Marlins 2017-2018 Offseason Discussion Thread

[sports24/7]

Yes, prospects are not known commodities, correct. But the top 5 guys are just about as certain assets, let alone a guy who isnt a star like Jt, despite his positional value. Just because prospects arent sure things doesnt mean every proven player that is good but not great is worth up to the top 5 prospect in baseball. IF there wasnt this 6 years of team control and all players were treated alike, sure, but when you have as close to a sure fire star as there is who will be under team control for 6 years and for the absolute minimum for 3 years who is ML ready, ya, thats more valuable than JT. And most people are scoffing at the Marlins asking for Robles or at least admitting that this is completely unrealistic, so im not sure what youre talking about. There is no one who thinks Robles is a realistic asking price for JT. He might be someone you ask for, obviously, but he is someone who under no circumstances you will get. Just like Acuna was for Yelich. If they were still in the sally league or something like Soto maybe, but for guys who are clearly stars and are ML ready as quickly as April, no shot.

And JT is someone they ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO TRADE at the very least by the deadline if he wont sign an extension given that there is close to 0 chance he will re-sign within the year. If you wait until after this year, youre gonna lose the value you are now waiting on attaining.

Soto isnt an overpay. Hes exactly the prospect that makes sense for both sides. Robles is ML ready and the closest thing to a sure fire star as prospects get on a team that has an OF hole and is trying to win the WS this year to convince Harper to re-sign. Soto is a great chance of a star, but is the appropriate price given that he is a top 20-30 prospect in baseball but also a few years away for a team that is trying to compete and win the WS this year. It makes sense for both sides whereas Robles makes absolutely 0 sense for the nats to give up for a player of JT's caliber.

the funny thing is, they likely will be able to get the nats to cave on soto. If not, i likely will not be in favor of the deal unless they get something like Kieboom, Fedde, Read, the 18 year old SS, and another really good prospect. That deal wouldnt be ideal, but it also wouldnt be terrible value given both team's timelines. Id hold out as long as possible for Soto, but if you get to as far as the trade deadline and the best offer is that exact nats offer, you take that and dont look back. Youll end up holding onto a diminishing asset into the offseason who every team knows has 0 intention of re-signing, just next year youll have a year less of team control to hold over the opposing teams head.

And just because i wanted flaherty doesnt mean that taking Alcantara and getting more prospects was a bad deal. Getting flaherty likely meant getting a lesser additional return, so i dont blame the team at all for trying to get more prospect depth in a truly terrible all around system as well as taking a risk for a possible top of the rotation arm that most rankings dont actually separate all that much in Flaherty and Alcantara.

What you're saying is patently false. There are plenty of cases of top 5 prospects that didn't become stars. More than top 5 prospects that do. So any assumption that Robles is destined for stardom is misguided. Could he be a star? Sure. Is it even close to as certain as you say? Not at all.

Again, the Marlins do not have to trade Realmuto (a player they have under team control for another three years at peanuts), and they certainly don't have to trade him now for a shitty return from a division rival. The notion that he won't re-sign is based on what exactly? That there are rumors he is unhappy right now? Time heals, and money matters. If Miami comes to him with a good deal, there is a fair chance he'd re-sign. As for losing any value on him, if you move him for a shitty package, that's not a whole lot of value to begin with. I'd rather take my chances.

Soto isn't an overpay. We agree on that (although I anticipate this argument changing when the Marlins get a worse deal). But haven't we heard from the beginning that they'd need an overpay to move Realmuto?

It's comical to listen to your blind faith in this organization. You expect the Marlins to get the Nationals to come up on their offer based on what exactly? The fact that they've had to come down from their asking price on every deal so far? I hope you're right, but I'm not going to hold my breath on that. In a matter of two sentences you move from saying you'd be upset if they don't get Soto, to convincing yourself that a shitty package of one mildly decent prospect and a bunch of longshots might make you change your mind. That leads me to believe you don't even buy what your saying about Soto, and that deep down you're already prepping to defend the move despite common sense saying it would be trash.

I already gave a detailed account of comments you made about how you would be disappointed if Alcantara was the headliner in that deal, and then quickly said you liked the deal once we found out what it was. I can try and go back again, but I'd rather not have to waste the time just to prove the same point I already have.

I get it. You're an optimist. You want to believe that it's all going to work out in the end (and maybe it will). I envy that in a way. But at some point you need to take an objective look at how this team is operating. They simply aren't managing their value very well, and trading Realmuto for anything less than a premiere prospect would be their worst offense.

[fish16]

What you're saying is patently false. There are plenty of cases of top 5 prospects that didn't become stars. More than top 5 prospects that do. So any assumption that Robles is destined for stardom is misguided. Could he be a star? Sure. Is it even close to as certain as you say? Not at all.

Again, the Marlins do not have to trade Realmuto (a player they have under team control for another three years at peanuts), and they certainly don't have to trade him now for a shitty return from a division rival. The notion that he won't re-sign is based on what exactly? That there are rumors he is unhappy right now? Time heals, and money matters. If Miami comes to him with a good deal, there is a fair chance he'd re-sign. As for losing any value on him, if you move him for a shitty package, that's not a whole lot of value to begin with. I'd rather take my chances.

Soto isn't an overpay. We agree on that (although I anticipate this argument changing when the Marlins get a worse deal). But haven't we heard from the beginning that they'd need an overpay to move Realmuto?

It's comical to listen to your blind faith in this organization. You expect the Marlins to get the Nationals to come up on their offer based on what exactly? The fact that they've had to come down from their asking price on every deal so far? I hope you're right, but I'm not going to hold my breath on that. In a matter of two sentences you move from saying you'd be upset if they don't get Soto, to convincing yourself that a shitty package of one mildly decent prospect and a bunch of longshots might make you change your mind. That leads me to believe you don't even buy what your saying about Soto, and that deep down you're already prepping to defend the move despite common sense saying it would be trash.

I already gave a detailed account of comments you made about how you would be disappointed if Alcantara was the headliner in that deal, and then quickly said you liked the deal once we found out what it was. I can try and go back again, but I'd rather not have to waste the time just to prove the same point I already have.

I get it. You're an optimist. You want to believe that it's all going to work out in the end (and maybe it will). I envy that in a way. But at some point you need to take an objective look at how this team is operating. They simply aren't managing their value very well, and trading Realmuto for anything less than a premiere prospect would be their worst offense.

At no point in my post did i say all top 5 propects become stars. In fact i explicitly said that obviously prospects arent known commodities. But Robles is ML ready, they have an OF need, he has absolutely dominated every level he's been at at a young age for each level, and he even came up in September and held his own at 20 years old. 6 years of the potential of him being a star level 4-5 tool prospect is worth more than JT.

And again, if Realmuto doesnt sign an extension they absolutely do have to trade him. The notion that he wont re-sign is based on the fact that he's already requested a trade and upcoming years of terrible teams is likely not going to want to make him re-sign any more. You can take your chances, but when he inevitably doesnt re-sign here you've now lost the value youre complaining about not getting currently, let alone the possibility of losing him for nothing just to have him on terrible teams the next fe years.

I expect the nationals to come up on their offer because i dont think the marlins will trade him unless they get Soto and the nationals are going to go all in in harper's last year to try to convince him to re-sign. Its evident from the free agents they have been reported to be interested in. And I think they really need to get Soto and id probably not make the deal otherwise, but that doesnt mean there isnt a deal somewhere in there that would be good value. It would have to be a package of like 5 guys, but its not impossible. Id prefer and would likely holdout for the top prospect future potential star, but that doesnt mean there isnt a good potential deal in there without him.

You've also continued to say time and time again that the marlins have had to come down on their asking price on every deal without any actual evidence of that. If you mean that they ask for a guy like Acuna or Anthony Reyes then no shit they are gonna have to come down on their asking price. They arent coming down on their asking price because they are terrible negotiators, its because their initial asking price is absurd and never had a chance to begin with.

Again, I was dissapointed that Alcantara was the headliner in the deal. Ive said so numerous times. That doesnt mean I cant both have wanted a safer headliner in the deal in Flaherty while also acknowledging that I really liked the remaining package they ended up getting which was likely due in part to taking a riskier headliner. Not to mention they appeared to be going for more quantity in exchange for a little lesser quality from the headliner as a means of addressing the complete lack of depth in the system. Thats been apparent in the Phelps, Ozuna, and Dee trade and Jeter and Hill have flat out come out and say that explicitly.

And i disagree that they arent managing their value well. The Yelich trade was great. Ozuna trade gave us good quantity and essentially rides on Alcantara and what he becomes, but that doesnt mean they didnt get good value. Also, assessing the value of prospects they got before any of them play a game in any marlins affiliates uniforms is just nonsense. Im not saying they did or didnt get great value, but you have no idea at this point. The Miguel trade looked like great value too and it was terrible. If you want to come back a year or 2 from now and assess how they did, fine, but to consistently complain about the value they got in prospects you've never even seen play is kind of ridiculous.

[rmc523]

At no point in my post did i say all top 5 propects become stars. In fact i explicitly said that obviously prospects arent known commodities. But Robles is ML ready, they have an OF need, he has absolutely dominated every level he's been at at a young age for each level, and he even came up in September and held his own at 20 years old. 6 years of the potential of him being a star level 4-5 tool prospect is worth more than JT.

And again, if Realmuto doesnt sign an extension they absolutely do have to trade him. The notion that he wont re-sign is based on the fact that he's already requested a trade and upcoming years of terrible teams is likely not going to want to make him re-sign any more. You can take your chances, but when he inevitably doesnt re-sign here you've now lost the value youre complaining about not getting currently, let alone the possibility of losing him for nothing just to have him on terrible teams the next fe years.

I expect the nationals to come up on their offer because i dont think the marlins will trade him unless they get Soto and the nationals are going to go all in in harper's last year to try to convince him to re-sign. Its evident from the free agents they have been reported to be interested in. And I think they really need to get Soto and id probably not make the deal otherwise, but that doesnt mean there isnt a deal somewhere in there that would be good value. It would have to be a package of like 5 guys, but its not impossible. Id prefer and would likely holdout for the top prospect future potential star, but that doesnt mean there isnt a good potential deal in there without him.

You've also continued to say time and time again that the marlins have had to come down on their asking price on every deal without any actual evidence of that. If you mean that they ask for a guy like Acuna or Anthony Reyes then no shit they are gonna have to come down on their asking price. They arent coming down on their asking price because they are terrible negotiators, its because their initial asking price is absurd and never had a chance to begin with.

Again, I was dissapointed that Alcantara was the headliner in the deal. Ive said so numerous times. That doesnt mean I cant both have wanted a safer headliner in the deal in Flaherty while also acknowledging that I really liked the remaining package they ended up getting which was likely due in part to taking a riskier headliner. Not to mention they appeared to be going for more quantity in exchange for a little lesser quality from the headliner as a means of addressing the complete lack of depth in the system. Thats been apparent in the Phelps, Ozuna, and Dee trade and Jeter and Hill have flat out come out and say that explicitly.

And i disagree that they arent managing their value well. The Yelich trade was great. Ozuna trade gave us good quantity and essentially rides on Alcantara and what he becomes, but that doesnt mean they didnt get good value. Also, assessing the value of prospects they got before any of them play a game in any marlins affiliates uniforms is just nonsense. Im not saying they did or didnt get great value, but you have no idea at this point. The Miguel trade looked like great value too and it was terrible. If you want to come back a year or 2 from now and assess how they did, fine, but to consistently complain about the value they got in prospects you've never even seen play is kind of ridiculous.

Have you been watching the team the last....decade? We get raked over the coals in pretty much EVERY trade, whether it's acquiring a player, or trading away one. Everyone knows to wait us out, and we'll take whatever is offered to facilitate a deal, especially if you take on money. Without evidence? You obviously haven't been looking at any of the trades. "someone will have to over pay to get Ozuna, someone will have to overpay for Yelich, overpay for Realmuto". Yet there hasn't been a single overpay, and I have 0 faith that they'll get their "overpay" for Realmuto.

[fish16]

Have you been watching the team the last....decade? We get raked over the coals in pretty much EVERY trade, whether it's acquiring a player, or trading away one. Everyone knows to wait us out, and we'll take whatever is offered to facilitate a deal, especially if you take on money. Without evidence? You obviously haven't been looking at any of the trades. "someone will have to over pay to get Ozuna, someone will have to overpay for Yelich, overpay for Realmuto". Yet there hasn't been a single overpay, and I have 0 faith that they'll get their "overpay" for Realmuto.

Are we talking about the past decade or the trades this offseason? I dont really care about the moves under the previous ownership anymore as its pretty clear Loria was meddling in a way that put his front office in a severe disadvantage. We've gotten solid value for every player we've moved thus far, especially Yelich and Dee.

[fish16]

If they do end up caving on Soto, i wouldnt be surprised to see us let go of getting Kieboom on top of him and instead go after Yasel Antuna as a sort of compromise to getting Soto. Incredibly young, but what he did last year as a 17 year old in the GCL is incredibly impressive and would fit our timeline too.

[lou]

Have you been watching the team the last....decade? We get raked over the coals in pretty much EVERY trade, whether it's acquiring a player, or trading away one. Everyone knows to wait us out, and we'll take whatever is offered to facilitate a deal, especially if you take on money. Without evidence? You obviously haven't been looking at any of the trades. "someone will have to over pay to get Ozuna, someone will have to overpay for Yelich, overpay for Realmuto". Yet there hasn't been a single overpay, and I have 0 faith that they'll get their "overpay" for Realmuto.

Raked over the coals is a bit much for me. If a WAR in free agency is $10 million which is pretty consistent...


Gordon worth $60-90 (skills declining likely with age for a speedster), costs $38, value somewhere $30-50 in the eye of the beholder if you think he holds up. Personally, I don’t think he will and a Pierre drop is coming in a year at most.

Ozuna worth $70-100, costs probably $25, so his value is somewhere around $50-70, but we’ll also give him a bump because he will come with draft pick compensation as it’s only 2 years away, so let’s call him a very solid $60-75 in value depending on how much of a believer you are

Yelich, bejesus worth $200-225 in value easy for me, costs basically $60, so he’s worth probably $150-175.

Stanton, worth probably $180-200, costs $77, so he’s probably worth $100-125 million, but if he gets hurt or goes all Pujols on you, you get absolutely crushed if he doesn’t opt out so that lowers the value big time. Not to mention a no trade clause. I don’t know what is fair here, but halving it may be reasonable to a $60ish range based on the franchise crushing contract if he doesn’t work out.

If we’re looking at what they got:

They probably got $30-40 in prospect value (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valu...100-prospects/) for Gordon, so that’s fine. Nothing to bitch about here.

Ozuna, they probably only got around $50-60 in prospect value so the Cardinals did good here. Alcantara or Sierra should have been slightly upgraded to their next best respective pitcher or hitter, but we know that already.

Yelich, they probably got around $130+, with the caveat that Harrison, Diaz, and Yamamto may increase their stock as they have youth, injury, and fun spin rate arguments that they are better than their rating. This is probably relatively fair as my own internal bias that Yelich is so awesome, is probably mitigated by the fact he will eventually have a 3 WAR “down” year which bridges the gap.

Stanton, they probably got close to that $60 in value between Castro (he’s probably worth $20-30+ with his contract), Guzman, and Devers, and will get absolutely crushed by this trade if Stanton doesn’t opt out and they have to pay the Yankees $30 million. I guess this one depends on how much one wants to discount his huge contract liability, and that is certainly up for debate. I don’t know if halving his contract is reasonable or not, just musing for the sake of it.


Ultimately here, they should have gotten Flaherty for Alcantara, and Stanton is tough and I don’t know what to do there as it is so much money on the backend of that contract. The Yankees will make out like bandits if he performs and he doesn’t opt out, but I just can’t fault this too much as if he majorly hurts his back the next 3 years, you’re fucked. I would bank on him being healthy too and opting out, which I think both teams are gambling on.

So long story short, for me, I’m probably looking at getting Flaherty instead of Alcantara, likely looking at getting a guy like Neidert/Sierra added to Stanton package and/or less backend contingency money, and I would probably have shot for a better pitcher in the Yelich deal, but that is more of a minor criticism (but will become a major criticism if they fail to add 4-5 more SP calibre SP prospects by August 1). If you don't want to give any discount to Stanton's potential contract liability, Marlins absolutely got crushed beyond belief as a "Brinson" AND "Harrison" level prospect are absolutely missing at a minimum. I suspect many feel that way, but I can't go that far as that contract comes with risk.

Just saying. Raked over the coals is just too much even if they could have done a little better.

[fish16]

This might shock some people, but apparently its coming out that Jeffrey Loria's reps have told the city of miami that they will be receiving nothing from the sale of the marlins.

[tjfla]

If they do end up caving on Soto, i wouldnt be surprised to see us let go of getting Kieboom on top of him and instead go after Yasel Antuna as a sort of compromise to getting Soto. Incredibly young, but what he did last year as a 17 year old in the GCL is incredibly impressive and would fit our timeline too.

Doubtful if they get Soto it would probably be

Soto/Fedde or Romero/Catcher and mid level prospect. Only chance u get Kieboom and one of the young guys(Antuna or Garcia) is if Soto is not in the deal

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Does look like they are gonna do something smart

interest in Melky Cabrera I have heard 5 names we are interested in OF Jon Jay/Melk Man SP Jaime Garcia/Ricky Nolasco/Francisco Lirano

[fish16]

Doubtful if they get Soto it would probably be

Soto/Fedde or Romero/Catcher and mid level prospect. Only chance u get Kieboom and one of the young guys(Antuna or Garcia) is if Soto is not in the deal

Idk what it is about Fedde but he just doesnt do it for me. He strikes me as very similar to many of the starters we've already acquired who might be ML pitchers but not really top of the rotation talent. I think id go Romero over him. Soto, Romero and Read and a mid level guy Denbo likes and id be cool with that.

I wish the padres got involved and I dont think its out of the question for them to do so. So many high ceiling pitchers in their system.

[Nick]

If what tj is saying is true, you move on from the Nats.

[tjfla]

It really bothers me that people who write about baseball for a living cant accurately explain service time accurately let alone explain it to their readers. It really leads to so many terrible takes about the marlins and baseball in general.

Best is when people write about certain teams but can't even get the facts straight

Mike Hill says Yamamoto,Diaz and Harrison are starting in AA. Frisaro comes out with a story the next day and mention them all likely in Jupiter

Its 50/50 if Brinson starts in Majors. They are preparing like he won't(Looking at FA OF) but if he looks great in ST they might have to start him. Like Lou said OF of DD/Melky/Van Slyke/Lee/Cooper/Ortega could get u by till May.

[Nick]

Does Mike Hill know better than Frisaro, though?

[tjfla]

Idk what it is about Fedde but he just doesnt do it for me. He strikes me as very similar to many of the starters we've already acquired who might be ML pitchers but not really top of the rotation talent. I think id go Romero over him. Soto, Romero and Read and a mid level guy Denbo likes and id be cool with that.

I wish the padres got involved and I dont think its out of the question for them to do so. So many high ceiling pitchers in their system.

Fedde is pretty much Tyler Beede. I prefer Romero as well however he has major issues with attitude/weight/drugs. I mean they could have Soto/Kieboom but the Marlins want Soto and doubt they would care about Kieboom as long as Soto is in it. Wil Crowe is an interesting guy-already had TJ and has the stuff

Tell me about it,I wish Houston,Colorado,SD,Oakland would call and make an offer. They all have pitching and atleast 1 solid position guy. Call Oakland and say Mateo/Holmes/more or Colorado and McMahon/Hampson/Lambert or SD and Urias/Baez/more

That is what is so confusing about the whole thing 6-10 teams have called on JT but they seem to be stuck on Washington

[rmc523]

Just saying. Raked over the coals is just too much even if they could have done a little better.

Sorry, I was using raked over the coals in the sense of our trade history overall, not necessarily this year's moves, though I agree, we could've done better.

[lou]

Doubtful if they get Soto it would probably be

Soto/Fedde or Romero/Catcher and mid level prospect. Only chance u get Kieboom and one of the young guys(Antuna or Garcia) is if Soto is not in the deal

I'm fine with no Kieboom, but you might need one of the young guys.

Soto, pick 1 Fedde/Romero/Crow/Antuna/Garcia, Read/Severino, and pick a C+ arm (Nick Raquet maybe?) is still a good package. Also no probs with Wieters+$5 million or a straight Wieters-Zielger/Tazawa swap as a kicker.

- - - - - - - - - -

Best is when people write about certain teams but can't even get the facts straight

Mike Hill says Yamamoto,Diaz and Harrison are starting in AA. Frisaro comes out with a story the next day and mention them all likely in Jupiter

Its 50/50 if Brinson starts in Majors. They are preparing like he won't(Looking at FA OF) but if he looks great in ST they might have to start him. Like Lou said OF of DD/Melky/Van Slyke/Lee/Cooper/Ortega could get u by till May.

I don't care if he hits .800 with 20 HR in spring training. May 8th.

If he hits .800 with 20 HR, it's actually probably more of an argument to keep him down.