Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

My Pre-Season Marlin Preview

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • My Pre-Season Marlin Preview

    Some former Marlin stars are suddenly missing, but not because of their salaries. It was contracts to Prado, Volquez, Ziegler, Tazawa and Chen that sunk the ship. Those total about $55 million for 2018 alone – that’s right, more than Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich and Gordon combined. All for players that don’t matter a bit and, frankly, never figured to matter to those outside the team’s front office.

    The starting pitching staff returns a cast of proven mediocrity (Straily and Urena), broken promise (Nicolino, Conley, and of course Chen, who actually seems to be broken), and some looming talent. With volumes of statistical data available these days, it’s easy to lose track of the one stat that tells the entire story: WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitched). No matter how quick the fastball, how crisp the slider, the bottom line is limiting the number of hitters who reach base. Low WHIP and success align perfectly. Really good pitchers keep it under 1.25. Top pitchers get it much lower. Thing is, if a pitcher can’t dominate with a low WHIP number in the minors, they certainly can’t be expected to do it in the majors. With that in mind, at least three credible rotation guys stand out, all mature arms. Over nearly 100 innings in AAA last season, Caleb Smith went 9-1 with a 1.05 WHIP. The lefty, acquired from the Yankees, was his team’s top starter. Another lefty, Dillon Peters, put up a 1.00 WHIP over two minor league seasons before getting six starts for the Marlins in September. Results were mixed, but his first and last starts were outstanding, as in no runs over 12 1/3 innings. Trevor Richards, a righty, was the farm’s Pitcher of the Year. In 146 innings split between A+ and AA, his WHIP stood at 1.03. A fourth farmhand seems just a couple months of AA ball away. Ben Meyer tossed 111 innings, mostly for Jupiter, with a ridiculous .93 WHIP. He is recognized as the top control artist in the organization. All four of these future rookies strike out at least a hitter an inning. While the Miami organization has announced that reliever Jarlin Garcia will be shifted to a starting role, his numbers as a starter in the minors don’t support the move.

    Future hopefuls, acquired in trades, should form an interesting AA Jacksonville rotation (along with Meyer). Nick Niedert, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, and Jordan Yamamoto will be battling to produce the lowest WHIP number.

    The bullpen features somewhat dependable Drew Steckenrider and Kyle Barraclough, late-inning fireballers with marginal control. Stumbling incumbents Ziegler and Tazawa will return, solely in the hope that they can improve enough to draw trade interest. With Miami committed to a 13-man staff, that will leave openings for four of Nick Wittgren, Brian Ellington, Odrisamer Despaigne, Adam Conley, Chris O’Grady, Rule-Five signees Elieser Hernandez and Brett Graves, and either Caleb Smith or Garcia. Reinforcements, fortunately, are not far off. Andy Beltre, Merandy Gonzalez, Marcus Crescentini and others excelled in A+ ball last season.

    The offense, minus four starters from last season, features two reliable returnees. Justin Bour is a healthy full-season away from being a star. Without injury, he projects as 40 HR/120 RBI in the clean-up spot. JT Realmuto is on the verge of becoming baseball’s best catcher. If he can lift his Marlin Park hitting marks to anywhere near his road totals, that’s a done deal. Starlin Castro is a solid pro who should produce hitting third in the order. While the club has him penciled in at 2B, I surmise that there will be discussion of moving him to SS. While Castro may not be a plus glove at short, he is certainly a double plus hitter compared to Riddle or Rojas, the only other options. A Castro/Dietrich MI combo represents a huge offensive upgrade, which is likely to be needed. Instead, Mattingly has introduced Dietrich as his Opening Day left fielder. That’s a curious decision. If defense is valued so highly that Castro stays at second, what in the world is Dietrich doing in the OF? Brinson, Lee and Sierra are great defensive talents and rookies who will only grow with experience. If one thing will breed excitement at Marlin games this season, it will be the blazing speed of those three. Third base belongs to Prado for the same reason Ziegler and Tazawa will be in the pen – the team is stuck with him. Brian Anderson will have to begin the season in AAA, awaiting Prado’s next pulled muscle.

    Given the current intention to play Rojas and Dietrich regularly, the four reserve roles will likely belong to Telis and three of Riddle, Sierra, Lee, and Garrett Cooper. Cooper, acquired from the Yankees along with Caleb Smith, had a huge AAA season last year. He is a first baseman/corner OF with questionable skills at the latter.

    Prediction: Only 99 losses.

  • #2
    The AA Rotation will be Neidert/Merandy/Lopez/Yamamoto/Poteet. No clue what they do with Ben Meyer. Gonna be interested what they do with alot of guys-whole new decision makers means some guys will become SP and others RP based on what they see them as

    Alcantara and Gallen will be in AAA with Richards and probably Peters(1st month)

    DD is in the OF because they have 1B/2B/3B set and he got so muscled up that Mattingly likes him in LF

    Wouldnt be surprised to see the bench as Wallach/Van Slyke/Rojas/Cooper. Alot of it will have to do with ST

    Telis/Nicolino/Graves/Elieser all have to make the team or we lose them
    Last edited by tjfla; 02-17-2018, 01:00 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Poteet to AA? He sure didn't pass the Jupiter challenge. I'd like to see Gallen do more at the AA level. I'm reading that Merandy's motion is too violent to stick as a starter. He sure did well in Jupiter, despite paucity of K's.
      Last edited by Lee Stone; 02-17-2018, 01:29 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Lee Stone View Post
        Poteet to AA? He sure didn't pass the Jupiter challenge. I'm reading that Merandy's motion is too violent to stick as a starter. He sure did well in Jupiter, despite paucity of K's.
        Agreed I think Merandy should be a closer(AJ Ramos lite) but they will keep him as a SP until he looks bad. Meyer,Merandy,Brigham,Buckelew,Cavaniero,Farnworth should all be in the pen

        Poteet actually looked solid before the injury is 23 and Jupiter has tons of SP right now with Guzman,Clark,Miller,Beggs,Dugger,Duval,Sam Perez,Kolek?

        Gallen do more? He pitched 4 games in AAA LY and looked good

        The "rotations" are hard to tell right now because no one knows what Denbo is gonna do with guys. Del Piano was all over the map-sign 27 yr olds for GBoro instead of calling up a 21 yr old from Extended ST/move guys between RP and SP every 2 weeks
        Last edited by tjfla; 02-17-2018, 01:40 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Typo! You typed in "Kolek."

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Lee Stone View Post
            Typo! You typed in "Kolek."
            Typo?

            He has to pitch somewhere next year. Arm is healthy just can't throw a strike. Logic says they keep him close and put him in Jupiter. I would throw him in the Jupiter pen and see how he does-Early reports are however same as LY(Throws 97 but can't find the plate and still no secondary pitch)
            Last edited by tjfla; 02-17-2018, 01:48 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Why Meyer to the pen? He was the most efficient starter in the entire Florida State League.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Lee Stone View Post
                Why Meyer to the pen? He was the most efficient starter in the entire Florida State League.
                I don't know where Meyer will end up but rather have another Steckenrider at 6'5 200lbs throwing 95 in 2019 then another guy fighting to be #5 SP in 2 years

                He was a RP at first then looked great as a SP in FSL. The the new FO sent him to the AFL and was back in the pen.

                - - - - - - - - - -

                2020 COULD look like this
                SP
                ?
                Alcantara
                Garcia
                Peters
                Gallen/Neidert/Richards

                RP
                Yamamoto
                Wittgren
                Steckenrider
                Merandy
                Guzman


                With Braxton Garrett/Rogers/#13 Pick in AA with 40 million to spend on SP/SS/C
                Last edited by tjfla; 02-17-2018, 02:27 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Where's the love for Caleb Smith? None of your 2020 starters, save maybe Peters, will ever put together a AAA season like he did last year.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by tjfla View Post
                    The AA Rotation will be Neidert/Merandy/Lopez/Yamamoto/Poteet. No clue what they do with Ben Meyer. Gonna be interested what they do with alot of guys-whole new decision makers means some guys will become SP and others RP based on what they see them as

                    Alcantara and Gallen will be in AAA with Richards and probably Peters(1st month)

                    DD is in the OF because they have 1B/2B/3B set and he got so muscled up that Mattingly likes him in LF

                    Wouldnt be surprised to see the bench as Wallach/Van Slyke/Rojas/Cooper. Alot of it will have to do with ST

                    Telis/Nicolino/Graves/Elieser all have to make the team or we lose them
                    Will be nice to check the minor league box scores and actually have legit SP prospects starting every night, at least in the upper minors.

                    - - - - - - - - - -

                    Originally posted by Lee Stone View Post
                    Where's the love for Caleb Smith? None of your 2020 starters, save maybe Peters, will ever put together a AAA season like he did last year.
                    He was also 26 and doesnt have lights out stuff. He might be able to max out as a back of the rotation guy for a few years like Koehler. I think he has a little potential in that role. I definitely think he'll be in the rotation to start the year.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Whoa, fish16! We have to amend our definition of lights-out stuff when we talk about our Marlins. Baby steps. Let's have a staff that doesn't lead the majors in walks, at least for starters (okay, we walked five less than the Mets). That was my thinking in discussing the importance of WHIP. This year's resolution: cut way back on the walks. Nothing will speed up a game more than that.

                      Let's compare our pitching to our division-leading Gnats. The Marlins issued 142 walks more than they did. The consequences? We gave up 137 more earned runs. It's all about walks! Make them go away and you win a bunch of games. When you read about Sandy Alcantara having front of the rotation stuff, just shake your head. Right now, he walks too many batters to pitch in the bigs.
                      Last edited by Lee Stone; 02-17-2018, 04:12 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Lee Stone View Post
                        Whoa, fish16! We have to amend our definition of lights-out stuff when we talk about our Marlins. Baby steps. Let's have a staff that doesn't lead the majors in walks, at least for starters (okay, we walked five less than the Mets). That was my thinking in discussing the importance of WHIP. This year's resolution: cut way back on the walks. Nothing will speed up a game more than that.

                        Let's compare our pitching to our division-leading Gnats. The Marlins issued 142 walks more than they did. The consequences? We gave up 137 more earned runs. It's all about walks! Make them go away and you win a bunch of games.
                        I agree with you on WHIP. I think its one of the more telling indicators as to how good a pitcher really is despite its relative simplicity. Its one of the stats i look closest at for relievers especially because they moreso than starters can have deceiving ERA's.

                        As far as lights out stuff though it is still pretty important. Not walking people is important, but not walking people in combination with being able to strike a lot of guys out is pretty important. Not really saying anything we dont already know though. Denbo and Hill have done a good job of adding guys who dont walk a lot of people in combination with guys who have really good stuff though. The guys with lights out stuff have to develop some better control though, and I think Guzman will, but alcantara scares me as a possible Eovaldi type guy who has the stuff but for some reason doesnt strike out as many guys as he should and walks to many people. We'll see what happens this year.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Eovaldi is a great comp to Alcantara. He threw hard, but led the league in base hits allowed. Hard but straight.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Lee Stone View Post
                            Eovaldi is a great comp to Alcantara. He threw hard, but led the league in base hits allowed. Hard but straight.
                            I think results wise they look similar and that scares me a little bit which is why i wanted the safer guy in Flaherty in that deal, but I think he is way more highly valued in the scouting community than Eovaldi ever was. Also, Alcantara's numbers havent been dominant in the minors, but they havent been nearly as bad as theyve been made out to be. 3.95 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and nearly a K per inning. And he's been young/the appropriate age for every level he's been to. I dont think he could ever be a number 1, but I see him as a decent chance of being a number 2 with a number 3 as the most likely result, which isnt terrible.

                            - - - - - - - - - -

                            I hope they give him the entire year in New Orleans, or at the very least until the deadline.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Aaah, the Ozuna trade. Heartbreaker. He had to be a coveted addition to lots of teams, yet we never heard even a rumor of another offer. The talks should have started with Alex Reyes. Even coming off TJS, he was worth the risk. Then Luke Weaver. Then Flaherty. If we took Alcantara, he should have been paired with C Carson Kelly. Sierra? We already had better versions in Braxton Lee and Brian Miller. Zac Gallen? I think we had comparable/better options in our own system. I hope to be proven wrong, but that deal stands as a disaster in my mind. Loved the Yelich trade though.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X