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  • The Three Year Plan



    The point of this is to really be able to objectify what holes we need to address and what resources we have to address those holes. I did this last offseason prior to the firesale (which more-or-less justified the firesale unless we were going over a 100m payroll. It's also interesting to see how much our pitching progressed from then) and thought it'd be good to see where we now stand going forward.

    Few notes:
    -* means arbitration eligible/guess payroll
    -Replacement level team is worth 48 wins, so add 48 to the WAR total for total team wins
    -Those WAR numbers are very rough, as are minimum numbers. This is meant as a rough view and not meant to be completely 100% accurate. Just enough to paint a picture.
    -If they're making the minimum, their name really doesn't matter (This especially goes for bench/bullpen). It's just used as a filler piece since it's already rather interchangeable.

    2014

    Nothing really to say except that our IF sucks ass while the rest of our team is good and our payroll is super low (aka what everyone already knows). I have us at ~78 wins, Zips has us at ~75 wins. So there really isn't much hope even with major break outs. Our IF just sucks so bad

    2015

    With continual development from the likes of Fernandez, Yelich, and Ozuna/Mars, the first full season of Heaney, and the departure of Dobbs, I think we progress to being around a .500 win team. Still way too many holes in the IF. Our pitching staff will likely be in the top-5 (and that's being conservative) in the NL, our OF will be top ranked as well, but our current projected IF is looking like the worst in baseball.

    The good part? The IF FA class is a lot more interesting than this past year's. Up the middle, there is Lowrie, Hardy, and Asdrubal Cabrera (Their contracts probably being around 3-4 years at 9-12m per). At third, there's Sandoval and Headley (4-5 years at 14-17m per). All of which are about ~3 WAR players and relatively young.

    Further expounding optimism is just how much money there is to play with. We're looking at a current projected payroll of just 50m. Removing Cishek, Dunn, and McGehee frees up over another 10m. Hech and Turner are more pieces that would not hurt to move to free up room. We could sign 3 of the above players and still be around just a 75m payroll.

    Now, it's unlikely we sign all 3 for a lot of reasons. But we need to sign at least two (likely of the up-the-middle variety so as not to block Moran) to be serious contenders. If we do that, we're looking at a ~5 win increase and now being an upper-80's team. Still not great, but there's a lot of room for growth with our young players.

    There is also dealing from our SP depth to fill these holes. And that really should not hurt us all too bad.

    If we have a desire to upgrade 1st (and we likely should), it'll have to be through trade. The FA class there is incredibly weak. But there is also the option of moving Stanton to first if both Ozuna and Marisnick develop well. This would free up even more money to spend on the rest of the IF.

    2016

    With Fernandez hitting arbitration, as well as the continual raises in others like Stanton, Eovaldi, Alvarez, and Cishek, our payroll is getting pretty high. Dumping a lot of our pen (which, with our pitching depth, is not a bad thing) frees up a ton of payroll though so this isn't too big of a thing. Again: need IF help.

    2017 will also be pretty hard on payroll with more guys like Yelich and Ozuna/Mars hitting arbitration. Plus Stanton getting huge pay raise from FA years. Oh, wait. Sigh.

    TLDR

    Lot of hope starting in 2015 based off how good our pitching and OF are, along with a stronger IF FA class and a lot of money to spend. As long as they actually spend that money.

  • #2
    They could increase the probability of fixing the IF problem sooner rather than later by trading Steve Cishek. I think any other organization in the Marlins position would do that except for the Marlins.
    Last edited by Erick; 12-24-2013, 01:49 PM.

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    • #3
      I'd trade Cishek and a prospect to the M's for Nick Franklin. Platoon McGehee and Jones at first. But like Erick said, only a smart team would do that. The Marlins are not that.

      Comment


      • #4
        Nominal house keeping discussion - Hecha is in arbitration in 2016 so that's probably a $3+ based on playing time, more if he's good. Maybe slot that at $3.5 just to double his salary for now; They historically give raises to ROY guys, so I think Fernandez is probably a $575 in 14, and say $625 in 15; I'd raise Stanton $1 million a year as he's the kind of guy who will trump expectations, same with adding another $1 mil to Fernandez in 2016 just to overestimate; I'd put minimum salaries at $510 and $520 for 15/16 respectively, there will be a cost of living/inflation raise of around that much, plus they will tender some guys a few bucks ahead. Not that it changes much though; Mathis is a club option in 2015 if that wants to be noted somewhere

        But all in all, that looks good and is really fair across the board. I'd hope Yelich and Stanton (and Hecha lol) are higher in 2016 on WAR, but thats whatever and I get the lowballing it.

        As for the plan, I think there are some core assets missing from the board though (who are off the 25 man), which are really key to the long term view. Mainly three here, which likely displace guys and have a massive salary trickle effect. And I'm just going to assume they keep Stanton and let him walk post arbitration.

        1. I see what you guys typed above, but I think there is a 99% Cishek gone at the deadline and that has to turn into an infield starter. I would trade Cishek now too if they could obtain a longterm 1B/2B (or even catcher. And yes I am ignoring they need a longterm SS and just chalking it up that Hecha gets 2014 before any discussion happens there). That's huge in plugging a hole and clearing payroll. It will happen.

        2. 2014 # 2 pick. I would imagine this is a fast rising college SP who is ready 2016 latest, maybe even summer 2015. I know everyone is probably thinking bat, but the pitcher is likely going to develop faster and they can shuffle assets as a result of dropping another top end guy here. I think Loria is seeing the price of free agent pitching compared to the bats and is going to think the better investment is to draft pitching, buy hitters. So I hope anyways as I agree with that. Plus, it seems the draft is SP heavy even at a glance this far away. Anyways...

        3. Nicolino, DeSclafani, Urena, Flynn, Conley, Hand - I'm going to say one of them turns into a legitimate SP they can plug in back of rotation and costs nothing for awhile. Doesn't matter who. I think this is fair. Just one, the rest end up relievers or trade bait

        If that all happens, the 2016 team is looking

        C-Salty
        1B- ?????
        2B-"Guy acquired for Cishek"
        SS-hecha
        3B-Moran
        LF-Yelich
        CF-Ozuna/Marisnick
        RF-Stanton
        B-Realmuto/Barnes, Ozuna/Marisnick, Dietrich/Solano/Keys, ___?______, ____?_______

        SP - Fernandez, Heaney, pick one of Eovaldi/Alvarez/Turner, 2014 # 2 pick, pick one of above, let's say Nicolino

        RP - Ramos, pick 4 of Capps/Caminero/Wittigren/Koehler/DeSclafani/Urena/Sanchez/Dyson, and pick 2 Jennings/Dayton/Olmos/Flynn/Conley. That is two bullpens right there for the record. There can be an incredibly high flame out rate here which is very nice.

        This leaves MLB tradeable assets of (besides Cishek who I plugged in above already):

        Two of Eovaldi/Alvarez/Turner (this clears $9-11 million as well) < - Let's say replenishes AA SP depth with a good arm or two, i.e. no effect 25 man above
        Dunn (clears $2 million) < - Let's say adds some young relievers to add to heap above and can live in AA/AAA

        That team above in 2016, is roughly $40 million (which is insane), and only needs a 1B starter, and some bench hitters. And if they move one of the OF to 1B because they all work out, just bench hitters. And maybe a better SS than Hecha. Let's say Loria opens the bank a bit and let's them go to $70 also, knowing Stanton/Salty off books, he can trade/DFA whoever is left of Eovaldi/Alvarez/Turner and Ramos (hypothetical closer) and not pay their arb, thus making the only major financial asset Fernandez and maybe Yelich as a significant arbitration case by then. i.e., payroll wouldn't balloon in 2017 giving out contracts in 2016 as a ton is coming off or removable from the books. That's a very sound financial position to be in on the 25 man roster with the potential core of 2-3 major free agents and Fernandez, Yelich, Heaney, 2014 # 2 pick, Moran, '2B for Cishek,' Ozuna/Marisnick, Nicolino/other young SP, etc.

        As for what the farm looks like in 2016, they should have 4-5 premium picks in low minors from 2014/2015/2016 drafts, and should have a few guys from Romero, T. Williams, Suggs, Copeland, trades from guys above, etc in upper minors. Probably isn't elite unless they absolutely kill the 2014 draft, but it would likely be a respectable top 10 list and not debilitating. Most important, they'll also be getting two # 1 draft picks for Stanton when they don't trade or resign him after 2016 and Salty is probably bringing a compensatory pick too, so they could be looking at 5-6 top 75 picks in 2017 draft. It's kind of hard to envision the farm this far away, but on paper they would have the picks to be able to make an impact if they hit on guys. That's whats important.

        The only problem with all of this is it's going to take 2 years and no margin of error. They need minimum four good position player starters, two of which infielders, out of Yelich, Ozuna, Marisnick, Moran, "whatever they get from Cishek," Dietrich, and Hecha. That's not exactly a sure thing, especially in infield. Likewise, Fernandez and Heaney need to hit their ceiling. I'm not really worried about the 4/5 SP and bullpen, the flameout rate is so high there, they will very likely have the arms to adequately fill those spots, but the top end needs to develop and they need to go 2/2 with Fernandez and Heaney becoming and remaining beasts.

        But that's 2016. Max 75 wins 2014, maybe get to .500 2015 with no massive influx of FA. Just got to wait 2 years. Hopefully Loria is magically whisked away by then as they look really set up come 2016 moving forward.

        Comment


        • #5
          For the draft, the only college arms available/worth taking are RHP Jeff Hoffman from ECU and RHP Tyler Beede from Vanderbilt. That is assuming Carlos Rodon goes first overall. Shortstop Trea Turner would be a great fit for the Marlins. He has blazing speed and can play shortstop but could move over to second if needed. He also could move really fast in the system. Other than that the only other guys to consider taking at number two are high school pitcher Tyler Kolek out of Texas and catcher Alex Jackson from California.
          LHP Chad James-Jupiter Hammerheads-

          5-15 3.80 ERA (27 starts) 149.1IP 173H 63ER 51BB 124K

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          • #6
            I can guarantee Loria doesn't have any sort of 3 year plan. He is only capable of 1 year plans.
            Need help? Questions? Concerns? Want to chat? PM Hugg!

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            • #7
              I'd be fairly upset if we drafted Trea Turner in the first round.

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              • #8
                I'm happy with Turner or Gatewood. I'm still split on the issue, but I think Gatewood at his best can be a Manny Machado style pick (not comparing, since Machado is a ++ defender and people say Gatewood has great power but decent defense and potential contact issues).

                I don't see why you'd think Turner would be a terrible pick Mainge. I don't think Turner's got a high ceiling unless he develops power over the years, but he seems like a safe bet to be a close to major league ready SS right from the get go (with great speed, good defense and room to improve as a hitter).
                Last edited by dim; 12-24-2013, 05:33 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Yeah, he's projected to be a top five overall pick. What's the issue, Mainge?
                  LHP Chad James-Jupiter Hammerheads-

                  5-15 3.80 ERA (27 starts) 149.1IP 173H 63ER 51BB 124K

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Mainge View Post
                    I'd be fairly upset if we drafted Trea Turner in the first round.
                    I think so too. Keep drafting starting pitching. They can turn Cishek into an infielder, sign another one in FA 15/16, and hopefully get lucky with Hech-Dietrich/trade other assets (like Alvarez/Turner once bumped from rotation) for a third one.

                    Let alone the looming Stanton decision where they could cash him in to 3 young guys anywhere on the field and free up $10 million or so and add a 4th major guy in free agency.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by dim View Post
                      I'm happy with Turner or Gatewood. I'm still split on the issue, but I think Gatewood at his best can be a Manny Machado style pick (not comparing, since Machado is a ++ defender and people say Gatewood has great power but decent defense and potential contact issues).

                      I don't see why you'd think Turner would be a terrible pick Mainge. I don't think Turner's got a high ceiling unless he develops power over the years, but he seems like a safe bet to be a close to major league ready SS right from the get go (with great speed, good defense and room to improve as a hitter).
                      Originally posted by Miamarlin21 View Post
                      Yeah, he's projected to be a top five overall pick. What's the issue, Mainge?
                      Low ceiling pretty much. I don't think you spend a top-5 draft choice on a guy with limited upside.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        He will hit around .300 and get on base a ton and has 80 speed. Yeah he's not the new shortstop mold of Hanley or Tulo, but he would be very valuable at the top of a lineup, no?
                        LHP Chad James-Jupiter Hammerheads-

                        5-15 3.80 ERA (27 starts) 149.1IP 173H 63ER 51BB 124K

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          If you could guarantee me that he'd hit .300/.400/.400/ and play great defense, I get on board. But the reality is that there's no such thing as a safe pick. Some are safer, sure, but professional baseball has spit out even the most advanced college bats.

                          If you start at 2008 and work your way backwards to 2000, only 40% of top 5 picks have made a big league impact, which includes guys like Eric Hosmer, Pedro Alvarez, and Matt Wieters who have all underwhelmed and haven't been the plus players they were supposed to be. Combining the natural washing out of guys trying to make professional baseball with an already capped ceiling just seems dumb to me.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Chewford View Post
                            I can guarantee Loria doesn't have any sort of 3 year plan. He is only capable of 1 year plans.
                            I guess making money isn't considered a multi-year plan?

                            I think it is bad that this message board would run the team better for free than the front office that I assume makes more combined than our highest paid player.

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                            • #15
                              could we pull a green bay packers and just pool our money and buy the marlins as a community?
                              Originally posted by Madman81
                              Most of the people in the world being dumb is not a requirement for you to be among their ranks.
                              Need help? Questions? Concerns? Want to chat? PM me!

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