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Will Christian Yelich Hit for Power?

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  • Will Christian Yelich Hit for Power?

    This is a discussion a lot of us here have had...

    Miami Marlins left fielder Christian Yelich quietly had a terrific 2014 season. Just 22 years old, the 23rd pick in the 2010 draft hit .284/.362/.402, scored 94 runs and won a Gold Glove in his first full season in the majors -- not bad for a former high school first baseman. (I'd like to know who played outfield on that team.) The defensive metrics backed up the Gold Glove, helping Yelich to 3.6 Baseball-Reference WAR and 4.3 FanGraphs WAR.

    Yelich started 138 times in the leadoff spot, but the Marlins acquired Dee Gordon in the offseason, so Yelich likely moves down to second or third in the order, where the expectation may be that as he gets older he'll add some power after hitting just nine home runs in 2014.



    In Yelich's case, however, it's not just about adding strength or learning to turn on the ball. He has a natural inside-out swing, as you can see from the hit chart to the right: 59 percent of the fly balls he hit went to left field and just 8 percent to right field. But the kicker is he doesn't hit that many fly balls to begin with. Among players with at least 350 plate appearances, Yelich had the fourth highest rate of ground balls to fly balls in the majors:

    1. Everth Cabrera, 5.45
    2. Ben Revere, 4.51
    3. Norichika Aoki, 3.63
    4. Christian Yelich, 3.42
    5. Dee Gordon, 3.13
    6. Derek Jeter, 3.06
    7. Adam Eaton, 2.96
    8. Ichiro Suzuki, 2.95
    9. Howie Kendrick, 2.85
    10. Elvis Andrus, 2.81

    That's not a list of power hitters. The group combined to hit 32 home runs, half of those from Yelich and Kendrick. While most of these guys are slap-and-dash speedster types, Yelich is 6-foot-3, 200 pounds. He at least has the frame to hit for more power if he can hit more fly balls.

    Will he?

    Let's do a little study. FanGraphs has batted-ball data back to 2002. I did a search for all players 23 or younger, at least 350 plate appearances. Is there anybody who had a ground ball-to-fly ball ratio similar to Yelich's who developed power?

    Part of the problem with finding a comparable player is Yelich's ratio is actually second highest on the list, behind Revere's 2011 season. So he's already a pretty extreme outlier. The top of the list includes a bunch of Andrus seasons and a couple of Jose Tabata seasons. Tabata hit .299 as a rookie at age 21 but his power never developed. Increasing the age cutoff to 25 doesn't offer much help (or hope).

    There are a couple of players lower on the list, however, that provide hope that Yelich could develop double-digit home run power:
    In 2004, 23-year-old Alex Rios hit .286 with one home run in 426 at-bats and a ground ball-to-fly ball ratio of 2.49. He's even built similarly to Yelich, tall and lean. He developed into a consistent 15- to 20-homer guy, three times topping 20.
    In 2003, Carl Crawford, in his age-21 season, had a ground ball-to-fly ball ratio of 2.23 while hitting five home runs. He's reached double digits in home runs seven times -- peaking at 19 -- plus a ton of triples. But note that he didn't hit as many grounders as Yelich.



    As far as older players goes, Jeter is an interesting comparison. Since 2002, he had a 3.00 GB/FB ratio in five seasons, but he maxed out at 15 homers in those years. When he hit 23 home runs in 2004, his GB/FB ratio was 1.47.

    Obviously, there are examples of players who added power as they matured. As one example take Kirby Puckett, who hit four home runs his first two seasons in the big leagues and then hit as many as 31 in a season. We don't have his exact batted-ball data in those early years, but Baseball-Reference.com does track groundouts and fly outs. Here's Puckett his first four years:

    1984 (0 home runs): 1.55
    1985 (4 home runs): 2.17
    1986 (31 home runs): 1.10
    1987 (28 home runs): 1.50

    Yelich's ratio in 2014 was 2.43.

    Does that mean he'll never develop power? I'm not going to say it won't happen. A positive sign is that in his 62-game rookie season in 2013 his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio was 4.58, so he did improve in 2014. He'll have to drop that total a lot more and also learn to the pull the ball when he does hit it in the air, otherwise he's just Eric Hosmer.

    Aside from that, the big positive is he's already a good player as he enters his age-23 season, with a sound approach at the plate and excellent defense. Even if he doesn't turn into a 20- to 25-homer player, he's going to create a lot of runs with high batting averages and excellent on-base percentages.
    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...-hit-for-power
    Originally posted by Madman81
    Most of the people in the world being dumb is not a requirement for you to be among their ranks.
    Need help? Questions? Concerns? Want to chat? PM me!

  • #2
    To add to the larger point of the piece , it really isn't even a question of whether Yelich has power -- he does. He ranked in the 77th percentile in average flyball distance last season at 289.1 feet. That is essentially identical to Adam Dunn, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Carter and Anthony Rizzo, among others. He hits the ball extremely hard and far when he does put it into the air. He just doesn't do it often.
    poop

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Bobbob1313 View Post
      To add to the larger point of the piece , it really isn't even a question of whether Yelich has power -- he does. He ranked in the 77th percentile in average flyball distance last season at 289.1 feet. That is essentially identical to Adam Dunn, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Carter and Anthony Rizzo, among others. He hits the ball extremely hard and far when he does put it into the air. He just doesn't do it often.
      Are you saying he needs to be given the reverse Willie Mays Hays treatment?

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      • #4
        Given that I can't shake the feeling that Hermida and LoMo were ruined by tinkering, I wouldn't want them trying to change his approach at all.
        poop

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Bobbob1313 View Post
          Given that I can't shake the feeling that Hermida and LoMo were ruined by tinkering, I wouldn't want them trying to change his approach at all.
          Always believed this as well.

          Comment


          • #6
            http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ers=0&sort=3,d

            2002-2014 with min 900 PA, showing GB%, ISO, OPS, wRC+, and WAR. Sorted by GB%.

            Definitely not great company to be in. Sort it by ascending GB% and you see a lot better offensive numbers.

            But you also got guys like Jacque Jones putting up a .175 ISO with a 56.9% GB rate.

            Jeter is a really good comp when you compare peripherals like BB/K, BABIP, ISO, batted ball data, and all that jazz, and he had a solid .154 ISO during his prime years (24-32).

            I'm not worried.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Bobbob1313 View Post
              Given that I can't shake the feeling that Hermida and LoMo were ruined by tinkering, I wouldn't want them trying to change his approach at all.
              Hermida I don't think was screwed by tinkering but LoMo I think was absolutely messed up by their insistence that he become more of a power hitter. I'm hoping that doesn't happen with Yelich and that they bat him 2, where he belongs, and not further down in the lineup like they did with LoMo.
              Originally posted by Madman81
              Most of the people in the world being dumb is not a requirement for you to be among their ranks.
              Need help? Questions? Concerns? Want to chat? PM me!

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Bobbob1313 View Post
                Given that I can't shake the feeling that Hermida and LoMo were ruined by tinkering, I wouldn't want them trying to change his approach at all.
                I think they were ruined because they sucked.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Except they maybe didn't. At the very least, both had as much talent as Yelich as hitters, and showed tremendous flashes.
                  --------------------
                  In terms of just hitting, Yelich may never have as good a season as Hermida did in 2007.
                  Last edited by Bobbob1313; 03-07-2015, 01:31 PM. Reason: Doublepost Merged
                  poop

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                  • #10
                    They also maybe did. We're not really basing this on anything other than the fact that they had stretches of being good. Which makes them not unlike countless others that just didn't live up to their high prospect status.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Valid View Post
                      I think they were ruined because they sucked.
                      Agreed. Neither really showed anything impressive for a full season. All clubs "tinker" (whatever that means, anyway) with their batters. Yelich doesn't need to hit for power to be successful because of his speed and smart base running capabilities. Plus with spacious Marlins park and his acute batting ability, he is a double waiting to happen on each AB.
                      STANTON

                      Serious fun! GET IT IN!

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by BigGameFish View Post
                        Agreed. Neither really showed anything impressive for a full season. All clubs "tinker" (whatever that means, anyway) with their batters. Yelich doesn't need to hit for power to be successful because of his speed and smart base running capabilities. Plus with spacious Marlins park and his acute batting ability, he is a double waiting to happen on each AB.
                        Hermida full season: .296/.369/.501, 18 HR 63 RBI, 125 OPS+
                        LoMo full season: .247/.330/.468, 23 HR 72 RBI, 116 OPS+
                        Yelich full season: .284/.362/.402, 9 HR 54 RBI, 112 OPS+

                        Those were all FULL seasons. You could make an argument the others were MORE impressive than Yelich (I wouldn't make that argument, but the argument could be made) as both had significantly higher slugging percentages and Hermida's BA was higher as well. So to say they never showed anything impressive for a full season isn't accurate. The problem is that they never showed it for more than the one full season.
                        Originally posted by Madman81
                        Most of the people in the world being dumb is not a requirement for you to be among their ranks.
                        Need help? Questions? Concerns? Want to chat? PM me!

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                        • #13
                          I think it's way too early to make an indictment on Yelich's status as a power-hitter considering that he's still 23 and very obviously still growing. Yelich is way more like Hermida than Morrison in my opinion due to their body types but Yelich clearly has a more fluid swing and approach that leads me to believe that he won't have the one good season and fizzle out.

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                          • #14
                            oh and to say he's a doubles machine, the others hit doubles at a higher rate in their first full season:

                            Yelich 30 2B in 660 PA (4.54%)
                            LoMo 25 2B in 525 PA (4.76%)
                            Hermida 32 2B in 429 PA (7.46%)

                            I mean, Yelich was tied for 64th in the league in 2Bs last season. Not saying he won't start hitting them at a higher rate but there's nothing that really warrants calling him a double waiting to happen thus far
                            Originally posted by Madman81
                            Most of the people in the world being dumb is not a requirement for you to be among their ranks.
                            Need help? Questions? Concerns? Want to chat? PM me!

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                            • #15
                              It really isn't about Yelich "filling out" or "growing." He's got power -- that's clear. He's got current, in-game, playable power. He hits the ball very hard and very far. He just doesn't do it very often. It's not an indictment, it's just who he is as a hitter.

                              And I hope they don't try to change that to generate more flyballs.
                              poop

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