2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

For reference on just how little talent this team has offensively, our team as a whole put up a slugging percentage of .363 this year. Juan pierre's career slugging was .361. Dee Gordon's was/is .360.

Our OBP as a team was .294. Mike Jacobs career OBP is .313. Jarrod Saltalamacchia's is .306. Former glove only SS for us Alex Gonzalez's was .290. Adeiny Hechavarria's was .290. Robert Andino's was .294.

So as a team we got on base at a Robert andino level and slugged at a juan pierre and dee gordon level without the DH.

But god forbid we trade pablo and need to fill some innings for next year. That might not allow us to compete next year!!!

[Nick]

no, you dont trade the best pitcher under contract for cheap for years to come. you trade the mid rotation guy with an injury history coming off his best season and 2 years away from free agency when they have no intention of re-signing him.

If the Orioles want to give us Rutschman, Henderson and Cowser, I'd listen on Sandy, but outside of that, yeah doesn't make sense.

[Lee Stone]

The return for Pablo is nothing compared to Alcantara. For Pablo you get a prospect or two that may or may not become average everyday players.

[Nick]

The return for Pablo is nothing compared to Alcantara. For Pablo you get a prospect or two that may or may not become average everyday players.

You're underselling Pablo's value a little bit, but yes we all get the concept of Alcantara having way more value than Pablo. The problem is we lose that value if we trade him, and being able to match the value we're losing in Alcantara is a lot harder to do than matching the value we lose in Pablo.

[sports24/7]

The return for Pablo is nothing compared to Alcantara. For Pablo you get a prospect or two that may or may not become average everyday players.

Or you trade Pablo and a prospect and get a good hitter ready to contribute now. That’s much easier to stomach than trading a 27 year old Cy Young winner on a ridiculously cheap deal.

[lou]

Wendle had an 84 WRC+ and .654 OPS after his hot start from june on last year and an 87 WRC+ and a .657 OPS this year plus he was injured for a large chunk of the year. He had been bad for a year and a half. I dont care about defensively driven WAR because im focused on finding a lineup that can hit to improve a bottom 3 offense in the league and defensive metrics are not consistent on a year to year basis nor is it measured very well. See defensive wizard Jacob stallings who according to you had such a healthy floor this year, grading out negatively defensively and therefore being flat out terrible this year because his bat was even worse than advertised. Offensive production is significantly more consistent on a year to year basis for the most part, and it's what this team needs, not defensively driven value.. WAR is an imperfect stat because there is not a good measure really on how to value defense and it makes citing WAR useless when debating constructing this teams lineup moving forward because it's effect is to inflate the WAR of players who are just not good.

Kind of like how ramon laureano was this defensive wizard his age 23 and 24 seasons and now at age 27 he's bad defensively.

Here's the problem with this, beggars cant be choosers.

Bruce is unlikely going to authorize a $110m payroll - we agree here right?

The Marlins need to turn over every rock to find undervalued production as that's the only way they are going to bridge any gap to getting to a positive run differential and 87+ wins. With no budget, this team HAS to find the Rojas, Wendle, and Stallings guys who make up runs in the field as offensive guys are typically more expensive (absent the Kiermaier/Simmons in their primes who did do well contractually, etc.). This includes more expensive in trade. This is frankly Moneyball 101 and they need to keep doing this over and over and over again. And then, over and over and over and over again until Bruce decides he wants to spend as much money as Milwaukee.

As a thought exercise as you keep badgering on Stallings, Stallings was still a good idea so we can't fault them for the process there. He was very good 2019-2021 and they didn't give up much. Looks like Thompson is a bust already. In his defense, he was pretty good since mid July (.282/.360/.380 final 164 PA, and I picked that date from the "low" point of his OPS). The defense still wasn't there, but maybe that was a year blip? His BABIP was also 21 points lower than his career so he was unlucky. At the same time, the pitching took a step forward so maybe he has some Jeff Mathis magic in him and he helped everyone and it isn't measured in his own production? I don't know what to think here TBH, but the point here is, I do know Fortes and Stallings are a pretty good combo at likely $3.5-3.75m next year. The # 15 catcher last year in production was the Rays catchers and they had a 1.4 WAR (really that's it. Catchers are bad in baseball right now especially backups). I would bet Fortes (1.7 WAR his first 275 PA to note) and Stallings get the OVER on that and we have some Stallings regression (offensively and defensively), and Fortes won't be as good but will hold his own at least against RHP (.762 OPS career split). For under $4m dollars easily, this is a good situation where they have likely created a floor middle of the pack catcher situation. With upside to maybe get to 12th or higher range (2.4 WAR) if Fortes keeps anywhere near his current rate and Stallings gets closer to 2019-2021 rates. This situation is totally fine entering next year. When you complain the Marlins have Jazz and nothing, you are just venting frustration rather than looking at the bigger picture. This is a good example. Half the teams in baseball wish they had Fortes and Stallings for this payroll right now.

Now don't get me wrong, if they wan't to be creative and try and get Danny Jansen (2.6 WAR under 300 PA, and over 4 last two seasons) I'll be all for it. They could frankly trade Stallings for a nothing prospect and the Marlins would then be entering the year with a top 10 catching combo. But this seems like a real luxury and stretch because they have to use what they can trade to fix CF and presumably at least one of 1B/SS first. It swings back to Bruce here is he going to open up payroll so they "CAN" do the exorcism you want and get 5-6 new guys coming in. Frankly, I don't see that happening.

Beggars cant be choosers. If the Marlins have to keep getting defensive guys as that is all that fits into the budget, suppressing a run counts the same as scoring one. I too hope for better days, but you are constantly making everything a binary choice where they have to just get offense and they can only use Pablo to get it. Those are wrong. Everything is grey and should be based on value. Maybe a Pablo or Rogers or Garrett trade make the most sense at the end of the day? But maybe they figure it out using other assets. We shall see. I would recommend to not have blinders on.

[lou]

If the Orioles want to give us Rutschman, Henderson and Cowser, I'd listen on Sandy, but outside of that, yeah doesn't make sense.

I'd do Rutschman straight up TBH. Go look at his season line, and then add in some cheaper cost certainty and safety in being a hitter. Plus positional scarcity. But there are -very- few players or packages you would entertain for Sandy.

Lee is wrong of course here, but he isn't wrong about this one - For Pablo you get a prospect or two that may or may not become average everyday players.

The Mahle trade is not exciting and Mahle comps arguably pretty close to Pablo. There is no certainty they'd get the Castillo/Montas package for him, let alone with MLB ready guys. Frankly he'd be gone already if they could do that.

[Nick]

Honestly I don't see a way of competing next year without getting the payroll up near $110 million, and even in that scenario, you gotta fucking hit on your free agent acquisitions, which we haven't done in decades at this point. Without that happening, you'd have to get somebody to stupidly overpay for Pablo and make several other savvy moves trading probably a majority of our prospect capital to fill holes in the lineup. I just don't see it happening. /negativenancy

[sports24/7]

Honestly I don't see a way of competing next year without getting the payroll up near $110 million, and even in that scenario, you gotta fucking hit on your free agent acquisitions, which we haven't done in decades at this point. Without that happening, you'd have to get somebody to stupidly overpay for Pablo and make several other savvy moves trading probably a majority of our prospect capital to fill holes in the lineup. I just don't see it happening. /negativenancy

The only way they can compete at a similar payroll to what they have now would be if they trade one SP and/or prospects for at least one impact bat, the remaining SP don't regress at all, Jazz returns at his 2022 form, Garcia and Soler bounce back to at least perform at their contract level, you find a bargain FA who outperforms his contract (like a 2022 Joc Pederson), and you hit on bargain RPs. That's a hell of a lot of "ifs" though, and very unlikely. Unfortunately, I'm worried that's what the FO is going to bank on.

[Namaste]

fish16 saying Jon Berti is a nothing bench player after Berti posted a 2.3 WAR this year is the content that keeps me coming back

[Namaste]

Updated Fangraphs Top 100

Eury #2 (FV 65 tied with #1 Gunnar Henderson)
Salas #83
Berry #102

#https://twitter.com/fangraphs/status...si1nUrnGm6oIrA

[lou]

Updated Fangraphs Top 100

Eury #2 (FV 65 tied with #1 Gunnar Henderson)
Salas #83
Berry #102

#https://twitter.com/fangraphs/status...si1nUrnGm6oIrA

Don't mention Salas is a top 100 prospect or you will face the FIRE.

This is very fair with Meyer/Eder being hurt and Cappe/Fulton/Watson/Lewis needing a larger sample size.

Really insane stuff with Eury. Would still love to trade him for Carroll though (other players can be involved before I get yelled at).

[sports24/7]

Updated Fangraphs Top 100

Eury #2 (FV 65 tied with #1 Gunnar Henderson)
Salas #83
Berry #102

#https://twitter.com/fangraphs/status...si1nUrnGm6oIrA

Man, Eury has soared up these boards, huh? The article even mentions that he thought hard about making him #1. I don't think I'd even entertain trading him at this point unless you're getting a ready-made young star. Imagine a rotation led by Sandy, Cabrera, and Perez all hitting their potential. You'd just need two more of the other guys to even be solid to have one of the better rotations the league has seen in some time. At that point, you could even be content with Meyer as a lights out closer. The organization would still need to learn to develop some hitters (or at least acquire some), but that's an exciting thought.

[lou]

Man, Eury has soared up these boards, huh? The article even mentions that he thought hard about making him #1. I don't think I'd even entertain trading him at this point unless you're getting a ready-made young star. Imagine a rotation led by Sandy, Cabrera, and Perez all hitting their potential. You'd just need two more of the other guys to even be solid to have one of the better rotations the league has seen in some time. At that point, you could even be content with Meyer as a lights out closer. The organization would still need to learn to develop some hitters (or at least acquire some), but that's an exciting thought.

TBH my dream 2024 staff is:

Sandy, Rogers, Cabrera, Luzardo, Eury
Meyer, Sixto, Bender, Poteet, "Whoever"
Garrett, Eder, Fulton

But but but fish16 says no Pablo - yes if all goes right it's a next year trade.

But but but some of those guys are SP - who gives a shit. Completely murder people with every pitcher. Throw everyone multiple innings. Or trickle them up when inevitably someone gets hurt.


Figure out the bats elsewhere. Salas is a centerpiece for sure. Cappe and Lewis are really close (check out Fangraphs, they are around 115 so they are *right* there) so they are borderline centerpieces, or dip into one of those left handers in the bullpen above and swap in Okert/Nardi/whoever. Pablo can be a third trade for another bat whenever. Berry can be a fourth large addition to Fortes/Jazz/Groshans/all the LF as the young kids. I assume 2023 1st rounder is another college bat too.

Hence the sky isn't falling. But they really are probably a year away so that sucks.

[fish16]

fish16 saying Jon Berti is a nothing bench player after Berti posted a 2.3 WAR this year is the content that keeps me coming back

if you think a guy with a 93 WRC+ and .662 OPS and .324 OBP was worth 2.3 WAR because of his defense which no one seems to be able to measure consistently that's on you. he was a bad hitter by any measure this year, and his 77 WRC+ was even worse last year. His OPS+ was 89 this year and 71 last year. he is a straight-up significantly below-average hitter, if you think his defense makes him worth more than 2 WAR, go ahead and fill 9 Jon Berti's in a lineup and see how that works out for you.

Berti had a 2.3 WAR with a .662 OPS, just 24 xbh's, and 41 steals.

Bobby witt JR also had 2.3 WAR. He hit .722 OPS, 30 SB, 20 HR's, 57 total XBH's.

Bryce Harper played in 3 less games than berti and only had .1 less WAR. He had an .877 OPS, 18 HR's, 11 sb's, 47 total xbh's.

Rhys Hoskins had .1 WAR less than berti. He had a .794 OPS, 30 hr's, 72 walks, 65 total xbh's.

Ronald acuna played in 17 more games than Berti and had .1 less WAR than him despite hitting for a .764 OPS, 29 SB's, 39 XBH's.

Justin Turner had .1 WAR more than Berti, despite playing in 26 more games and hitting .788 OPS and 49 XBH's.

Now you tell me, was jon berti anywhere close to these guys in terms of production, or does WAR grossly overvalue players defense over the value they produce on offense?