Marlins 2017-2018 Offseason Discussion Thread

[sports24/7]

Soto has monster upside. Jim Bowden has him as his #7 prospect and calls him the most underrated prospect in baseball. The upside with him is massive. I'd be fine if he's that main part coming back. Same with Tucker. I would not trade him to Washington if Soto (assuming Robles isn't happening) is not part of the deal. There is no way I could get on board with anything else. They just don't have a great prospect pool after those top two. Houston has a better stable of prospects, but I'm not sure I'd be ok with trading with them if Tucker, Whitley, or Bukauskas aren't coming back.

Those other Washington and Houston packages aren't anything close to an overpay, which is what we're supposed to be getting in order to move Realmuto.

[fish16]

Im higher on Soto than i am tucker. I think Soto is a future MVP with hit hitting ability.

[rmc523]

Blue Jays signed Jaime Garcia for 1 year, $8M.

[Lee Stone]

I'm not liking anything about Houston's prospects, and Soto isn't essential either. A package of Kieboom, Daniel Johnson, Seth Romero and Raudy Read fits the Marlins needs. Kieboom is a plus bat for SS, something that's been missing since Hanley. Johnson is flying high under the radar and part of my dream of a super fast OF, all 20/20 guys with great arms (Brinson, Harrison, and Johnson - My Three Sons). Romero has huge potential as a LHP. Read is serving a suspension, making him especially obtainable. Looking a year down the road, the Yelich/Realmuto trades alone will have produced six starters! An entire OF, SS, 2B and C. This trade gets it done.

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Why not Castro at SS? The Marlins have no wizard at SS standing in the way - like Addison Russell or Didi Gregorious. Castro still has a lot more range than Jeter did for the last eight years of his career. A Castro/Dietrich combo will at least provide some offense.

[fish16]

Id be cool with a Castro/Prado middle infield and Dietrich in left field. I dont think they will end up doing it though. Castro was also kind of a nightmare at SS if i remember correctly

[Lee Stone]

Couldn't have been too bad ... more like average. He was named All Star SS three times. Dietrich in left makes me and his pitchers nervous.

[fish16]

Ya looking at his defensive numbers on fangraphs and they were better than i thought. i think he is one of the guys that gets a lot of errors but his actual defensive performance isnt bad.

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If they would put castro at SS and Prado at 2b with anderson at 3b and Dietrich in LF our lineup really wouldnt be all that bad at all. Bunch of service time things to worry about, but if we go

Sierra/Jon jay type CF- service time/needs a few months more of seasoning anyways
Castro- SS
JT- C
Bour- 1b
Brinson- RF- service time issue
Prado- 2b
Dietrich- LF
Anderson- 3b

That's not bad in the slightest as long as its healthy.

[lou]

I'm not liking anything about Houston's prospects, and Soto isn't essential either. A package of Kieboom, Daniel Johnson, Seth Romero and Raudy Read fits the Marlins needs. Kieboom is a plus bat for SS, something that's been missing since Hanley. Johnson is flying high under the radar and part of my dream of a super fast OF, all 20/20 guys with great arms (Brinson, Harrison, and Johnson - My Three Sons). Romero has huge potential as a LHP. Read is serving a suspension, making him especially obtainable. Looking a year down the road, the Yelich/Realmuto trades alone will have produced six starters! An entire OF, SS, 2B and C. This trade gets it done.

Package is very light. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valu...100-prospects/

If we're valuing Kieboom as a FV55/50 type of guy (that is fair based on where scouting services have him, some higher, some lower), he's probably worth something like $30 in value. Romero is worth $14 as a FV50, Johnson $20 as a FV50, and Read $11 as a FV45. That's around $75 million in prospect value.

Realmuto's surplus right now is $90+. That's valuing him as a 3.5 WAR catcher for 3 seasons, minus his expected payroll. This idea doesn't add up as your undervaluing Realmuto with what he has done for 2 seasons. Or, really over-valuing some of the Nationals guys. Especially because Realmuto is super premium at the catcher position, you can buy out Realmuto and get more value, Romero has off the field problems, Read was popped for steroids, and there is major volatility with Kieboom having to move off SS in a few years. This is a dream trade for the Nationals with a division rival.

If Soto is out, they need Kieboom ($30), L. Garcia ($20, FV50 and a real SS), Fedde ($18, he is a FV55/50 as some have him legitimately higher and I think universally over Romero), Severino/Read ($11), and one of their C+ arms ($13, they have six of them here - https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017...pects-for-2018), which gets you to Realmuto's realistic value. And I'm being generous here giving Kieboom and Fedde a pretty maximum grade. If anything, you get rid of Fedde and keep the C+ arm or just ditch entirely the C+ arm. Maybe add a swap of Wieters/Ziegler-or-Tazawa as a player-payroll dump as a kicker.

Marlins have longterm OF depth also - Brinson, Harrison, Sierra, Miller, Lee, Norwood, B. Hernandez, Soto, Ortega. Probably best to focus on infielders like Garcia (or Antuna) as secondary pieces.

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Why not Castro at SS? The Marlins have no wizard at SS standing in the way - like Addison Russell or Didi Gregorious. Castro still has a lot more range than Jeter did for the last eight years of his career. A Castro/Dietrich combo will at least provide some offense.

He stinks defensively, and Rojas is very good. In fact, Rojas has 2.6 WAR in 839 PA for his career. That's pretty solid. He's probably a safe 1.5+ WAR player based on defense alone. Ironically, 1.5 WAR is what Castro has averaged the last two years. Leave him at 2B and trade him as soon as possible.

Ideally opening day is Prado-Rojas-Castro-Bour, and when Castro (or Prado) is eventually traded and Anderson's service time rolls over in Mid-May, he comes up to take someone's place at 3B.

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Ya looking at his defensive numbers on fangraphs and they were better than i thought. i think he is one of the guys that gets a lot of errors but his actual defensive performance isnt bad.

He probably got more criticism than deserved, but it's a "getting older" drop off too. Got to leave him at 2B and hope the bat keeps improving.

[Lee Stone]

Your commentary on a Realmuto/WASH deal is all good. My priorities there are Kieboom, Johnson and Read. Anything else is gravy. Rojas or Riddle at SS though? No production. Prado at 2B? Way too immobile.

[lou]

Stats disagree with you on Rojas, and Prado is not on the team by August 1st so no one should really care where he plays as long as he shows he's healthy enough.

Also the team is losing minimum 90 games. Production isn't really a word anyone should care about, longterm player development is all they got.

[fish16]

Your commentary on a Realmuto/WASH deal is all good. My priorities there are Kieboom, Johnson and Read. Anything else is gravy. Rojas or Riddle at SS though? No production. Prado at 2B? Way too immobile.

Kieboom Johnson and Read is a bad return for a player like Realmuto.

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If we dont get Soto i likely wouldnt make any deal, but at the very least id need Kieboom, one of those 18 year old SS's they have, Romero, and then Read the catcher but since he's suspended id also need a 5th lower level guy denbo likes for Realmuto and one of our relievers.

[Lee Stone]

It's a bad return? I like Kieboom and Johnson a lot better than Tucker and Soto.

[fish16]

It's a bad return? I like Kieboom and Johnson a lot better than Tucker and Soto.

then you dont know what youre talking about.

[emkayseven]

Not a huge Johnson fan but personally I’d prefer Kieboom+++ over Tucker or Soto with no or one additional piece. I like Kieboom, and at this point I’m happy they’re going for quantity. You’ve got a better chance statistically at hitting on guys as superstars. Plenty of top prospects flame out

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That having been said I still don’t think we should trade JT unless it is an absolutely crazy overpay. Even the deals that Lou is working out, they are assuming value for value and I don’t see the point in doing it

[tjfla]

Blue Jays signed Jaime Garcia for 1 year, $8M.

Vargas to NYM . 8 mil per year is what mid level guys are wanting.We are offering 3 mil +incentives

Not a priority however for us

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Not a huge Johnson fan but personally I’d prefer Kieboom+++ over Tucker or Soto with no or one additional piece. I like Kieboom, and at this point I’m happy they’re going for quantity. You’ve got a better chance statistically at hitting on guys as superstars. Plenty of top prospects flame out

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That having been said I still don’t think we should trade JT unless it is an absolutely crazy overpay. Even the deals that Lou is working out, they are assuming value for value and I don’t see the point in doing it

Johnson is Sierra with more power. If u take Kieboom as the centerpiece then u need Kieboom/Fedde OR Romero/Antuna OR Garcia/Johnson/Severino just to make it a deent deal. Issue with Kieboom is he likely will have to move to 3B which kills value. We have a young 3B and 2 others(Dunand/Nelson) who aren't bad

Read won't be in trade. Drug suspension killed his value

Like lou said we don't need OF's. The only reason Tucker and Soto/Robles are discussed is because Best Prospect the team has. It is about collecting talent right now. They need SS/1B/C and arms in the minors. Tucker could be moved to 1B as his value is in his bat.

If goes to "plan" this is the OF depth in 2020

LF-Martinez/Brian Miller
CF-Sierra/Harrison
RF-Brinson

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All that being said I wouldn't mind either of these trades as I believe in the get depth and build system

Wash-Kieboom/Romero/Garcia/Severino/Johnson or other mid level guy
Hou-Alvarez/Armenteros/Nova/Stassi/Rights to Elieser