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  • 3 Year Plan

    I grossly overestimated the team last year. 39 projected, only 26 fWAR/25 rWAR. Almost 11 WAR of that difference came from the bench (-4 fWAR, +1 projected WAR) and rotation (6.8 fWAR, 12.5 projected WAR). Only -1 fWAR difference each for our starting line up and bullpen. Did pretty good in 2014, too (31.2 fWAR, 30.5 projected WAR).

    So trying not to let that repeat this year. Still might not be harsh enough on the bench and rotation but it's hard to be harder.



    So basicallyyyyy I think we're a .500 team the next 3 years as is.

    Hitting

    I have our hitters at 19 WAR, which is essentially average. I think any regression in Dee/Hech will be made up by progression from Yelich and Ozuna. Basically is what we were last year, except this year we don't have Morse, Solano, Mathis, and McGehee (PLEASE) and their combined -3 WAR.

    The bench sticks out as being bad, and we need legit LH and RH options to replace Ichiro and Gillespie. 1B sticks out as a problem, which would also then improve the bench by moving Bour there. Outside of maybe a RH bat, none of that is happening though.

    To get from "average" to "above average", we'd have to hope for improvement from our starters. The good news being that you could easily dream at least 1 WAR each improvement on Dee, Hech, Yelich, Ozuna, and Stanton. I think our position players are in a good position. There's room to upgrade the roster, but you also hope the youthful roster improves on it's own.

    Pitching

    Like the hitting, bullpen is basically same situation as last year. Top heavy with Ramos and Capps, with everyone else contributing about 1 WAR total. This should be a good-but-not-best bullpen.

    9 WAR is actually only a bit below average for SP...except that SP is very polarized. The 6 best teams (16.6-19.2 WAR) were significantly better than the other 9 (4.3-10.1) last year. Only the Nats missed the playoffs in the first group, and the only team to finish above .500 in the second group were the Giants (who had the best hitting fWAR). "No shit" but this is the obvious hole that needs to be filled.

    2016

    Assuming around a 70m payroll again, we currently have about ~7m free. Dumping Phelps, Morris, and Dunn would be another ~7m free, giving us close to 15m for one SP. If we want to sign two, we need to break an 80m payroll. Which would still be a bottom-3 payroll this past season. Boohoo.

    2017

    Payroll is still pretty low with Salty and Dunn coming off the books. Decline Ichiro's option and trading Koehler and Cosart (I already have us getting rid of Phelps) puts us down to about 60m in obligations, which is actually less than this year. Sign two SP and we're running basically the same team in back to back years on a 80-85m payroll that's probably "second tier" good in the NL, so possible playoff potential in a weak NL East/second wild card spot.

    2018

    Firesale time, with it being the last year of Dee, Jose, Hech, Ramos, and Capps arbitration. Stanton also gone as his salary goes up significantly. We roll out with a 50m payroll mostly of unheralded rookies and veterans way past their prime that have a history with the team. Just another year in being a Marlins fan.

  • #2
    The starting rotation bombing really hurt the team last season. Henderson Alvarez getting hurt, Jose getting hurt, Latos bombing, and Cosart being injured/regressing to the mean really hurt the team last year. Sure putting guys like Koehler and Phelps in the everyday rotation isn't great, but they're serviceable #4/5 starters on a decent team. Now we don't have Haren, don't have Latos, and gave away our other options in guys like Eovaldi/Desclafani/Heaney to get to last year's team. The biggest worry I had last season was that we were trading away our contingency plans, and we've come to that point where we're seeing why it might not have been the best idea. The rotation is a dysfunctional mess currently with no backup plans in place. Either this team goes out and gets some legitimate starting pitchers (no I'm not talking about Harang and Lincecum) or suffer the same season as last year.
    Last edited by dim; 11-24-2015, 08:18 PM.

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    • #3
      My interpretation of the Marlins' plan would've been easier to type:

      Baseball-wise: There is no plan.

      Otherwise: Cut payroll; make Loria money.

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      • #4
        nny's 2018 forecast is spot on. Unless.

        Unless.


        Unless Loria is gone. Then put on your best shirt and tie and party harder than you've ever partied (Party'd).

        - - - - - - - - - -

        15 of the remaining 75 hardcore Marlins fans post at this site. There's something to be said about that (?)

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        • #5
          Originally posted by dim View Post
          The starting rotation bombing really hurt the team last season. Henderson Alvarez getting hurt, Jose getting hurt, Latos bombing, and Cosart being injured/regressing to the mean really hurt the team last year. Sure putting guys like Koehler and Phelps in the everyday rotation isn't great, but they're serviceable #4/5 starters on a decent team. Now we don't have Haren, don't have Latos, and gave away our other options in guys like Eovaldi/Desclafani/Heaney to get to last year's team. The biggest worry I had last season was that we were trading away our contingency plans, and we've come to that point where we're seeing why it might not have been the best idea. The rotation is a dysfunctional mess currently with no backup plans in place. Either this team goes out and gets some legitimate starting pitchers (no I'm not talking about Harang and Lincecum) or suffer the same season as last year.
          I don't regret trade Eovaldi. He's expensive and suffers from the Nolascos. And I don't think Disco is much better than what we have, I'd probably only have him down at a 1.5 WAR.

          Heaney and Rodon are just huge issues though. Sign a Zimmerman or something for 15m per to put up 3+ WAR. Jose/Zimmerman/Rodon/Heaney/Koehler and we'd probably break 15 WAR with our rotation on a 70m budget.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by nny View Post
            I don't regret trade Eovaldi. He's expensive and suffers from the Nolascos. And I don't think Disco is much better than what we have, I'd probably only have him down at a 1.5 WAR.

            Heaney and Rodon are just huge issues though. Sign a Zimmerman or something for 15m per to put up 3+ WAR. Jose/Zimmerman/Rodon/Heaney/Koehler and we'd probably break 15 WAR with our rotation on a 70m budget.
            Gordon mitigates Heaney a bit, but not taking Rodon is an embarrassment.

            I think two 2.5+ WAR SP, and Stanton/Fernandez having 7-8 WAR years, and Yelich/Ozuna/Realmuto/Gordon cumulatively adding 2-3 more WAR from your projections gets another 10 on the WAR. None of that is beyond the realm of possibility.

            This all comes down to them spending to add the 3-4 guys they need.

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            • #7
              I meant the Nicolino thing where they originally asked for him. Those two moves (Rodon) have hampered us so much.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by lou View Post
                Gordon mitigates Heaney a bit, but not taking Rodon is an embarrassment.

                I think two 2.5+ WAR SP, and Stanton/Fernandez having 7-8 WAR years, and Yelich/Ozuna/Realmuto/Gordon cumulatively adding 2-3 more WAR from your projections gets another 10 on the WAR. None of that is beyond the realm of possibility.

                This all comes down to them spending to add the 3-4 guys they need.
                You always do that kind of math, but 3/4 guys improving with no one falling off just doesn't happen.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Mainge View Post
                  You always do that kind of math, but 3/4 guys improving with no one falling off just doesn't happen.
                  Totally, this is what they think though. They want to field the cheapest team that if everything goes right, squeaks into the playoffs.

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                  • #10
                    The margin for error is much greater for a cheap young team that could win. It does happen sometimes, like this past year with New York and Houston, and the year before with Kansas City, but the fundamental difference between being a good young team and a team that should compete is supplementing the young guys with consistent veteran performers (i.e. money) so that when regression does eventually happen, you at least have a contingency plan.

                    The Marlins plan of "hope everyone gets better and no one gets worse" worked maybe three times in the Loria era. They won a world series with that, sure, but it happened in 2008 and they didn't even make the playoffs. Fuck, it happened two years in a row, and they didn't make the playoffs.

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                    • #11
                      Imagine that this team was once in the playoffs

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Namaste View Post
                        Imagine that this team was once in the playoffs
                        That's pretty much the 3 year plan too: imagine the team in the playoffs...

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