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Giancarlo Stanton and Being Alone in the Lineup

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  • Giancarlo Stanton and Being Alone in the Lineup

    The heavyweight of the 818 is pissed. So said Giancarlo Stanton’s Twitter feed after most of his remaining brothers from what was still a pretty bash-less offense were taken away from him in the Marlins-Blue Jays swap.

    Lonely in the offense last year despite the presence of Jose Reyes and John Buck plus partial seasons of Omar Infante and Hanley Ramirez, Stanton became even lonelier after the trade. His extreme power in a poor lineup and a difficult home run ballpark for normal human beings will give him an outside shot at the highest percentage of a team’s home runs hit by one player in the expansion era.

    No, there’s no reason he should replicate Babe Ruth’s swatting 29 of the 1919 Red Sox’s 33 home runs. But the expansion era mark for non-strike years currently belongs to Mike Schmidt’s 1980 season, in which he hit 48 of the World Series champion Phillies’ 117 home runs. No player since the turn of the millennium has hit more than a third of his team’s home runs, while Albert Belle’s 1991 output of 35.4 percent of the Indians’ home runs was tops in the ‘90s. So breaking Schmidt’s mark is a long shot for Stanton despite the rather barren offense around him.

    Even with the now-departed Ramirez’s 14 home runs, Buck’s 12, Reyes’ 11 and Infante’s eight, and more notably, even with his sitting out 39 games of an injury-disturbed season, Stanton still hit the highest percentage of his team’s home runs of any team leader in 2012.



    Give him a full healthy season and a roster devoid of pop, and he will likely lead this chart this time next year by an enormous margin rather than the 1/100 of 1 percent by which he topped Cabrera.

    So the question becomes when you have one major home run threat in your lineup, where you put said threat. It’s actually a question that new Marlins skipper Mike Redmond answered in his press conference at the winter meetings.

    “I see him hitting fourth,” Redmond said, adding that Logan Morrison would likely bat fifth.

    “We're definitely going to need somebody to hit behind (Stanton) but more importantly, we're going to have to try to get guys on base in front of him and give him those opportunities to drive runners in.”

    And he’s right about that last part, but where are three guys on the rest of this roster who can get on base enough to keep Stanton down at fourth in the lineup with ~18 fewer plate appearances per year than batting him third?

    Juan Pierre almost surely will take one of the top-of-the-order spots because he’s Juan Pierre. With Redmond hinting at Rob Brantly and Adeiny Hechevarria hitting down in the order, that leaves two more top-of-the-order spots for Justin Ruggiano, Donovan Solano, and however they upgrade third base over the current situation of maybe Todd Zeile.

    This will be the key to salvaging anything from this offense, but don’t be stunned if Stanton moves up should it become a wasteland.

    The statistical liturgy of The Book argued well that a team’s best hitter should bat second or fourth rather than third, basically to avoid the two-out, nobody-on situations that come with a no. 3 hitter where singles, doubles, and walks are often wasted. However, if there is one type of “best hitter” who should be a decent fit at no. 3, it would be Stanton, especially in easier home run environments on the road.

    Two outs, nobody on is a time for a home run when an inside-the-park hit isn’t all that helpful and an out isn’t all that harmful—easily the least negative of any of the run/out situations, so if there were ever a hitter who could be given those 18 extra plate appearances, it might be the slugger. Stanton finished one plate appearance short of qualifying for rate stats titles last year, but if he had made the list, his on-base percentage would have been in the bottom two percent among modern-era players who slugged at least .600 that season.

    Batting Stanton fourth is a nod to our image of a “cleanup” hitter as it was envisioned in our schoolyard days and as it works out on many differently constructed teams.

    But last year, he hit 12 home runs from that batting order position. Of the 12, 11 were solo shots and one came with a man on first base.

    It might only get lonelier.

    ***

    Deleted scenes from the home run distribution research:

    The nine highest percentages of a team’s home run total in a single season belong to just three players:
    Mike Schmidt: 1981 (strike year), 1980, 1974 and 1979 Phillies
    Jimmy Wynn: 1967 and 1968 Astros
    Dave Kingman: 1978 Cubs and 1981 and 1982 Mets

    Nate Colbert (1972 Padres) and Jack Clark (1987 Cardinals) were next. Naturally, the top 17 spots are all National Leaguers, and Belle’s 1991 season mentioned above is tops for teams with a DH.

    Even with his record-setting year, Barry Bonds had enough help to stay off the top of this list. Here are the four players this century who have hit at least 30 percent of their team’s home runs in a season.
    Matt Kemp, 2011 Dodgers: 39/117=33.3%
    Sammy Sosa, 2001 Cubs: 64/194=33.0%
    Barry Bonds, 2001 Giants: 73/235=31.1%
    Richie Sexson, 2005 Mariners: 39/130=30.0%

    The 2001 Orioles were the only team in the modern era (1901-present) with no player even hitting 1/9th of his team’s home runs. Jay Gibbons and Chris Richard led the team with 15 apiece, and the team hit 136, with Jeff Conine and Cal Ripken Jr. each hitting 14, Tony Batista 12, and David Segui 10.
    c/o baseballprospectus.com

    3 Marlins or former Marlins in that chart

  • #2
    The first hitter gets the most at-bats; I say we hit him first.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Erick View Post
      The first hitter gets the most at-bats; I say we hit him first.
      Makes sense with how much he will be pitched around this year.

      Comment


      • #4
        Its gonna be

        Pierre
        Solano
        Ruggiano
        Stanton
        Morrison
        Kouzmanoff
        Brantly
        Hechavarria

        Morrison might be seeing real good pitches all year with that kind of lineup protection.

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        • #5
          What will be an opposing teams motivation to give Stanton anything to hit (barring a total 180 by LoLo)?

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          • #6
            I assume Hechavarria is batting eighth because he doesn't get on base enough, correct?
            LHP Chad James-Jupiter Hammerheads-

            5-15 3.80 ERA (27 starts) 149.1IP 173H 63ER 51BB 124K

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Namaste View Post
              What will be an opposing teams motivation to give Stanton anything to hit (barring a total 180 by LoLo)?
              We'll be down by 6 for most of the season, so they'll be like fuck it.
              --------------------
              Originally posted by Miamarlin21 View Post
              I assume Hechavarria is batting eighth because he doesn't get on base enough, correct?
              Because he's the worst hitter on the team.
              Last edited by Mainge; 12-13-2012, 09:21 AM. Reason: Doublepost Merged

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              • #8
                I don't see how anyone can say Hechavarria is the worst hitter in the lineup when it includes Solano. They have the same career OBP in the minors. Anyone who thinks Solano is going to sustain what he did in last year is delusional; he had a very inflated BABIP. There is no guarantee Hechavarria is going to be the worst hitter next year.

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                • #9
                  We also have Kevin Kouzmanoff in our lineup...

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                  • #10
                    I forgot about Solano.

                    ehe our offense is going to be sooo bad during the 6 weeks Stanton misses with whatever knee injury he's afflicted with this season.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by jay576 View Post
                      I don't see how anyone can say Hechavarria is the worst hitter in the lineup when it includes Solano. They have the same career OBP in the minors. Anyone who thinks Solano is going to sustain what he did in last year is delusional; he had a very inflated BABIP. There is no guarantee Hechavarria is going to be the worst hitter next year.
                      while that very well may be the case, the fact is that Solano came up to the bigs last year and did more than just hold his own

                      so at this point, Solano is clearly the better hitter over Hechavarria

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                      • #12
                        While he won't sustain that .BABIP because he's just not that good, it's worth noting that it was high because Solano hit the ball really well last year. 28.3 LD%.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Erick View Post
                          While he won't sustain that .BABIP because he's just not that good, it's worth noting that it was high because Solano hit the ball really well last year. 28.3 LD%.
                          He performed better last year than he ever was in the minors. Him and Hechavarria should be expected to be at the same production level. Because of Solano's performance last year I would have him bat earlier in the lineup but they should be looked at with the same expectations with the bat.

                          The lineup is all sorts of bad with the obvious exception of Stanton. To say anyone is the worst hitter on the team there should be significant lower expectations from that player than the rest which there aren't.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by jay576 View Post
                            He performed better last year than he ever was in the minors. Him and Hechavarria should be expected to be at the same production level. Because of Solano's performance last year I would have him bat earlier in the lineup but they should be looked at with the same expectations with the bat.

                            The lineup is all sorts of bad with the obvious exception of Stanton. To say anyone is the worst hitter on the team there should be significant lower expectations from that player than the rest which there aren't.
                            I agree; I was just pointing out that he hit the ball hard last year. But yeah, I expect him to be mediocre, at best, in '13.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              It's not going to really matter when 4 guys in the starting lineup should not be starters. And that's not including Morrison and Brantly who get to start just because they are young, and Ruggiano because he had an out of nowhere year.

                              Very easily could be Stanton and 7 replacement level.

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