2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

If they’re not actively seriously planning on what extension offer to make to Jazz (who is BY FAR their most marketable player) this organization is completely fucked beyond repair

Kind of. I think there is a legitimate question about defense and durability. But at some point one must jump in the pool. He might be the special one to do it with over $80-85m as it's not like a 2B fallback is going to be difficult.

I do think a triple Jazz-Arraez-Luzardo extension like I've floated would give the fans plus the players a lot of confidence moving forward. It's not like these players don't see what others are getting and Sandy, Jazz, Arraez, and Luzardo is a BIG plant your flag start. That telegraphs quickly to the Rogers, Cabrera, and maybe even Garret, Puk, DLC, and Sanchez camps there are opportunities in a year or two and not everyone gets jettisoned like Pablo.

I do hope this is being worked on.

[lou]

Just so infuriating not to make another move for correa.

It's even more infuriating when you look ahead:

2024 - Andrus, Crawford, DeJong, IKF, A. Mondesi, Rosario
2025 - Adames, Anderson, Kim

Adames seems like a guy who gets extended or traded + extended as the Brewers are smart. Likely not worth it for Miami. Rosario likely helps them contend and is cut loose and Kim who knows but a superior defensive option. I think he might hit a little though.

Stop gap solutions to 2024 may be tough as we're back to Andrus. If Brandon Crawford is the big signing, kill me. This is gearing up for Rosario or a prospect trade (R. Lewis may be really interesting at the deadline if needs match up) unless Amaya is really something and/or Groshans or Berti appear to be capable enough at SS to get to 2025 when maybe old man Anderson makes sense or one of the younger guys.

I really hate what they have done with this position group. Thankfully, everything else makes sense on paper though.

[fish16]

Kind of. I think there is a legitimate question about defense and durability. But at some point one must jump in the pool. He might be the special one to do it with over $80-85m as it's not like a 2B fallback is going to be difficult.

I do think a triple Jazz-Arraez-Luzardo extension like I've floated would give the fans plus the players a lot of confidence moving forward. It's not like these players don't see what others are getting and Sandy, Jazz, Arraez, and Luzardo is a BIG plant your flag start. That telegraphs quickly to the Rogers, Cabrera, and maybe even Garret, Puk, DLC, and Sanchez camps there are opportunities in a year or two and not everyone gets jettisoned like Pablo.

I do hope this is being worked on.

id argue cabrera deserves to be in that first group. I think they would be very prudent to sign both him and luzardo as quickly as possible before this year starts. Both of them are going to break out this year and become a lot more expensive in an extension.

[lou]

id argue cabrera deserves to be in that first group. I think they would be very prudent to sign both him and luzardo as quickly as possible before this year starts. Both of them are going to break out this year and become a lot more expensive in an extension.

Cabrera is not getting notably more expensive. He'd still be a full season from super2 arbitration.

Luzardo will get more expensive if he drops a 3 WAR season for sure.

[fish16]

Cabrera is not getting notably more expensive. He'd still be a full season from super2 arbitration.

Luzardo will get more expensive if he drops a 3 WAR season for sure.

He will absolutely get more expensive going from 75 innings of good pitching last year to a full season producing what we think he will produce this year

[lou]

He will absolutely get more expensive going from 75 innings of good pitching last year to a full season producing what we think he will produce this year

I don't think you understand how things work here. He will not get notably more expensive 5 seasons from free agency and only throwing 125 innings (even if awesome). The comps are what they are - Aaron Nola, Sandy Alcantara, Freddy Peralta, German Marquez, Luis Severino. These are what they are.

If they were to sign Cabrera right now, it is probably 6/$20-25 with at least two club options worth a lot - call it $15-20m each. That starts in 2023 so potentially 2 free agency years. Effectively through 8 years of service time, he could make $50-65m with that set up. For perspective, Sandy has $57m guaranteed through 8 years. The difference being it is guaranteed and this would not be (since Cabrera is not established). So it's Cabrera getting to his upside if he makes it, but it's with options hence club friendly. But hey, $20-25m today is great potentially for him with the arm history so it's not a bad offer if you believe. Scott Kingery made a great deal for him.

So let's say he drops 125 IP at a 3.4 ERA and 2+ WAR. How does this change?

They are probably looking at - 5 full seasons from free agency - something like...... 5/$27-30m. So yea this ticks up potentially a lot (that is big % jump in guarantee if we are talking $20m versus $30m) with two club options maybe on the higher end of that $15-20m scale. He's probably looking at scaling those years up closer to the $55-65m range. Maybe there is a third club option like some recent deals also (Gimenez) so it's still an 8 year deal.

So basically, the Marlins are probably risking $5-10m on a buyout signing him now versus next offseason. That's over 7-8 seasons. That is not notably more expensive IMO. Once you start stacking multiple close to free agency years next to each other, or you win a cy young, it can get out of hand. But that literally can't happen here. I mean I guess he can drop a 6 WAR year like Gimenez, but I find this doubtful he becomes a top 5 SP in baseball now.


The question here is, is Cabrera worth 6/$20-25m now. I know your answer here that the juice is worth the squeeze. Frankly, I would do it too. But compare that to, in a best case scenario for Cabrera, that shifts to probably 5/$30m next year. The club options probably are negligible and net out in either way. It's still really cheap. I'm not sweating this for him. None of this would impact anything they do. They can wait here to show some risk tolerance for next year.


Luzardo is a different animal with his service time and him flashing last year and velocity up this spring. He's the one. He might go full Dylan Cease on us quickly so I'd risk the deal to not get killed.

[lou]

Also DLC is starting in left and won't be platooned - https://twitter.com/CDeNicola13/stat...54177995792385

You know, what they said they were going to do in November.

[Namaste]

Fangraphs gives us a 22.5% chance to make the playoffs


D’Backs have a 15.1% chance for comparison

[lou]

Fangraphs gives us a 22.5% chance to make the playoffs


D’Backs have a 15.1% chance for comparison

Projected record 80-82.

Phillies and Brewers at 84 wins (one is the WC favorite take your pick).

Carlos Correa consensus WAR projection across all platforms - 5.1

FML

[Lee Stone]

Also DLC is starting in left and won't be platooned - https://twitter.com/CDeNicola13/stat...54177995792385

You know, what they said they were going to do in November.

Of course De La Cruz will play more than Sanchez. After all, DLC doesn't hit, run, throw or defend as well.

Game one guess: Marlins 2, Mets 6. In two home starts vs the same Mets lineup last season, Alcantara gave up four runs in each.

[lou]

Of course De La Cruz will play more than Sanchez. After all, DLC doesn't hit, run, throw or defend as well.

Game one guess: Marlins 2, Mets 6. In two home starts vs the same Mets lineup last season, Alcantara gave up four runs in each.

DLC has a better hitting profile and is faster. But Sanchez is certainly the better defender (or has much higher defensive potential).

Maybe take this as a positive Lee - maybe this means Garcia may be phased out a little and they are aiming for something like Soler getting 140+ starts, DLC 130+, Garcia 110+, and Sanchez 100+. That can easily happen shading Garcia's time down a little and still leaves Gurriel 80+ starts against lefties and some off days at DH/1B as some of that DLC time is going to be in CF versus lefties for sure.

Frankly, that's what I would do. Money be damned. They do have to play Garcia and see what happens, but I'd love them to open as DLC-Jazz-hard Sanchez/Garcia R/L opposing pitcher platoon as the core OF, and Garcia would grab some extra starts on the DLC and Jazz off days. Everyone would eat here and whoever wants to hit can get more time.

[rmc523]

DLC has a better hitting profile and is faster. But Sanchez is certainly the better defender (or has much higher defensive potential).

Maybe take this as a positive Lee - maybe this means Garcia may be phased out a little and they are aiming for something like Soler getting 140+ starts, DLC 130+, Garcia 110+, and Sanchez 100+. That can easily happen shading Garcia's time down a little and still leaves Gurriel 80+ starts against lefties and some off days at DH/1B as some of that DLC time is going to be in CF versus lefties for sure.

Frankly, that's what I would do. Money be damned. They do have to play Garcia and see what happens, but I'd love them to open as DLC-Jazz-hard Sanchez/Garcia R/L opposing pitcher platoon as the core OF, and Garcia would grab some extra starts on the DLC and Jazz off days. Everyone would eat here and whoever wants to hit can get more time.

Put the best team on the field, regardless of contract. Put Garcia out there to see if he rebounds, but if he doesn't oh well.

[Todd]

"Ray, people will come Ray. They'll come to Iowa for reasons they can't even fathom. They'll turn up your driveway not knowing for sure why they're doing it. They'll arrive at your door as innocent as children, longing for the past. Of course, we won't mind if you look around, you'll say. It's only $20 per person. They'll pass over the money without even thinking about it: for it is money they have and peace they lack.

And they'll walk out to the bleachers; sit in shirtsleeves on a perfect afternoon. They'll find they have reserved seats somewhere along one of the baselines, where they sat when they were children and cheered their heroes. And they'll watch the game and it'll be as if they dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick they'll have to brush them away from their faces.

People will come Ray.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time.

This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... people will come Ray. People will most definitely come."
Field of Dreams, 1989

It's Opening Day.

[fish16]

lineup today is arraez, segura, cooper, jazz, soler, garcia, DLC, stallings, wendle.

I would have switched jazz and cooper but i like it. Id like to see berti as the starting SS but they are going to give wendle a chance. Him and Stallings were truly awful in spring.

[fish16]

i dont even recall this bat jazz batted 9th last year opening day. our lineup last year to start the year was a real doozy. A mattingly special- Soler, cooper, Sanchez, Aguilar, Garcia, Wendle. Rojas, Stallings, Jazz