May Game Thread

[tjfla]

Looking at minor league numbers, what in the world is austin dean still doing in AAA given our OF?

Learning to play 1B. 2020 he will be taking Cooper's job and the 1B/Corner OF RHB

They love the bat the issue with Austin Dean is the defense. He isnt great in the OF but never played 1B(love the old FO-instead of playing him there they would sign some 29 yr old minor league FA) so they are giving him reps.

Before anyone says he should just learn in the majors-remember they wanna give Walker/Prado AB's till July. Dean in AAA lets him learn and get AB's still till then

[lou]

Learning to play 1B. 2020 he will be taking Cooper's job and the 1B/Corner OF RHB

They love the bat the issue with Austin Dean is the defense. He isnt great in the OF but never played 1B(love the old FO-instead of playing him there they would sign some 29 yr old minor league FA) so they are giving him reps.

Before anyone says he should just learn in the majors-remember they wanna give Walker/Prado AB's till July. Dean in AAA lets him learn and get AB's still till then

What supplemental draft picks do they get next year. I ask, as I figured out the insane draft pick compensation scheme this morning and want to know what they are giving up if they do act like a real team and sign something like Rendon and Didi.

Basically, they would be giving up their "third" pick for Rendon, and I believe they are getting a 1A supplemental so Rendon costs them their 2nd rounder, and if Didi were to get a QA (debatable), they'd then lose their next pick. Do they have a supplemental in round 2 or is it their 3rd?

[tjfla]

What supplemental draft picks do they get next year. I ask, as I figured out the insane draft pick compensation scheme this morning and want to know what they are giving up if they do act like a real team and sign something like Rendon and Didi.

Basically, they would be giving up their "third" pick for Rendon, and I believe they are getting a 1A supplemental so Rendon costs them their 2nd rounder, and if Didi were to get a QA (debatable), they'd then lose their next pick. Do they have a supplemental in round 2 or is it their 3rd?

Day 1 Picks for 2020

#1(Top 3)-Protected
#2(40?)
#2S

Then Top 3 Pick on Day 2(which can be very very valuable if play cards right). Valuable in sense that if they save 2 million or so on Rd 1 pick they could get spend that on this pick on some HS guy who wants crazy cash-call his people after Day 1 and work a deal out.

I have no clue about the compensation stuff since they changed it.(Length/Dollar Amount/Draft spot all factor in now) But I know our #1 Pick is protected no matter what and we get a Rd 2 Supplemental Pick in 2020

[lou]

Day 1 Picks for 2020

#1(Top 3)-Protected
#2(40?)
#2S

I have no clue about the compensation stuff since they changed it.(Length/Dollar Amount/Draft spot all factor in now) But I know our #1 Pick is protected no matter what and we get a Rd 2 Supplemental Pick in 2020

It's basically this. FA must have received a qualifying offer.

Revenue Sharing team: Gives up 3rd highest pick
Revenue Contributing team: Gives up 2nd highest pick
Rev Contributing + in Luxury tax: Gives up 2nd and 5th highest picks, plus losing some IFA money.

So the Marlins would lose 3rd highest pick in 2020 draft if they sign Rendon (sure fire QO). Sounds like pick 70ish.

So that's a non-issue to me. No reason to not try and Jayson Werth this a year early. Basically, I was trying to figure out if they would lose their 1 or basically late 1 (as their second rounder is super high). But they wouldn't.

[tjfla]

It's basically this. FA must have received a qualifying offer.

Revenue Sharing team: Gives up 3rd highest pick
Revenue Contributing team: Gives up 2nd highest pick
Rev Contributing + in Luxury tax: Gives up 2nd and 5th highest picks, plus losing some IFA money.

So the Marlins would lose 3rd highest pick in 2020 draft if they sign Rendon (sure fire QO). Sounds like pick 70ish.

So that's a non-issue to me. No reason to not try and Jayson Werth this a year early. Basically, I was trying to figure out if they would lose their 1 or basically late 1 (as their second rounder is super high). But they wouldn't.

If true they would lose the Rd 2 Supplemental Pick in 2020. Then in 2021 they have Rd 1 Pick,Rd 1S Pick and Rd 2 Pick-all could be in Top 45 like this year

Ya would be around #70 but we would have #1,#42,#80. We could always trade for another pick too

[lou]

If true they would lose the Rd 2 Supplemental Pick in 2020. Then in 2021 they have Rd 1 Pick,Rd 1S Pick and Rd 2 Pick-all could be in Top 45 like this year

This is interesting. SO if they sign a major FA in 2020, they give up a worse draft pick (2S) than if they wait until 2021 (2).

[tjfla]

This is interesting. SO if they sign a major FA in 2020, they give up a worse draft pick (2S) than if they wait until 2021 (2).

If its how u said then YES. 2020 would cost #70-75 and 2021 would cost #40-45.

Rendon,Castellanos,Ozuna,Didi for #70(Bat)
Bauer,James Paxton or Robbie Ray for #40(SP)
Lindor OR Correa for #70(SS)

Thats IF none are traded going into FA year. They just need to get as much talent than trade(Arms/OF) for Lindor

[lou]

If its how u said then YES. 2020 would cost #70-75 and 2021 would cost #40-45.

Rendon,Castellanos,Ozuna,Didi for #70(Bat)
Bauer,James Paxton or Robbie Ray for #40(SP)
Lindor OR Correa for #70(SS)

Thats IF none are traded going into FA year. They just need to get as much talent than trade(Arms/OF) for Lindor

I found a better primer. I feel I am right here - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...fer-rules.html

But I need to tweak above. The second scenario you lose IFA too:

Revenue Sharing team: Gives up 3rd highest pick
Revenue Contributing team: Gives up 2nd highest pick +$500k IFA money
Rev Contributing + in Luxury tax: Gives up 2nd and 5th highest picks, plus losing $1mil IFA money

There are some other conditions, but I think that generally works.

Marlins clearly are revenue sharing team for the next few years minimum.

[tjfla]

I found a better primer. I feel I am right here - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...fer-rules.html

But I need to tweak above. The second scenario you lose IFA too:

Revenue Sharing team: Gives up 3rd highest pick
Revenue Contributing team: Gives up 2nd highest pick +$500k IFA money
Rev Contributing + in Luxury tax: Gives up 2nd and 5th highest picks, plus losing $1mil IFA money

There are some other conditions, but I think that generally works.

Marlins clearly are revenue sharing team for the next few years minimum.

Yep here is what applies to us

If the signing team received revenue sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold in the previous season, the team only has to surrender its third-highest pick in the next draft. If this team signed more than one QO free agent, it would give up its fourth-highest pick for the second signing, fifth-highest pick for a third signing, etc.

[lou]

If its how u said then YES. 2020 would cost #70-75 and 2021 would cost #40-45.

Rendon,Castellanos,Ozuna,Didi for #70(Bat)
Bauer,James Paxton or Robbie Ray for #40(SP)
Lindor OR Correa for #70(SS)

Thats IF none are traded going into FA year. They just need to get as much talent than trade(Arms/OF) for Lindor

Given that the 2021 picks will be "better," it makes even more sense to go for it in 2020 free agency AND sign two of them the same year, as then the pick just goes downstream and it becomes a third rounder. And who cares about that.

Rendon and Didi in 2020 makes too much sense, and then deal with what to do with the rest of the money in 2021. At that point, it may make sense to only target guys not receiving QA. Thats a long ways away.

[tjfla]

Just remember Chen costs 22 million in 2020

Would be all for Rendon getting crazy offer to play 3B in 2020. Move BA to RF. Costs pick #70 and probably still have 25 Million to spend in FA for 2021

2021
C Alfaro
1B BA
2B Diaz
SS Devers if ready?
3B Rendon
LF Harrison
CF VV
RF Bleday

Staff-Sixto,Caleb,Pablo,Sandy,Richards,Gallen,Neidert,FA

Hearing they think both Vaughn or Bleday will be ready by 2021(OD? June?)

Devers
VV
Rendon
Bleday
BA
Alfaro
Harrison
Diaz

[rmc523]

Something to consider, though, is, how much "Marlins tax" do we have to pay to sign guys? How much above and beyond other offers do we need to be to convince guys to sign with us?

[tjfla]

Something to consider, though, is, how much "Marlins tax" do we have to pay to sign guys? How much above and beyond other offers do we need to be to convince guys to sign with us?

We are gonna have to spend cash the bigger question is do they wanna be here? Like we saw with Machado it took him all winter to realize SD wasnt that bad. Dallas Keuchel and Kimbrel had solid offers from TB,Minnesota but both want those offers from Atlanta,Boston,NYY which they didnt get. Funny thing is now they are cool with Minnesota and TB on 1 yr deals

The new thing for FA is they wanna get paid but by contenders ONLY

[rmc523]

We are gonna have to spend cash the bigger question is do they wanna be here? Like we saw with Machado it took him all winter to realize SD wasnt that bad. Dallas Keuchel and Kimbrel had solid offers from TB,Minnesota but both want those offers from Atlanta,Boston,NYY which they didnt get. Funny thing is now they are cool with Minnesota and TB on 1 yr deals

The new thing for FA is they wanna get paid but by contenders ONLY

That's what I'm saying. We can talk all day here about signing Rendon, etc. But we could throw all our payroll at a guy, but that doesn't mean they'll want to sign here.

[lou]

Something to consider, though, is, how much "Marlins tax" do we have to pay to sign guys? How much above and beyond other offers do we need to be to convince guys to sign with us?

Two thoughts here:

1 - 4 year opt out
2 - Pay him anything under $30/year. Yea, I would give him something like 7/$200. They have so many club controlled options, they can afford this and it won't matter that much because he is awesome and still worth it.

He is going to post three 6 WAR years in a row unless he gets hurt this year. I think he's worth whatever he'll sign for, for ages 29-35. His hit tool is going to hold up, and you can just shift him to 1B the last few years if need be. It's as low risk of a bat as one could hope for.

Give him the money and the opt out. Blow everyone away.

- - - - - - - - - -

That's what I'm saying. We can talk all day here about signing Rendon, etc. But we could throw all our payroll at a guy, but that doesn't mean they'll want to sign here.

Yep, which is why you sign Didi in conjunction, and hopefully by October, the front office can point to Smith, Pablo, Sixto, Gallen, Anderson, Alfaro, and some of Diaz/Monte/VVM/Brinson/etc. as a good core