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Thread: Marlins 2017-2018 Offseason Discussion Thread

  1. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by Namaste View Post
    See, you say we’ll have a consistent winner year in and year out (after 2 down years) but that’s a VERY bold statement.



    My problem with your stance on all of this is you make it sound like a FIRE SALE should be an easy pill to swallow for Marlins fans. Fuck that. It may be the right move (everyone on this forum knows that) but for Marlins fans it’s yet another train wreck that we have to stand on the side of the road and watch.

    You’re being obtuse.
    This.

    Obviously Sherman/Jeter are a different ownership group, and we don't know what they'll do to overhaul the organization player-wise (whether they actually draft, sign IFAs, FAs, etc. like a real team, or not), but we've heard that line before. We'll trade this group and then we'll have a consistent winner! We'll get a stadium, then we'll have a winner with big payrolls! Only for that to never happen.....now granted, Loria & Co. never had a plan and just did things on a whim and made whatever moves they could to save money and didn't invest in necessary areas, but still.

    As I see it, there are two ways to look at it from a fan perspective:
    1) We already don't have a true fanbase, what's another fire sale going to do if it builds a long-term winner.
    2) A fire sale decimates what little fanbase there is, and people write the team off for good.

    I'll echo Namaste's point in saying - frankly, while I know a complete rebuild is likely what's needed to reboot the franchise - a la Cubs or Astros - you can't look at this situation in a vacuum, and just assume it'll all be ok. New ownership's first move being to trade away the team's highest-paid, most well known player after a monster year which gained him some deserved national attention would do nothing but indicate it's more of the same from the Marlins despite a new owner......Jeter's name can only go so far in masking the negativity that will come from that (Sherman came off as very likable in that intro press conference too, FWIW). Again, while I know it's the best thing to do, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot from the get-go.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Namaste View Post
    See, you say we’ll have a consistent winner year in and year out (after 2 down years) but that’s a VERY bold statement.



    My problem with your stance on all of this is you make it sound like a FIRE SALE should be an easy pill to swallow for Marlins fans. Fuck that. It may be the right move (everyone on this forum knows that) but for Marlins fans it’s yet another train wreck that we have to stand on the side of the road and watch.

    You’re being obtuse.
    After 2 years would be the short end of a fire sale/rebuild, and i stand by that, meaning at the beginning of year 3 if done correctly we should start to see serious progress and a consistent young winner on the horizon that is sustainable.

    If Im making it seem like a fire sale should be an easy pill to swallow, I didnt mean to put that tone out there. What im saying is simply from a front office and team building perspective, you have to do the right thing, and due to the mismanagement of the previous regime, the right thing unfortunately is to blow all of this up. I understand why Marlins fans would be super pissed if we do another fire sale, trust me I absolutely get it and would fully understand why fans would be pissed. But this current regime needs to be graded separately from the previous ownership and they should be awarded the opportunity to do it their way and build a consistent winner the right way.

    But trust me, i fully understand that there will be a huge backlash against this new ownership if/when we blow it up this offseason, I just think that they cant worry about that in the slightest to continue to be a mediocre team. Listen, this team isnt good and is literally 2-3 top of the rotation pitchers away with no resources to achieve getting those resources. The previous ownership cheaped out time and time again with the draft and IFA, made ridiculously bad trades, and when they did sign guys they gave terrible contracts out. Sure, we can go out and sign Darvish and the other Japanese guy for like another 35-40 million total a year, but that's simply not feasible given our current contracts. That's all i'm saying.

    - - - - - - - - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by rmc523 View Post
    This.

    Obviously Sherman/Jeter are a different ownership group, and we don't know what they'll do to overhaul the organization player-wise (whether they actually draft, sign IFAs, FAs, etc. like a real team, or not), but we've heard that line before. We'll trade this group and then we'll have a consistent winner! We'll get a stadium, then we'll have a winner with big payrolls! Only for that to never happen.....now granted, Loria & Co. never had a plan and just did things on a whim and made whatever moves they could to save money and didn't invest in necessary areas, but still.

    As I see it, there are two ways to look at it from a fan perspective:
    1) We already don't have a true fanbase, what's another fire sale going to do if it builds a long-term winner.
    2) A fire sale decimates what little fanbase there is, and people write the team off for good.

    I'll echo Namaste's point in saying - frankly, while I know a complete rebuild is likely what's needed to reboot the franchise - a la Cubs or Astros - you can't look at this situation in a vacuum, and just assume it'll all be ok. New ownership's first move being to trade away the team's highest-paid, most well known player after a monster year which gained him some deserved national attention would do nothing but indicate it's more of the same from the Marlins despite a new owner......Jeter's name can only go so far in masking the negativity that will come from that (Sherman came off as very likable in that intro press conference too, FWIW). Again, while I know it's the best thing to do, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot from the get-go.
    And we just disagree. Do you really think if we run this same team back out there next year and finish around .500 all of a sudden the fans will come out? No. This stadium will only be filled when we start to win. And we just cant win with this current roster and the amount of salary we have for the foreseeable future.

    I do agree that those 2 options are the 2 options, I just think this can work out for the best both ways if they frame it correctly. We ALL know the rebuild is the best option to turn us into a legit contender. I would feel much differently if we still had Jose or some other ace or even #2 quality starter, but our rotation has absolutely nothing of consequence at the top, and that will always lead us to being inconsistent like we have been.

    I think when they do go with the rebuild, if they explain it in the starkest terms how incompetent the previous front office was and just how badly they left this organization, fans would understand. Fans will always be pissed when you rebuild, especially when that includes trading a star, but if they explain the state of our future contracts, our future salary constraints, how completely barren our minor league system is/was, how little was spent on creating a sustainable team through the draft and IFA, and then explain how teams like the Astros and Cubs have built teams that will be contenders for the next decade by doing this kind of rebuild, and eventually most fans will understand. They might not be happy, but, and maybe im giving them too much credit, I think they will understand.

    If we were packing the stadium currently and had this great fan base around this mediocre team, I might feel differently, but this has proven time and time again to be a bandwagon town that will only support a consistent winner. We will have terrible support while we rebuild, i 100% agree, but I think if framed properly and explained with the right context and tone that would go a long way to getting the best of both worlds: a consistent, sustainable, good young team and a strong (or however strong it can be) fanbase.

    - - - - - - - - - -

    With all that said, and we all know this, but it is hard to put into words just how much Jose's death absolutely crippled this franchise as far as it's on the field future, whether they signed him long term or traded him for the sale package (Moncada, Kopech, etc).

    - - - - - - - - - -

    And I think this is not like a team like the Astros or Cubs that had very few assets when they started their complete overhaul. This team has like 6 legit players with really good trade value. Stanton will get a huge haul regardless, Ozuna will get 2 top prospects, Bour could get several nice prospects or a really good prospect, Dee can get a good haul, Straily can get a good return based on his health and team control, and then Yelich and JT can get enormous returns if we go that deep into a rebuild.

    - - - - - - - - - -

    Just to get an idea of how many really good, team controlled players we can get, lets look at a hypothetical offseason:

    Stanton and Bour to the Sox for Devers, Rodriguez, and Benintendi
    Ozuna to the Jays for Vlad Jr/Bichette, Reid-Foley, and a lesser prospect
    Dee to the Angels for their top pick from last year who is a young OF.
    Yelich to the Cardinals for Reyes, Weaver or Flaherty, and one of their OF prospects.
    Straily to whoever for a variety of lesser prospects to improve the depth of the organization.
    Then you also have Realmuto, I just dont know who would need/be interested in a catcher this offseason because I havent done enough research on that yet. Maybe the phillies?

    Then you just tank for a year or 2 and actually spend money in the draft and youve got a cheap, young winner, and I think you would then have the salary flexibility in the future to add another rotation guy or lineup bat if the opportunity presents itself, similar to what the Astros did with a guy like Reddick this year or the Cubs did with lester a few years ago.

    I know that would suck to trade all those guys, but that would be an absolutely incredible offseason. That was probably completely unrealistic, just what i'd be shooting for and ecstatic for.
    Last edited by fish16; 10-18-2017 at 02:33 PM.

  3. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by fish16 View Post
    After 2 years would be the short end of a fire sale/rebuild, and i stand by that, meaning at the beginning of year 3 if done correctly we should start to see serious progress and a consistent young winner on the horizon that is sustainable.

    If Im making it seem like a fire sale should be an easy pill to swallow, I didnt mean to put that tone out there. What im saying is simply from a front office and team building perspective, you have to do the right thing, and due to the mismanagement of the previous regime, the right thing unfortunately is to blow all of this up. I understand why Marlins fans would be super pissed if we do another fire sale, trust me I absolutely get it and would fully understand why fans would be pissed. But this current regime needs to be graded separately from the previous ownership and they should be awarded the opportunity to do it their way and build a consistent winner the right way.

    But trust me, i fully understand that there will be a huge backlash against this new ownership if/when we blow it up this offseason, I just think that they cant worry about that in the slightest to continue to be a mediocre team. Listen, this team isnt good and is literally 2-3 top of the rotation pitchers away with no resources to achieve getting those resources. The previous ownership cheaped out time and time again with the draft and IFA, made ridiculously bad trades, and when they did sign guys they gave terrible contracts out. Sure, we can go out and sign Darvish and the other Japanese guy for like another 35-40 million total a year, but that's simply not feasible given our current contracts. That's all i'm saying.

    - - - - - - - - - -



    And we just disagree. Do you really think if we run this same team back out there next year and finish around .500 all of a sudden the fans will come out? No. This stadium will only be filled when we start to win. And we just cant win with this current roster and the amount of salary we have for the foreseeable future.

    I do agree that those 2 options are the 2 options, I just think this can work out for the best both ways if they frame it correctly. We ALL know the rebuild is the best option to turn us into a legit contender. I would feel much differently if we still had Jose or some other ace or even #2 quality starter, but our rotation has absolutely nothing of consequence at the top, and that will always lead us to being inconsistent like we have been.

    I think when they do go with the rebuild, if they explain it in the starkest terms how incompetent the previous front office was and just how badly they left this organization, fans would understand. Fans will always be pissed when you rebuild, especially when that includes trading a star, but if they explain the state of our future contracts, our future salary constraints, how completely barren our minor league system is/was, how little was spent on creating a sustainable team through the draft and IFA, and then explain how teams like the Astros and Cubs have built teams that will be contenders for the next decade by doing this kind of rebuild, and eventually most fans will understand. They might not be happy, but, and maybe im giving them too much credit, I think they will understand.

    If we were packing the stadium currently and had this great fan base around this mediocre team, I might feel differently, but this has proven time and time again to be a bandwagon town that will only support a consistent winner. We will have terrible support while we rebuild, i 100% agree, but I think if framed properly and explained with the right context and tone that would go a long way to getting the best of both worlds: a consistent, sustainable, good young team and a strong (or however strong it can be) fanbase.
    I think where the problem lies with the bolded part, is that while yes, they deserve to be graded separately from Loria, the team has had 3 (now 4) owners in its history, and they've had 3 massive fire sales under two owners, and now a 4th under a 3rd owner looks likely. That's why it looks worse and is harder to give them the benefit of the doubt (especially with Hill still in charge).

    The loss of Jose definitely crippled us (heck, we'd have probably made the Wild Card with him, IMO) both on current teams and the future.

  4. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc523 View Post
    I think where the problem lies with the bolded part, is that while yes, they deserve to be graded separately from Loria, the team has had 3 (now 4) owners in its history, and they've had 3 massive fire sales under two owners, and now a 4th under a 3rd owner looks likely. That's why it looks worse and is harder to give them the benefit of the doubt (especially with Hill still in charge).

    The loss of Jose definitely crippled us (heck, we'd have probably made the Wild Card with him, IMO) both on current teams and the future.
    I completely understand your point, I just think that this is such a different reason for the fire sale than the other ones. 2005 fire sale was for money, 1997 was for money, I just dont view this one as being for money, although money is no doubt a factor. This is about building a sustainable contender with an actual plan. Hell, id just be ecstatic that, if the full rebuild is the plan, that we actually have a plan. We have been operating based upon Loria's daily whims for like 10 years now, which will absolutely ensure us the results we've had: mediocrity and a train wreck.

    And yes, with Jose i'd be all for bringing it back with some tweaks here and there. It's just that the loss of Jose, not being able to re-sign him or trade him for the Sale haul, and having Straily as our best SP when he wouldnt be a playoff starter on most playoff teams, leaves us with really no choice. But yes, trust me, I completely understand why fans will be livid when this inevitably happens in the next few months. I just focus more on stuff like team structure and long term sustainability rather than the fan reaction.

  5. #155
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    This will be an unprecedented move by the Marlins, right?

    Trading a guy who just hit 59 HR’s and put up a 7 WAR?


    Has anyone been that good in a year and traded that offseason?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Namaste View Post
    This will be an unprecedented move by the Marlins, right?

    Trading a guy who just hit 59 HR’s and put up a 7 WAR?


    Has anyone been that good in a year and traded that offseason?
    I mean very few people have hit 59 hr's, so probably not, but id assume 7 war guys get traded relatively often. Just looking through stars off the top of my head who were traded, and a lot of them were within the high 5's and 6's of WAR, but the only one i found at 7 was when Sabathia put up a 7 WAR the season he was traded from the indians to the brewers, but some of that 7 WAR was with the brewers and he was an upcoming free agent.

    Matt Holliday put up a 6.9 WAR the year before he was traded at the deadline to the Cards.
    Texeira also put up a 6.9 War the year he was traded from Atlanta to the Angels at the deadline. Again he was an upcoming free agent though.
    Roy Halladay was traded to the Phillies in the offseason after a 7.0 WAR in Toronto.
    Jays also traded Clemens to the Yanks after an 8 War year.
    Arod was traded to the Yanks after a 9 WAR year in a similar situation where his contract was just too much for the Rangers I believe. I could be getting the rationale behind that move wrong though cause I was fairly young then.

    So it does happen.
    Last edited by fish16; 10-19-2017 at 11:39 AM.

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    I'm of the opinion that the Marlins "fanbase" is pretty much nonexistent so it does not matter what Sherman/Jeter do for now, if they win the bandwagon South Florida fans like myself will quickly jump back on board, and that's all you really can ask for as an ownership group. So basically it's no real risk to tear down the entire team including a generational player like Stanton. End goal is to get in championship series = fans will come.

    Nowhere to go but up from here; we've already reached this hypothetical rock bottom of losing the core marlin fan that is being thrown around in this thread.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Godfather View Post
    I'm of the opinion that the Marlins "fanbase" is pretty much nonexistent so it does not matter what Sherman/Jeter do for now, if they win the bandwagon South Florida fans like myself will quickly jump back on board, and that's all you really can ask for as an ownership group. So basically it's no real risk to tear down the entire team including a generational player like Stanton. End goal is to get in championship series = fans will come.

    Nowhere to go but up from here; we've already reached this hypothetical rock bottom of losing the core marlin fan that is being thrown around in this thread.
    my thoughts exactly. People love stanton so much that we haven't opened the upper deck pretty much ever in years. Win and prove you are committed to winning more than money and the fans will come out here. It's as simple as that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fish16 View Post
    I mean very few people have hit 59 hr's, so probably not, but id assume 7 war guys get traded relatively often. Just looking through stars off the top of my head who were traded, and a lot of them were within the high 5's and 6's of WAR, but the only one i found at 7 was when Sabathia put up a 7 WAR the season he was traded from the indians to the brewers, but some of that 7 WAR was with the brewers and he was an upcoming free agent.

    Matt Holliday put up a 6.9 WAR the year before he was traded at the deadline to the Cards.
    Texeira also put up a 6.9 War the year he was traded from Atlanta to the Angels at the deadline. Again he was an upcoming free agent though.
    Roy Halladay was traded to the Phillies in the offseason after a 7.0 WAR in Toronto.
    Jays also traded Clemens to the Yanks after an 8 War year.
    Arod was traded to the Yanks after a 9 WAR year in a similar situation where his contract was just too much for the Rangers I believe. I could be getting the rationale behind that move wrong though cause I was fairly young then.

    So it does happen.
    I should have said, “guys that were that good who were NOT about to hit free agency

    - - - - - - - - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by fish16 View Post
    my thoughts exactly. People love stanton so much that we haven't opened the upper deck pretty much ever in years. Win and prove you are committed to winning more than money and the fans will come out here. It's as simple as that.

    The ONLY time the upper deck will have bodies in seats will be for Bark In The Park or the playoffs.

    With or without Stanton.

    Jeter is dreaming if he thinks there will be fans in the upper deck in June two years after the “rebuild”.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Namaste View Post
    I should have said, “guys that were that good who were NOT about to hit free agency

    - - - - - - - - - -




    The ONLY time the upper deck will have bodies in seats will be for Bark In The Park or the playoffs.

    With or without Stanton.

    Jeter is dreaming if he thinks there will be fans in the upper deck in June two years after the “rebuild”.
    Thats exactly the point, you cant argue that this will really alienate the fan base when that fan base hasnt even shown that it supports this team at all. The rebuild is the right thing to do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fish16 View Post
    Thats exactly the point, you cant argue that this will really alienate the fan base when that fan base hasnt even shown that it supports this team at all. The rebuild is the right thing to do.
    I think his point was - why alienate the fans when things won't change regardless?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc523 View Post
    I think his point was - why alienate the fans when things won't change regardless?
    because the other point is the marlins simply don't have enough fans to "alienate" so if things aren't going to change regardless it's not worth paying a huge contract.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc523 View Post
    I think his point was - why alienate the fans when things won't change regardless?
    Fans will come back when this team is a winner, like just about every team in sports minus a select few. This team is mediocre as is. If they rebuild it the right way we can be a consistent winner with cheap young talent similar to the astros and cubs and the fans will come out. The fans lost the chance to cry foul over this when they didnt show up for this mediocre team for going on 5 years now. I dont blame them for not showing up, but you cant all of a sudden cry foul when you never came out in the first place like the majority of them didnt.

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    Javy Guerra, Jeff Locke, Tyler Moore, and Steve Lombardozzi elected free agency. To which i say, good riddance.

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