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A Word of Warning: Long Term Contracts

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  • A Word of Warning: Long Term Contracts

    Something that I see an abundance of is long term contracts. Remember this:

    1) Players do not age gracefully in this game. It is a sharp downward slope once a player hits 30. This ESPECIALLY goes for defense (We've been talking about adding something to offset this, and this also serves as a reminder to PWG about it). Signing ANYONE to huge money for several years after they turn 30 is not a good idea. Remember: You can always resign a player once his contract runs out - If he's asking for 15m, well, he'll still be asking for 15m down the road, you're not getting a bargain. Even if they're asking for a ton of years, that doesn't mean you have to give them that many years.

    To give an example (NOT picking at all), two contracts were handed out this season to keep MVP-caliber players: Grady Sizemore and Joe Mauer. Sizemore signed for two years, Mauer for seven, both for a similar yearly salary. Sizemore covers his 28-29 seasons, Mauer his 28-34 seasons.

    In Sizemore's case, if after two years he continues to perform at this level, he can be re-signed for similar value and a similar contract. And should he decline, he'd be easy to move because he's not a big commitment.

    In Mauer's case, it likely won't be too big of a deal because of just how amazing Mauer is, but when he starts to decline those last 4 years (and it's normally a very quick, steep decline in this game), he likely won't be worth what he's making and he'll be incredibly hard to move.

    On top of which, remember: Every player can be neg dev'd. Imagine if, in the next sim, both Sizemore and Mauer got neg'd into oblivion. Sizemore's contract would not be an issue (in fact, he could just be released to open up the money for next year), but Mauer's would bog down his franchise for years and years.

    So remember, do not just give out big contracts because of how the player is currently performing. Andruw Jones is certainly a current of example of just how wrong it can go, or Josh Beckett.

    2) It's almost entirely pointless to give a player a long term deal before his year 4/5 arbitrations. It is ESPECIALLY pointless pre-arbitration. This is not like in real life where players will take reduced deals, in fact it's the exact opposite: They're looking for around barely under what they would ask on the open market. Vast majority of the time, the player will make less in arbitration than he will if you sign him. So signing him not only costs you more money, but like talked above, it then solidifies that player a contract even though so much can go wrong.

    Year 4/5 is different because, even though you will pay more then they'll make in arbitration, you can get reduced value for free agent years. To give example:

    Jeremy Bomberman - After making 6m first year arb and 6.5m second year arb, he'd have made around 8m third year arb but would be asking for about ~13-15m to sign to keep him from becoming a free agent. So I gave him a 3 year/30m contract: I payed more for the third arbitration year, but I get two reduced free agent years (Getting more than 2-3 years of reduced free agent years is really rare)

    Zach Greinke is also an example.






    So to recap:

    Long term deals that cover age 30+ seasons = bad idea
    Signing a player before he's close to free agency = normally bad idea
    Signing a player to a long term deal before he's close to free agency = really bad idea
    Last edited by nny; 09-19-2010, 05:50 AM.

  • #2
    I'll add to this, but this is great info that I hope more people look into and take into consideration.

    Re: Contracts -

    If you're going to do a 4-5 year contract for some reason, think logically. The player may ASK for a heavily backloaded contract, but like Nny said, players don't age particularly gracefully so why not FRONT load it. 90% of the time they take it, players are only concerned about the per year value, for the most part.

    Also, don't be afraid to use options in the last year. We only banned nefarious options. Miguel Cabrera's contract is a good example of this.

    Good luck everyone!

    Please if there are any questions or comments, go for it.
    CSBC Commish

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    • #3
      If I remember correctly, Sizemore wanted 4 years and about 2M more per season that he got.
      You know what the difference between Jeremy Lin and Tim Tebow is?... Jeremy Lin is probably a good Quarter Back.

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      • #4
        Grady is an asshole. He doesn't practice enough vs. lefties.
        This is a Dolphins town, though.

        "Fuck, what've they done?'' --Ozzie Guillen

        I am dead set against free agency, it can ruin baseball. --- George Steinbrenner

        2010 SoFlaMarlins Fantasy Baseball Champion
        Edmonton Ice Bats
        2007 Teal League Wildcard
        2008 Teal League Wildcard

        2009 Teal League Wildcard
        2010 Teal League Wildcard
        2011 Teal League West Division Winner

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