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  • Project Wolverine

    As Jeter's "Project Wolverine" is more of an overall plan for the next few years rather than specifically this offseason, I decided to move my posts on the subject to their own thread.

    Barry Jackson obtained copies from two sources, and is writing a 5 part series on Jeter's plan. The first two have been published already:

    http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/sp...192646499.html

    Marlins CEO Derek Jeter, who has slashed about $36 million in player payroll in recent weeks, in August circulated a document to potential investors that projects the Marlins will make an enormous profit in 2018 and sizable profits the following three years.

    Project Wolverine, Jeter’s confidential document given to potential investors and shared with The Miami Herald by two of those approached investors, includes ambitious revenue goals for tickets, sponsorship and television rights.

    The new ownership group is poised to make a profit next season because of the slashing of payroll, combined with the fact that every MLB team next spring will receive a one-time payout of $50 million as a result of MLB’s sale of digital media company BAMTech to Disney. But the amount of the Marlins’ profit could vary widely based on several factors.


    The August version of the document — named Project Wolverine because Jeter grew up primarily in Michigan, nicknamed The Wolverine State — projects a Marlins “cash flow” profit of $68 million for 2018.

    But much of that was based on the internal projection that Fox will give the Marlins a $44.8 million up-front payment as part of a renegotiated TV deal. There’s no indication if the Marlins at this point believe that will happen.

    If Fox does not give the Marlins a lucrative extension and that large projected up-front payment, the Marlins’ projected profit for 2018 would drop to $23 million and potentially lower if ambitious revenue targets aren’t met.

    The Marlins’ TV contract, which pays the lowest in baseball, runs through 2020.

    Those profit projections in the August version of Project Wolverine are based on a player payroll of about $90 million for 2018, or $100 million including pension payments. The Marlins’ current payroll projects to $104 million before pension payments, and the team is reportedly looking to shed additional salary.

    That August version of Project Wolverine projects Marlins profits of $10 million in 2019, $15.8 million in 2020, and $22 million in 2021.

    The document was crafted by the Jeter camp and two versions of it were shared with the Herald, one from August and another from a couple of months before.

    There have been subsequent versions of Wolverine circulated with amended figures, but the Marlins declined to share those numbers or comment otherwise for this series of Herald stories that will be posted in the coming days.

    The August Project Wolverine version shared with The Herald — circulated during the month that Jeffrey Loria agreed to sell the team to Jeter and businessman Bruce Sherman — offers insight into the ownership group’s financial model.

    Here are Project Wolverine’s August projections in three key categories:

    The document projects a big spike in attendance revenue in 2018, which would seem difficult to achieve in the wake of trades involving Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon.

    The Marlins generated about $30 million in ticket revenue last season, but Wolverine projects increases to $37.5 million in 2018 and $40.6 million and $45.8 million the following two seasons.

    According to a source, even though the National League announced the Marlins’ attendance at 1.6 million last season, only 820,000 were paid tickets.

    Wolverine projects the paid figures to rise to 1.1 million, 1.2 million, 1.35 million, 1.5 million and 1.65 million over the next five seasons.

    The spring version of the document, since altered, projected a jump in overall attendance (paid and unpaid) to 24,235 in 2018 and 27,284 in 2019, a substantial jump from 20,395 in 2017.

    ▪ Project Wolverine projects the team’s corporate sponsorship revenue will rise from $19.1 million in 2017 to $24 million in 2018, with increases to $32 million, $37.8 million and $41.6 million the following three years.

    The initial jump could happen easily if the team secures a corporate naming rights sponsor willing to pay at least $5 million annually to place its name on Marlins Park. The projected increases in 2019 and beyond seem to be more ambitious.

    ▪ The Marlins’ long-term TV deal with Fox Sports Florida, negotiated by the previous ownership group, expires after 2020 and will pay the team $17 million, $18 million and $20 million over the next three seasons — the lowest in baseball.

    In Project Wolverine, Jeter projects annual local broadcast revenue (almost all from TV) to be $51.6 million in 2021 and $53.6 million in 2022.

    But one Northeast businessman approached by Jeter said a rise to the $40 million to $45 million range might be more realistic than $50 million-plus.

    In order to drive up the price of TV rights significantly, the Marlins might need to find a bidder to challenge Fox Sports Florida, which is among nearly two dozen regional sports cable networks being purchased by ESPN. Comcast has never shown serious interest in challenging Fox for Marlins rights, and Jeter — according to associates — has displayed no inclination to start a TV network, which would be a pricey and risky proposition.

    The Marlins must hope that a non-traditional potential competitor for TV rights will challenge Fox (or eventually ESPN) — perhaps Yahoo or Google or Facebook.

    That might be needed to keep Fox from essentially bidding against itself and to give the Marlins the money they need to afford a much higher payroll. The low TV contract is among the single biggest factors why the Marlins’ past ownership and current one cannot afford a larger payroll.
    I just have no idea why they think fans will suddenly start flocking to the park....especially when they traded away the most noteworthy players, and will be terrible the next few years. What is leading them to believe that's going to happen?

    The only believable part of this whole thing is the corporate sponsorship revenue - that I believe because they can sell the naming rights to the stadium, which will be increased revenue.

    - - - - - - - - - -


    Here is Part 2, discussing Payroll:

    http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/sp...192803579.html

    According to numbers in an August copy of Project Wolverine, the team’s projected 2018 payroll will be $100 million, but the projected payroll for this coming season is actually $90 million or a bit above without those pension benefits and other costs.

    Subtracting $10 million in those payments from future listed payrolls in the August copy of Wolverine, the Marlins project payrolls of $81 million in 2019, $84.8 million in 2020, $116 million in 2021 and $118.7 million in 2022.

  • #2
    Since they are obviously going full rebuild, the payroll part of this is almost irrelevant for the next 3 or 4 years. If you are rebuilding, the payroll will naturally be low.

    Comment


    • #3
      A $118 million payroll in 2022 is worrisome

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Namaste View Post
        A $118 million payroll in 2022 is worrisome
        I'm sure that is projecting that some (or many) of the young players acquired will still be pre-arbitration at that point....and also Chen will be off the books. That's why any of these numbers are pretty meaningless to me right now. I'm just hoping that they are planning on pouring money into the draft and International market over the next few years. If they go the Loria route on those things, then I will be concerned.

        Comment


        • #5
          I think what he meant is, $118M would have been good for 18th last year, and to think that that’s the projection for 4 years out means that’s probably a bottom 5 or 6 payroll in 2022.
          Originally posted by Madman81
          Most of the people in the world being dumb is not a requirement for you to be among their ranks.
          Need help? Questions? Concerns? Want to chat? PM me!

          Comment


          • #6
            Has the looks of a plan for an ownership that plans on being a bottom-feeder.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by ¿NICK? View Post
              Has the looks of a plan for an ownership that plans on being a bottom-feeder.
              What else is new?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by emkayseven View Post
                I think what he meant is, $118M would have been good for 18th last year, and to think that that’s the projection for 4 years out means that’s probably a bottom 5 or 6 payroll in 2022.
                And it's, to me, doubly worrisome that Jeter wouldn't commit to spending even when the rebuild is at its final phases / winning phase during his press conference.

                It's one to project it privately, it's another to be non-committal publicly as well. It's pretty clear this is just a money machine for these guys. Too bad, Miami deserves better. Maybe that 2040 expansion franchise to fill the hole that the San Antonio Marlins leave will get it right.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Namaste View Post
                  A $118 million payroll in 2022 is worrisome
                  Not as worrisome when u realize that the idea is this team is mostly 24/25 yr olds who are only making less than 1 million a year.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    The hope has to be they start locking guys up early. Christian Yelich all the guys that show they are worth it. Some even earlier.
                    "You owe it to yourself to find your own unorthodox way of succeeding, or sometimes, just surviving."
                    - Michael Johnson


                    J.T. Realmuto .282/.351/.412

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Ralph View Post
                      The hope has to be they start locking guys up early. Christian Yelich all the guys that show they are worth it. Some even earlier.
                      i like using christian yelich as a verb.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by tjfla View Post
                        Not as worrisome when u realize that the idea is this team is mostly 24/25 yr olds who are only making less than 1 million a year.
                        Project Wolverine is high on optimism, low on realism.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by emkayseven View Post
                          I think what he meant is, $118M would have been good for 18th last year, and to think that that’s the projection for 4 years out means that’s probably a bottom 5 or 6 payroll in 2022.

                          Yes.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I posted this in the other thread too, but thought it would make sense here as well.

                            http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2750596

                            Here's a good article from Bleacher Report basically summing up my thoughts of ownership/the moves so far. A few highlights.....

                            First impressions matter, and if Moreno would always be the guy who gave you a drink, Jeter is on his way to always being the guy who traded the MVP…and pushed Mr. Marlin out…and turned Marlins Man into a former season-ticket holder.

                            He came in as the guy who could save South Florida from Jeffrey Loria and David Samson, who were hugely (and rightly) unpopular as owner and president of the Miami Marlins. Three months later, he's the guy who already has some in the area convinced he's going to be just as bad as they were.

                            It doesn't matter that in many ways the perception is worse than the reality. The perception matters, and it's bad enough to make you wonder who would ever be a fan of this team. Who would ever buy a ticket?

                            First impressions matter, and this is the first impression Jeter has left since he and his investment group paid $1.2 billion to take over the Marlins.

                            "It's because he doesn't know what he's doing," said Jonathan Zaslow, host of the Zaslow, Romberg & Amber morning show on Miami's 790 The Ticket. "It really is that simple. He's a shortstop. No more, no less."

                            Jeter may well turn the Marlins into a winner before he's done. He may prove to be as successful as an owner as he was as a shortstop. He might build a winning team and rebuild relationships with the community that suffered under Loria and Samson. It's entirely possible the early baseball decisions he oversaw and directed will prove to be the right ones.


                            But this is where he starts. Unless and until some of those other things come through, this is what Jeter the owner will be

                            ....

                            Images do count, and Jeter should know that as well as anyone. For two decades as the Yankees shortstop, playing in the biggest market and the biggest fishbowl, he carefully preserved his image.

                            In three months as an owner, he has let that image slip.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Part 3 of Jackson's piece:

                              http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/sp...193234504.html

                              According to an August version of Project Wolverine - a document pitching potential investors on joining the Marlins ownership group and shared with the Miami Herald by sources - Jeter will make an annual bonus based on the Marlins being profitable.

                              Never miss a local story.

                              That bonus would pay him $2 million in 2018, $1.7 million in 2019, $1.1 million in 2020, $2 million in 2021 and $2 million in 2022. The Marlins declined to say if the amount of those bonus payments were altered in subsequent versions of Wolverine.

                              Project Wolverine projects the Marlins will have a $68 million profit in 2018 (though it would drop to $23 million without a large projected up-front payment from Fox on a Marlins-proposed contract extension). Wolverine projects a $10 million profit in 2019, $15.8 million in 2020 and $22 million in 2021. Those figures are based on projections that include sharp rises in attendance and sponsorship revenue.

                              What’s more, Jeter is being paid $5 million annually as CEO. Jeter declined to confirm or deny a report that he has an unlimited credit card for Marlins-related expenses including travel from his Tampa home, which isn’t mentioned in Wolverine.

                              .....

                              The Marlins owners are seeking another $200 million from new investors, partly because some of the 18 investors would like to lower their own investment, according to a source.

                              The Marlins declined to make Sherman, Jeter or anyone else available for comment for this Herald series.

                              Comment

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