2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

cf trade target for Marlins:Ceddanne Rafaela, OF/SS. Few Red Sox prospects in recent memory -- if any -- have made the type of jump Rafaela made in 2022. He started the season ranked No. 28 in Boston’s farm system as rated by MLB Pipeline. By midseason, he vaulted all the way up to No. 4. Now? Rafaela is No. 3.

The 5-8, wiry prospect has drawn comparisons to Mookie Betts due to his size and athleticism. Look for Rafaela to play his way up to Triple-A Worcester in 2023, at which point he will be just a phone call away for the Red Sox. His defensive exploits in center field are already legendary. He is also a plus defender at short. Rafaela was a force at the plate, slashing .299/.342/.538 with 32 doubles, 10 triples, 21 homers, 86 RBIs and 28 stolen bases.

His value approximates that of Braxton Garrett and is about half that of Pablo Lopez. Something could be worked out involving one of those two. A brilliant CF defender is key to making the most out of a strong starting staff for the Marlins. His minimum wage for several years is also attractive. For me, Nunez at SS, Jazz at second and Rafaela in CF would be an enticing defensive core for a speed dominant club.

Fangraphs - "Rafaela has had a breakout 2022 season, and even though he has some approach-driven bust risk, he does enough other stuff to project in a prominent big league role. For one, he's an excellent defender at a number of positions, capable of playing center field and a couple spots on the infield. His swing is a Mookie Betts clone, rhythmic and athletic, though Rafaela doesn't take a very discerning at-bat the way Betts does. Even though he's blown past his career-high in homers, his top-end exit velos are middling right now, though the barely 21-year-old has room for growth and strength on his frame. He's so fast that he could probably lose half a step and still play a good center field. He could be a super utility type in the Chris Taylor mold."


There better be *a lot* more if you want to throw around Garrett, let alone Pablo. He is nowhere equal to Garrett and half of Pablo. Nowhere close. I don't know what you are looking at here. He's likely not MLB ready until 2024 also so this isn't even a solution for the Marlins needs today.

I like the idea don't get me wrong, but this is the wrong class of players to be looking at for a trade. He's a FV45 prospect like Misner with a good bench player projection. That guy is traded for Wendles or Floros or Bleiers. Count me interested for that + cost savings.

[lou]

Yeah for me literally the only massively shitty thing about Stanton’s departure is that (as everyone here knows) Loria NEVER had any intention of paying the vast majority of Stanton’s contract out of his own pocket. It was all a sham.

Yes he's still on the Marlins books as he opted in with the Yankees in fact! They owe him $10m in 2026, 2027, AND 2028. Thanks Jeff.

[Nick]

Yeah for me literally the only massively shitty thing about Stanton’s departure is that (as everyone here knows) Loria NEVER had any intention of paying the vast majority of Stanton’s contract out of his own pocket. It was all a sham.

And the only reason he finally gave in to giving somebody a No Trade Clause is because he knew it wouldn't be his problem.

Fucking Asshole.

[sports24/7]

getting his contract out of here was way bigger than anything they could have done. they got nothing for him so thats the only reason im calling it poor execution, but i never really expected them to get much for him anyways. I guess poor execution probably isnt the best phrase to use, probably should have just said they didnt get anything of value. The poor execution was more referring to Yelich and JT. They werent getting anything for Stanton due to his contract and the fact that he requested a trade and had a NTC and clearly didnt want to be here. he had all the leverage and he used it, as he had the right to do. Since he left he played in 158 games, then 18, 23, 140, and then 110 this year. He is constantly injured and hasnt had an OPS above 900 since he left here. He will be 33 next year and STILL has 5 more guaranteed years on that deal and a club option for the 6th year. He is due 32, 32, 32, 29, 25, and then 25 million for the last year. Getting rid of that salary was the most important thing.

I don't know about this one. His contract was so massive any downturn in production or injury then makes him on the books forever. I think they "won" the Stanton trade to this day. He's given them 8.6 WAR in 4+ seasons (counting Covid as a + here) and has 5 more on the books. For an annual in the mid/high $20m, that is pretty bad to be pacing as a 2+ WAR player. Brian Anderson has 8.8 WAR for the Marlins. I kid you not.

The thing is, you were never actually going to keep Stanton because Stanton most likely would have eventually given in. He didn't want to be on a rebuilding team. And if he didn't, you still would have been able to trade him to one of his preferred destinations. It's not like the package could have gotten much worse.

[Lee Stone]

Fangraphs - "Rafaela has had a breakout 2022 season, and even though he has some approach-driven bust risk, he does enough other stuff to project in a prominent big league role. For one, he's an excellent defender at a number of positions, capable of playing center field and a couple spots on the infield. His swing is a Mookie Betts clone, rhythmic and athletic, though Rafaela doesn't take a very discerning at-bat the way Betts does. Even though he's blown past his career-high in homers, his top-end exit velos are middling right now, though the barely 21-year-old has room for growth and strength on his frame. He's so fast that he could probably lose half a step and still play a good center field. He could be a super utility type in the Chris Taylor mold."


There better be *a lot* more if you want to throw around Garrett, let alone Pablo. He is nowhere equal to Garrett and half of Pablo. Nowhere close. I don't know what you are looking at here. He's likely not MLB ready until 2024 also so this isn't even a solution for the Marlins needs today.

I like the idea don't get me wrong, but this is the wrong class of players to be looking at for a trade. He's a FV45 prospect like Misner with a good bench player projection. That guy is traded for Wendles or Floros or Bleiers. Count me interested for that + cost savings.

MLB Pipeline rates Rafaela's tools as all in the 50-60 range and gives him a 55 overall. That's pretty elite. Baseball Trade Values rates him at 15.1 and Garrett at 15.9. Lopez is at about 35 and would require additional player(s) in a trade one would conclude.

I don't agree with many of the BTV assigned numbers, but they come pretty close when actual trades occur. As an example, Max Meyer currently carries a 21 or so value compared to Jake Eder's 7. Eder was better than Meyer at Pensacola and has already had his TJS. I would rate him higher than Meyer for sure. But to each their own. Note: Fangraphs didn't even place Eder on their 2021 prospect list!

[sports24/7]

MLB Pipeline rates Rafaela's tools as all in the 50-60 range and gives him a 55 overall. That's pretty elite. Baseball Trade Values rates him at 15.1 and Garrett at 15.9. Lopez is at about 35 and would require additional player(s) in a trade one would conclude.

I don't agree with many of the BTV assigned numbers, but they come pretty close when actual trades occur. As an example, Max Meyer currently carries a 21 or so value compared to Jake Eder's 7. Eder was better than Meyer at Pensacola and has already had his TJS. I would rate him higher than Meyer for sure. But to each their own. Note: Fangraphs didn't even place Eder on their 2021 prospect list!

50 is average and 60 is above average. They have his hit and power tools at 50, with his running and fielding as his only 60s. That's far from elite. They project him as a regular. I'm ok taking a flyer on a guy like that for, like, a RP. I'm not giving up a starter for someone like that.

[Lee Stone]

50 is average and 60 is above average. They have his hit and power tools at 50, with his running and fielding as his only 60s. That's far from elite. They project him as a regular. I'm ok taking a flyer on a guy like that for, like, a RP. I'm not giving up a starter for someone like that.

As a 21 year old,playing 40% of his season in High-A and 60% at AA, he totaled 21 hr, 34 2b 10 3b and 25 sb and 86 rbi. in 2022. That would have made him the Marlin POY by a country mile.

[lou]

MLB Pipeline rates Rafaela's tools as all in the 50-60 range and gives him a 55 overall. That's pretty elite. Baseball Trade Values rates him at 15.1 and Garrett at 15.9. Lopez is at about 35 and would require additional player(s) in a trade one would conclude.

I don't agree with many of the BTV assigned numbers, but they come pretty close when actual trades occur. As an example, Max Meyer currently carries a 21 or so value compared to Jake Eder's 7. Eder was better than Meyer at Pensacola and has already had his TJS. I would rate him higher than Meyer for sure. But to each their own. Note: Fangraphs didn't even place Eder on their 2021 prospect list!

MLB Pipeline and Baseball Trade Values aren't very good websites. Fangraphs has Eder as 111 overall also, which is where he should be outside top-100 off injury.

Your boy Rafaela is 156 on Fangraphs, which is a HUGE jump and virtual tie with Fulton or Morisette also. This all makes sense as in no way, shape, or form would be trade Eder for Rafaela. Hell, I question Fulton big time as-is.

So you think Braxton Garrett is worth Fulton or Morisette straight up? And Pablo is Fulton AND Morisette (roughly). There would be riots of all remaining Marlins fans and calls for Kim's head tomorrow.

[lou]

50 is average and 60 is above average. They have his hit and power tools at 50, with his running and fielding as his only 60s. That's far from elite. They project him as a regular. I'm ok taking a flyer on a guy like that for, like, a RP. I'm not giving up a starter for someone like that.

Exactly - Floro, Bleier, Wendle, Rojas, Cooper, Anderson. Maybe throw in an outside top 25 prospect for the hell of it. Or maybe do another "Gallen trade and bet on a 1-1 with Fulton, Lewis, Morisette, Nunez, even Sixto, etc. That's the move here. Garrett or 1/2 Pablo. God help us.

[sports24/7]

As a 21 year old,playing 40% of his season in High-A and 60% at AA, he totaled 21 hr, 34 2b 10 3b and 25 sb and 86 rbi. in 2022. That would have made him the Marlin POY by a country mile.

Maybe, but would that make him a great prospect? Peyton Burdick won that award last year. It also doesn't change the grades MLB Pipeline gave him. I'm not saying he can't become a very good player. Maybe he will. But based off of the information we have, he's far from someone the Marlins should trade a valuable resource for.

[sports24/7]

Mish is reporting that Joe Espada and Matt Quatraro will conduct second interviews for the Marlins Manager job. He suggested there were interviews that were not reported, but that DeRosa was not one of them. Also, if I'm reading the tea leaves properly based on some of his responses to others, it feels like he may believe it's going to be Espada.

[rmc523]

MLBTR did their Offseason Outlook for the Marlins:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/...arlins-10.html

It mostly just highlights what we already know - they need the same things as last offseason - offense and bullpen.

[fish16]

joe mack has been really impressive in AFL. Plays like John baker his first few years with us but with a lot more power.

[lou]

MLBTR did their Offseason Outlook for the Marlins:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/...arlins-10.html

It mostly just highlights what we already know - they need the same things as last offseason - offense and bullpen.

Someone in the comments stole my trade idea:

Trade proposal with the Dbacks:

Soler and Lopez to the Dbacks for
Bumgarner and McCarthy

Bad contracts exchange Soler for Bumgarner
Marlins get Jake McCarthy for CF answer
Dbacks get Pablo Lopez


Although mine was swapping in Garret and the Marlins throwing them something else instead. Pablo is too much there without Thomas involved, but Soler-Bumgarner makes a ton of sense and if that opens up a second big Pablo trade, I would start the year Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Bumgarner, Rogers + McCarthy in CF and dudes for Pablo for sure. Sign some relievers and god willingly another bat. Makes sense.

[fish16]

bumgarner is too much money for that to be the return on pablo. Id do pablo and soler for bumgarner and thomas or garrett and soler for bumgarner and mccarthy. If bumgarner was a free agent after next year maybe, but 23 million next year and 14 the year after is too much for a guy who hasnt had a XFIP less than 4.32 since 2017.

Or just trade pablo and find a CF you identify like a Thomas type and hope for a bounce back from Soler and Garcia instead of taking on even more money for someone elses "Soler" or "garcia"

That's my ideal offseason: Pablo for Thomas, in an ideal world spend money on Correa, and then sign some bullpen arms.

C- Fortes/Stallings
1b- Cooper
2b- Jazz
SS- Correa
3b- Anderson/Wendle
LF- Bleday/Sanchez platoon
CF-Thomas
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler

Bench- Rojas, Leblanc, backup C, Anderson/Wendle, Berti
SP- Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers
RP- Floro, Bleier, Tanner Scott, Okert, 1 closer, 2 middle relievers (we're talking maybe 10-15 million to adress the bullpen)

That's a lot more pop and depth in the lineup, the rotation will have some innings limitations for one year but they can survive that and with limited money they have to take calculated risks, and the bullpen will be shallow but good relievers get signed for very little every single year.

Lou can probably do the math as far as what that costs but thats the best they can do.

There are also a few ways they can save a little money here and there- nontendering Elieser, declining Wendle's 6.3 million option and going to arbitration with him which is projected for a million less, etc. They can make it work if Sherman is willing to open up the wallet for a star like Correa to win.