only reason I can see them moving Hand into the rotation would be because a team was interested in him in an August deal and maybe wanted to see him start.

I've never gotten and will never get the Koehler hate. He is what he is. He's a fine back end starter, you know what you're getting from him. I'd prefer him to Phelps every time you asked me.

[Todd]

Ace, long reliever, lefty specialist, 5th starter, prospect with 4th starter ceiling. That's a good fucking rotation.

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The only reason I can see Hand and Koehler in there over Conley and Flores is to try and up their value for the offseason.

Not for nothing but IIRC Conley and Flores were always considered bullpen arms to begin with.

[marlinsfan24]

I was telling Ehsan that the only reason I can see them moving Hand into the rotation would be because a team was interested in him in an August deal and maybe wanted to see him start.

I've never gotten and will never get the Koehler hate. He is what he is. He's a fine back end starter, you know what you're getting from him. I'd prefer him to Phelps every time you asked me.

I agree on the Koehler part .

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Who knows. Like the article mentioned, a similar thing happened in 2010, and they ended up in the agreement to raise payroll. If anything, I'd think they could be put under more pressure now. I mean think about the different scenario between now and then. Back then they could've argued they were saving for a new stadium blah blah. Now what's their excuse? They have a brand new ballpark that they get all revenues from, and another team is paying 1/4 of the already lowest payroll. I mean what argument do they have now? I mean sure, perhaps we should wait to see how/if they reinvest money into next year's team, but as we sit now, as usual their biggest moves appear to be nothing but financially motivated.

The author of the article is dumb. I hate him