2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[Nick]

Oh really?? Haha ok my reading comprehension must be terrible. All I’ve understood here (and on Twitter) is that the Marlins are doing nothing, will do nothing and 2024 will be a step backwards from 2023.

I mean they have done nothing so far. That is a fact. It's February, players are about to report to camp.

Bendix could surprise us with a trade that changes everything who knows and makes us a playoff contender again, but I'm convinced that no significant change in the payroll will happen. It's a roster that's not far off from playoff contention even without Sandy, I think that's why there's the frustration that they haven't done anything to help it.

[lou]

Oh really?? Haha ok my reading comprehension must be terrible. All I’ve understood here (and on Twitter) is that the Marlins are doing nothing, will do nothing and 2024 will be a step backwards from 2023.

I mean at present, these are true, TBD but likely will do nothing of material value, and extremely likely backwards because of the foregoing. Because of mainly shitty ownership operating sub $90m payrolls. What Nick said. Frustration they are pretty close and doing nothing. I really want you to get a victory lap with Eury going full 4+ WAR Fernandez, Cabrera takes a Luzardo step forward, Edwards/Brujan combine for over a 3+ WAR, DLC hits 25 bombs and learns to be acceptably bad defensively, Rogers stays healthy and is more 2021, and Scott/Nardi/Puk/Weathers combine for 5+ WAR as the best lefty pen in baseball, but this is the same thing as last year - everything has gotta go right to just get a wild card berth. They got the 1 run luck to do that last year, but banking on any kind of repeat like that is a lot.

At a sub $90m payroll where $25m of that payroll is not contributing (Sandy, Garcia, Barnes, Cueto). It's really a $65m on the field team.

[Namaste]

Jazz lost his arb hearing

[lou]

Marlins beat Jazz in arbitration, save $300k. (It was the right organizational move and will save them over $1m the next two years so this doesn't fall under cheap to a fault to me).

Jazz probably wouldn't accept a buy out right now TBH and will bet on himself to drop the year we all dream of. That's probably worth an extra $30-40m in guarantees if he does it.

No excuses for Luzardo and Arraez though. Maybe they are waiting for the Arraez ruling to set an extension price (laugh track).

[rmc523]

Marlins beat Jazz in arbitration, save $300k. (It was the right organizational move and will save them over $1m the next two years so this doesn't fall under cheap to a fault to me).

Jazz probably wouldn't accept a buy out right now TBH and will bet on himself to drop the year we all dream of. That's probably worth an extra $30-40m in guarantees if he does it.

No excuses for Luzardo and Arraez though. Maybe they are waiting for the Arraez ruling to set an extension price (laugh track).

Please. This is just 300k staying in Bruce’s pocket. It’s not being reallocated.

[Nick]

Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to Milwaukee for Corbin Burnes.

So there goes that possibility.

[fish16]

that is not a ton for Corbin Burnes. I get he's a free agent after this year but he's also one of the top 5 or so pitchers in baseball. Surprised it didnt cost them one of their top 3-4 guys.

[lou]

Please. This is just 300k staying in Bruce’s pocket. It’s not being reallocated.

It has nothing to do with that, it scales up for Arb2/3. It's $300k, but probably over $2m if Jazz is "good" the next two years. Every franchise in baseball would opt for this cost saving, with probably half splitting in the middle at $2.75m or something to avoid the hassle. These guys suck, but not because of this

[lou]

Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to Milwaukee for Corbin Burnes.

So there goes that possibility.

Blow them away for Adames and Williams leading with Noble. Sign Adames for 6 years. Everything is forgiven and life is great.

[lou]

that is not a ton for Corbin Burnes. I get he's a free agent after this year but he's also one of the top 5 or so pitchers in baseball. Surprised it didnt cost them one of their top 3-4 guys.

Only 1 year of control and a comp pick in 30s also going to Milwaukee. So three pretty prominent things here. That's a lot for 1 year of Burnes. It's a good deal all around for me.

[fish16]

willy adames is a career .759 OPS with a .320 OBP plus 27% K rate hitter coming off a .717 OPS season. He is not worth a long term, 20 + million 6 year deal to a team like the marlins. Id be all for him if we can get him dirt cheap given his FA status but i wouldnt pay him long term.

[lou]

willy adames is a career .759 OPS with a .320 OBP plus 27% K rate hitter coming off a .717 OPS season. He is not worth a long term, 20 + million 6 year deal to a team like the marlins. Id be all for him if we can get him dirt cheap given his FA status but i wouldnt pay him long term.

.759 OPS is a top 8ish offensive SS in baseball. He's a top 5 defender at the position in the league. 28 years old. 3.3, 4.6, 3.4 WAR seasons in a row. Had a .259 BABIP last year. He's perfect based on the Marlins other personnel and control years. Even if the bat drops, it's a huge defensive floor with random bombs so it won't turn into a Garcia. I would say, they'd still need a "hitter" for LF, but he's a huge missing piece. I'd love a 5/$110-120m extension (25-29). Agree with you on no 6th year unless this year us year 6. Last year might be rough in that, but the window is now and literally no other SS are coming up anywhere in FA for years. They can afford it even at Bruce budgets. These SP are going to be cheap a looooong time.

[rmc523]

It has nothing to do with that, it scales up for Arb2/3. It's $300k, but probably over $2m if Jazz is "good" the next two years. Every franchise in baseball would opt for this cost saving, with probably half splitting in the middle at $2.75m or something to avoid the hassle. These guys suck, but not because of this

I get that side of it, and Agree it’s a smart thing to do if you were going to use the savings elsewhere.

The problem is, I have zero faith that they’re going to reallocate that money and improve the team with it. At this point, Bruce is just going to put it in his bank account and still preach about “sustainability” and winning….somehow.

[lou]

I get that side of it, and Agree it’s a smart thing to do if you were going to use the savings elsewhere.

The problem is, I have zero faith that they’re going to reallocate that money and improve the team with it. At this point, Bruce is just going to put it in his bank account and still preach about “sustainability” and winning….somehow.

Absolutely. Bruce "We have unspecified debt to pay off" Sherman

[lou]

Blow them away for Adames and Williams leading with Noble. Sign Adames for 6 years. Everything is forgiven and life is great.

I just want to add here how this practically could work and why it makes sense for both parties. If you map out the Brewers control years/surplus value of these guys, an attractive package would be:

Adames, D. Williams, Payamps, B. Perkins
for
Noble, Nardi, Amaya, and two FV40 throw-ins top 20-30 prospects (likely right handed arms).

Yes I know we like Amaya and love Nardi, but they need another IF and a defender who can maybe hit lefties makes sense and it's basically balancing out the R/L bullpen imbalance with Nardi/Payamps for the Marlins, and they get the control years. Perkins is a 5th OF defender they don't need and is a little juice for the Marlins.


The Brewers end up with this longterm quickly:

C Contreras, Quero (top 75 prospect)
1B _____ (Hoskins for 2 years)
2B Turang(FV50), Monasterio/Miller/______ (could need another IF type)
SS Ortiz (top 75 prospect), Amaya
3B Black (top 75 prospect)
LF Yelich, Weimar(FV50)
CF Chourio (top 5 prospect), G. Mitchell
RF Frelick(FV50)

SP F. Peralta, ____, Misiorowski (top 75 prospect), Ashby (back from injury), ____ (Miley and Rea for 2 years, Noble 2-3 years away)
SP/RP Hall, Gasser (could end up as SP, probably relievers)
RP ____, Nardi, Uribe, C. Rodriguez, Small and a few of Peguero/Wilson/Bukauskis/Junk for rotating last arms.


2024 will be a bit rough as they work in the kids but that's fine. They just traded Burnes, Adames, and Williams (and Woodruff died) in this idea so it will be rough. But they'll have cleared so much longterm money moving Burnes, Adames, Williams, (Woodruff), and Payamps (in arb) and secured so much club control (only Yelich and presumably Peralta and Conreras extension would be notable payroll longterm), they'll be able to sign a longterm SP this or next offseason, and have Noble in the pipeline. It would behoove them to draft a college SP in 2024 with their # 1 pick on top of this as the lineup is really set for years. They can go 1 year deals for 1B/DH types after Hoskins. 2024 should be a big college arm year for them. This is a scary team in 25/26 even with a few guys not making it as they have backup options and the possibility for cheap veteran plug-ins.

This is a real cohesive plan for the Brew Crew. Other teams rumored for Adames like the Dodgers don't have something as good as Noble + excellent secondary guys like Amaya/Nardi to send over. They have two premium catchers (Rushing, Cartaya), and the Brewers are set up there, etc. Noble blows away the Dodgers arms so he is the real prize.

Of course all contingent on an Adames extension.

Conversely for the Marlins longer term:

C ____, Fortes (Maybe Banfield)
1B Burger (Bell for 1 year, Burger will move here or DH soon, maybe Berry makes it)
2B Edwards, Brujan/Cappe/_____ (Arraez for 2 years!!!)
SS Adames, _____ (Berti for 2 years)
3B ______
LF _____, DLC (.... Garcia for 2 years....) (Maybe D. Myers surprises)
CF Jazz, Mesa Jr./Perkins/_____
RF Sanchez

SP Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Garret, Cabrera, Rogers, Meyer (Fulton 2+ years away, White 3+ years away)
SP/RP Puk, Weathers, Soriano
RP ____, Payamps, Bender, and a few of Maldonado/others (D. Williams for 2 years!!! Scott for 1 year!!! Recoup QO picks for them!!!)

So the Marlins have work to do for sure position wise, but they'd have likely a SP to trade, and would have 2 years to figure out some of those blank lines because they still have Arraez, Berti, and D. Williams for 2 seasons and that's major production. It's screaming college bats at 3B/OF in 2024 and Bendix earning his paycheck finding some diamond bat like how they made H. Ramirez good and fixed Lee's swoon J. Siri. That could be a Luzardo trade to get two of those offensive blank lines figured out quickly (and clear some payroll as a lot would be added extending Adames and carrying a super luxury RP for 2 seasons), but we could probably live with that given the overall SP picture here (which is outstanding). It's probably a $110m 2024 team and $110-115m 2025 team depending on arbitration or keeping Berti as a luxury, etc. Then you hope to contend and let Arraez walk and take the QO pick, and then 2026 payroll is manageable, as frankly that entire team is still there above (besides Luzardo), you turned him into two controlled bats, and everyone is cheap besides Adames and Sandy, and maybe Jazz if extended (Arraez, Luzardo in a trade, Williams, and Garcia falling off payroll is A LOT of money),

It'll work in theory. It's just a question of do you believe Adames is a 3 WAR SS for a few seasons. Reasonable minds can disagree there, but I'd take a shot given the defensive floor and he has legit power. Also assuming he doesn't want a $175m deal and I can't imagine he would. He would probably fall into the $110-125m range which is fine for this hypothetical. You do this to be a real team in 2024 with an outrageous Williams-Scott-Payamps-Puk bullpen, and then trade Luzardo for a club controlled 3B (.... like Mayo and Norby and friends) after 2024 and all of it makes sense to me. They can afford this and matches the rest of the team at payrolls at or under 2023 levels. Worry about the 2027 rotation in July of 2026 at earliest. Do it Bruce and Bendix. Plant the flag.