2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Nick]

Not sure if any of you follow Aram Leighton, but he brought up this interesting point on Twitter:

“The Marlins almost have to make some trades at the deadline because I have no clue how they are going to open up 40-Man spots for their Rule 5 eligible prospects.

Bleday, Burdick, Conine, Johnston, Soriano, Hoeing, Leblanc and Simpson all candidates to be selected in Rule 5”

Really if it were up to me, only Bleday, Burdick and Johnston would be priorities to avoid the Rule 5. Even with Johnston, I'd have very little worry about him getting selected. I like Leblanc, but if he can't get an opportunity this year, I really don't see it happening. I want Conine to work out badly, but let's face it. He's 25 years old in AA striking out 36% of his Plate Appearances.

[Erick]

Really if it were up to me, only Bleday, Burdick and Johnston would be priorities to avoid the Rule 5. Even with Johnston, I'd have very little worry about him getting selected. I like Leblanc, but if he can't get an opportunity this year, I really don't see it happening. I want Conine to work out badly, but let's face it. He's 25 years old in AA striking out 36% of his Plate Appearances.

They asked Kim Ng about prospects in the system the other day that she likes, and the first name she mentioned was Soriano. I’m not sure why he was the first name, but I would imagine they would like keep him too.

[Nick]

They asked Kim Ng about prospects in the system the other day that she likes, and the first name she mentioned was Soriano. I’m not sure why he was the first name, but I would imagine they would like keep him too.

I find it odd that the first name mentioned was a guy they recently transitioned to reliever, but yeah I'm sure they do like him as a future bullpen piece.

[Lee Stone]

Max Meyer should be closing right now IMO.

[Namaste]

Max Meyer should be closing right now IMO.

100%

We’d be 6 games over .500 if the Rays FO was running this team.

[Erick]

If Tanner Scott were a starter, he’d be 2022 Trevor Rogers.

[Nick]

Infuriating inning from Rogers. He’s clearly in his own head at this point. The stuff is still there.

[Namaste]

Trevor was really bad that inning but the swinging bunt single followed by the fly ball that was in the air for 7 seconds that wasn’t caught to start the inning didn’t help

[lou]

Not sure if any of you follow Aram Leighton, but he brought up this interesting point on Twitter:

“The Marlins almost have to make some trades at the deadline because I have no clue how they are going to open up 40-Man spots for their Rule 5 eligible prospects.

Bleday, Burdick, Conine, Johnston, Soriano, Hoeing, Leblanc and Simpson all candidates to be selected in Rule 5”

They have plenty of room. Not sure what the concern is here.

C - Stallings, Fortes, Henry (3)
IF - Anderson, Berti, Diaz, Jazz, Cooper, Rojas, Wendle (7)
OF - Bleday, Burdick, Garcia, Sanchez, Soler, _____* (6)
SP - Alcantara, Cabrera, Hernandez, Lopez, Luzardo, Meyer, Rogers (7)
RP - Bass, Bender, Bleier, Castano, Garrett, Okert, Pop, Poteet, Sixto, Scott, Soriano (11)
=34

* - A fucking CF already. They have to do this.

Fringe - Holloway, Nance, Sulser, Yacabonis, Devers, Williams, DLC, Jerar, Conine, Johnston, King, S. Reynolds, Nardi, Stewart
Remote Fringe - Hoeing, Leblanc and Simpson
DFA - Campbell, Head, Guenther, Hamilton
FA - Aguilar, Floro

They usually carry 1-2 extra pitchers, so this is likely keeping Holloway, Reynolds, Nardi, and Yacabonis/King/Stewart

And then take your pick Williams/Devers and DLC/Jerar/Conine/Johnston round out the hitters.

This isn't even close to a problem to me.

[lou]

100%

We’d be 6 games over .500 if the Rays FO was running this team.

This includes firing Don right - because they'd do that. And get a CF. Anyone.

Then I'd say..... probably yes.

[lou]

eeeh I think they just need better hitters, period. Sanchez has been unbelievably bad against lefties. Platoon Berti with him against lefties problem solved. Avisail Garcia is a career .811 OPS against lefties, currently sitting at .467 OPS this season. You think we're going to start platooning him? I doubt it. Garrett Cooper career .823 OPS against LHP, .686 this year. Jesus Aguilar .804 career OPS against LHP, .601 this year. Other than our young lefty hitters being incredibly bad against lefties so far this year, I think a lot of it you can chalk up to small sample size.

I agree they are under achieving, but it's the broken record - let's get a real CF over Aguilar and someone other than DLC who can hit lefties. These are easy fixes that should have been apparent day 1.

[fish16]

You perpetually overvalue the Marlins own prospects. Nothing about acquiring Laureano - a 3+ WAR player - for 2 1/2 years, a reliever with 4+ years of control, another reliever with 2+ years of control, and an infielder with 6+ years of control screams overpay if the Marlins are sending out call it five of their top 4-18 prospects or so. While keeping Eury/Cabrera/Meyer. This is over 15 years of service time you'd be trading for in my hypothetical. It's an underpay. Oakland would probably say no as we're hedging there and using Piscotty/Trivino to save them a few dollars.

A minor prospect for Robertson does not move the needle. That's the problem Neither does Josh Bell, because it is positional redundancy in a RENTAL (plus larger contenders will offer more). They need BIG and BOLD upgrades to go for it. They need a major CF upgrade, a reliever upgrade, and a lefty killer bench option. So they should do that - or be sellers and circle next year.

And you consistently overvalue other teams players. Your WAR projections are consistently wrong not only for this team but for other players on other teams. It's the main source of our disagreements on all these players. Kind of like how Bryan reynolds was a surefire 4+ WAR guy for years to come and he's at 1 WAR through half the season. Thats not worth the enormous haul of cost controlled prospects you wanted to give for him ON TOP OF the huge contract you need to give him. He's a good, not great player, and low payroll teams should not be trading a huge haul of top prospects for that impact. It's also kind of like how I said the stallings deal is ridiculous and you penciled him in for an automatic 2 war despite the fact that all his value came in pitch framing and he couldn't hit himself out of a wet paper bag. And you keep talking about CF upgrades being needed and bring up guys who have graded out bad defensively. Reynolds is a terrible defender in CF and Laureano has graded out negatively each of the last 2 years defensively according to FanGraphs.

The low payroll teams are able to compete in this sport because they make tremendous use of their cost controlled players and rarely pay any free agents or trade acquisitions huge amounts of money. They have a confined budget and get the most value out of whatever that budget is. The rays are amazing at developing players that are cheap for years and then spending money intelligently in free agency on short term, decent money deals to fill holes on a yearly basis. They did it with guys like Morton and are now doing it with guys like Kluber. The way to win as a small market team is with cost controlled guys providing huge value and sprinkling in smart free agents on shorter term deals, not dealing the huge value-producing prospects for good but not great players.

I overvalue the marlins prospects because the value they provide at the league minimum for years on a team that refuses and will clearly continue to refuse to spend money is more valuable than paying huge amounts (in both money and prospects) for guys who aren't stars. Bryan reynolds isn't a star, ramon laureano doesn't move the needle. I have no problem getting upgrades, and they are absolutely upgrades. I have a problem dealing huge amounts of top prospects for them and then paying them 10+ million or even signing them to huge extensions. Max Meyer in his team control years is a more valuable asset as a potential top of the rotation guy for the minimum for multiple years, specifically on the marlins, than an OF who puts up just good but not great numbers who you will have to trade multiple top prospects for AND then you have to give a huge long term extension.

Teams like the rays who compete with low payrolls win in the margins. They get the most possible value out of their limited monetary resources. The way baseball contracts are designed for their team control years, those assets are enormous in being able to compete with the huge payroll teams out there. The way the marlins need to do it is to hog their top prospects, deal from the mid levels of the system for upgrades, and then when they are ready spend money on free agents, not trading the top prospects for non-stars that they then have to pay like stars. Paying the price for Reynolds in terms of not only prospects but then signing him to an extension and allocating anywhere from 15-25% of your payroll on him is a great way to stay mired in mediocrity down here for years to come. He does not move the needle. And he's clearly not a CF defensively, so you still have that gaping hole defensively on your roster.

I have no problem getting laureano for a couple mid level prospects and trotting him out there for the next year and a half in CF until you figure out what you are going to do the years after. But you don't trade potential top of the rotation guys on the cusp of the big leagues for that. If they want a bleday or burdick or a fulton or prospects along those lines, sure, but you don't trade guys like Cabrera or Meyer or Sixto at the lowest possible value for him. Maybe for other cost controlled top prospects to shift the balance of talent in the organization, but not for non-stars who need to be paid soon.

[Lee Stone]

I would look seriously at a guy like Tyler O'Neill. Extremely fast and certainly capable of playing CF (although Cardinals have used him in LF) After a HUGE year in 2021, he has stumbled out of the gate this season. The Cards need for SP could make a deal possible.

[lou]

And you consistently overvalue other teams players. Your WAR projections are consistently wrong not only for this team but for other players on other teams. It's the main source of our disagreements on all these players. Kind of like how Bryan reynolds was a surefire 4+ WAR guy for years to come and he's at 1 WAR through half the season. Thats not worth the enormous haul of cost controlled prospects you wanted to give for him ON TOP OF the huge contract you need to give him. He's a good, not great player, and low payroll teams should not be trading a huge haul of top prospects for that impact. It's also kind of like how I said the stallings deal is ridiculous and you penciled him in for an automatic 2 war despite the fact that all his value came in pitch framing and he couldn't hit himself out of a wet paper bag. And you keep talking about CF upgrades being needed and bring up guys who have graded out bad defensively. Reynolds is a terrible defender in CF and Laureano has graded out negatively each of the last 2 years defensively according to FanGraphs.

The low payroll teams are able to compete in this sport because they make tremendous use of their cost controlled players and rarely pay any free agents or trade acquisitions huge amounts of money. They have a confined budget and get the most value out of whatever that budget is. The rays are amazing at developing players that are cheap for years and then spending money intelligently in free agency on short term, decent money deals to fill holes on a yearly basis. They did it with guys like Morton and are now doing it with guys like Kluber. The way to win as a small market team is with cost controlled guys providing huge value and sprinkling in smart free agents on shorter term deals, not dealing the huge value-producing prospects for good but not great players.

I overvalue the marlins prospects because the value they provide at the league minimum for years on a team that refuses and will clearly continue to refuse to spend money is more valuable than paying huge amounts (in both money and prospects) for guys who aren't stars. Bryan reynolds isn't a star, ramon laureano doesn't move the needle. I have no problem getting upgrades, and they are absolutely upgrades. I have a problem dealing huge amounts of top prospects for them and then paying them 10+ million or even signing them to huge extensions. Max Meyer in his team control years is a more valuable asset as a potential top of the rotation guy for the minimum for multiple years, specifically on the marlins, than an OF who puts up just good but not great numbers who you will have to trade multiple top prospects for AND then you have to give a huge long term extension.

Teams like the rays who compete with low payrolls win in the margins. They get the most possible value out of their limited monetary resources. The way baseball contracts are designed for their team control years, those assets are enormous in being able to compete with the huge payroll teams out there. The way the marlins need to do it is to hog their top prospects, deal from the mid levels of the system for upgrades, and then when they are ready spend money on free agents, not trading the top prospects for non-stars that they then have to pay like stars. Paying the price for Reynolds in terms of not only prospects but then signing him to an extension and allocating anywhere from 15-25% of your payroll on him is a great way to stay mired in mediocrity down here for years to come. He does not move the needle. And he's clearly not a CF defensively, so you still have that gaping hole defensively on your roster.

I have no problem getting laureano for a couple mid level prospects and trotting him out there for the next year and a half in CF until you figure out what you are going to do the years after. But you don't trade potential top of the rotation guys on the cusp of the big leagues for that. If they want a bleday or burdick or a fulton or prospects along those lines, sure, but you don't trade guys like Cabrera or Meyer or Sixto at the lowest possible value for him. Maybe for other cost controlled top prospects to shift the balance of talent in the organization, but not for non-stars who need to be paid soon.

There is so much I find incorrect here it is difficult to figure out where to start.

First, the continual trope of "but the Rays!" isn't an argument for keeping players and not spending. This is for two reasons. One, they are the only team that consistently does this as this is very hard and not a model to follow the outlier. This isn't sustainable absent near perfection. Saying this is how "low payroll teams" compete is insane - LOW PAYROLL TEAMS DON'T COMPETE(!). These teams aren't consistently winning absent a truly amazing outlier year! Tampa is the only one. Even Milwaukee is spending $30-40m more than the Marlins and that's Correa and a great reliever difference! Two, the goal isn't to get knocked out of the playoffs perpetually in the first round. That's the Rays upside. They absolutely get the most out of what they have - but also never win. The Marlins are a good series away from the same run differential right now, and that does matter. Being an efficiency champion isn't a thing. Surely, making the playoffs 33-50% of the time would be a vast improvement for the Marlins so if you want to say we have to start there great, but this isn't the end game I envision. My position is, you can't operate as a team just looking to be "cost-effective good" always. This is where you are at it seems. While rebuilding, sure. They've done a great job IMO up to the start of 2022 sans the Yelich trade to put them in the position to go for it. But you need to eventually get to "win the whole damn thing" good and the Marlins have -0- shot at doing this internally. Your best argument here is - let's just try to do this home grown and hit home run trades and try and turn middle/non-prospects and aging veterans into superstars. Let's never send out value to get value or really spend unless it's a super efficient contract. This is a mind boggling position which ends up constantly treading water. Big picture, this team needs at least two "Jayson Werth to the Nationals" type deals that are total overpays as that's the only way they are going to bridge the gap to catch up to Atlanta and the Mets. One is a FA (Swanson, Nimmo, Turner, Correa, Xander, etc.), and the other is likely an "over pay" trade where a FV50 guy or two is shot out for the plant the flag move. Considering they have Watson/Salas, it's likely starting with one of them as suggested as we all agree - the 3 big pitcher names are better.

Which brings us to two - trading for a great player. Bryan Reynolds has been on absolute fire May - .870 OPS which is 10th best among OF. He's playing at a 3.5+ WAR pace this year right now with a BABIP 40 points below his career average. Guys have bad months. He's a 4+ WAR player and had a bad month, and he has upside for more - See 2021. Laureano is more difficult with the PED suspension, but ultimately he is also playing at a 3 WAR pace (fangraphs project a 2.5-3 WAR over 500 PA) after being off for a long time. I think you need to ask yourself, what would Pablo cost via trade as Reynolds and Laureano are very arguable Pablo value wise. Reynolds a little more, Laureano a little less. And that’s this year, right now Pablo (who is on a 3+ WAR pace). I think you would LAUGH if some other team offered Watson and a collection of FV45/40+ guys like I suggested above for Pablo, and effectively Poteet (Puk), Burdick (Allen), Bleier (Trivino), and Aguilar (Piscotty). LAUGH. Laureano for a couple mid-level prospects like Fulton/Burdick, what? Is Pablo worth Fulton and Burdick/Bleday to you? I think that is stupid. Tell me again how I am over rating other team's players when the data backs this up? What I suggested above is - the Marlins try and overwhelm Oakland with 1 premium prospect and then numbers via their deep FV45/FV40+ group and take on dead salary (Piscotty) to try and entice them in a hail mary to try and get a guy like this. Please note, you saying I'd move Cabrera/Meyer for Laureano is false, but Sixto? Sure. What has he done? Eder? No, keep the best young MiLB lefty you have. Ultimately, 3 WAR players (Pablo!!!) are REALLY GOOD and if your idea is the team only should try and get floor high 4+/5 WAR players who are even better than Reynolds, well I hate to break it to you but they are rarely available and only about 35-50 of them perpetually exist. Many are cost controlled and unavailable, and many of them cost a lot of money. Much more than Reynolds and Laureano who make $3 and $7 million.

Third, you also continually miss the point with a CF - guys like Reynolds/Laureano can do it competently enough (Laureano probably a bit better) and their hit tool is great/good so it all nets out. Laureano is a SSS issue with defense and they are playing Pache in CF. Reynolds is definitely a part time LF/CF guy. You'd get Reynolds and play him in CF versus lefties and Sanchez, who has done a very fair job which is fantastic, against righties. That's it. It's that easy. And then pray for Burdick and Mesa Jr. in 2-3 years. This gets you into a situation - right now - where if one gets hurt, you aren't decimated with a lack of organizational depth. Sanchez goes down, it's a real problem. Berti has been a revelation this year, but he's not the longterm "2nd" CF option at all. This is all they need. I'd love Jim Edmonds out there too and would continually take shots at Brandon Marsh type guys (doesn't seem like that trade idea would have worked - again baseball is hard and it looks like I'd be wrong in trading for him) but what are the chances they find a guy like him? Everyone in baseball wants that prospect.

Fourth, so you know, the way to stay mired in mediocrity is to keep guys like Aguilar around and pay him just under 10% of your payroll, and then have AAAA players like DLC getting substantial PA not out of desperation. Paying guys like Reynolds/Laureano - who are CHEAP!!!!!! - aren't a payroll concern. They don't even make Aguilar money. Who cares if they cost some prospects when you get years of club control?

Lastly, I don't want to get into ancillary issues, but I wouldn't attack Fangraphs WAR projections when their writers get picked up as analysts for baseball FO jobs literally every year. Also if you remember, I said they overpaid for Stallings but ultimately, shrugged as it was still non elite-prospects. Stallings had a consistent 2+ WAR pace for 3 seasons, and now is 50 BABIP points below his average and he forgot how to play defense. This is a truly insane drop in production on both ends. But, I don't blame them for this one. Deals don't work out. This was still a solid trade - one Yankees fans hated they didn't get him if you remember - and you win more of these than you lose. It happens. See baseball is hard which is why everyone isn't the Rays. That's the thing here, the process of this trade was fine. I can accept bad results (see, Miguel Cabrera) as long as the trade makes sense. I hate how Miller/Maybin turned out, but it made sense. Things like Rodney, Latos, and Yelich (the deal you championed, remember?) are the ones that are dumb AF on paper and results and set you back. No one is advocating for those moves here.


From my perspective here - I think you have a philosophical obstacle in your thought process. I'm not saying you are dumb here by the way - but basically, I think the Marlins have been in a near two decade perpetual rebuild with no real path or vision. This is causing some internal bias to hold onto every prospect and get every ounce of value out of every cost controlled player as that's the only thing we've been talking about for way too long. I honestly get it. Trust me, I LOVE efficiency also. It's why I think we all agree I am obsessed with payroll and have been doing arbitration projections for fun for 20 years. For me, this thought process ship sailed at the end of 2021. They have the core players IMO - they just need these final 3-4 guys. Two of them need to be floor "Laureano" good. They *must* trade out at least one of their top 2-5 prospects (Eury is the only untouchable entire farm), and I'm going to say 5+ of their next 10-15 best guys and get longterm pieces to fit into this actual contending window. They probably could do a good 5 year run right now with the pitchers and Jazz. This *must* be combined with FA later (Nimmo? Swanson? Correa? A Pitcher and trade a different pitcher? We can debate who makes most sense here for sure). Ultimately, they don't need prospects with the amount of club control on the MLB roster right now and low payroll. This is the really important concept here. Really important. Who cares if the farm is bottom 10 (which it might not even dip that low with these trades!) 2023-2024 if you literally don't need to pull from it absent depth relievers, and you have 2 years to rebuild before you have to start worrying about internal replacements. The solution there is not to blow 13 straight 1st round picks as mentioned and spend on IFA. It's time to stop having low payroll and small market stockholm syndrome. It's time TO WIN, so this let's not keep treading water and oh wow, Lewin has a 1.4 WAR next year and cost league minimum that's great value. Who the fuck cares - go out and get at least two 3+ WAR veteran players, upgrade bullpen/bench, and give the pitchers the chance to win the whole damn thing. This moves the needle A LOT. They are a .500 team right now - with dramatic underperformances (Stallings, Rogers, Garcia), injuries (Luzardo, BA/Wendle for stretches), and haven't unleashed Meyer/Cabera yet. The only overachievers are likely Cooper and Berti so it's a net-gain coming soon more than likely. Getting some really legitimate guys right now for minors leaguers - and then adding Luzardo, Meyer, and Cabrera and maybe Stallings and Garcia getting their heads out of their asses is potentially an epic improvement. Maybe Soler is about to go on a tear like last year post all star? It's time to win some baseball games. They have relatively clawed out of the hole and 2 games under .500 in early July isn't excruciating. Get the reenforcements and spend to get them. 18 of your next 28 games are against Cincy, Pitt, Tex, and ChC. The rest are Philly/NYM. Make the moves now which you can absolutely afford prospect wise before the onslaught of August - Atl, double LAD series, SD, and Tampa. You need to win as much as possible and become a more cohesive team right now. And they can do this to win now and not sacrifice the future by getting guys with control. They don't need rentals unless Duvall/Jackson level deals (and that's a final piece not the main piece!). If they do nothing - this is just the continuing line that Bruce is cheap and sucks, and Ng, while handicapped by Bruce, is still doing a bad job with the gameboard in front of her as she clearly has prospects to move and some limited payroll to work with. To close - it is just maddening suggesting 4 year away Watson and secondary prospects to not win with Sandy, Pablo, and Jazz right now is a bad idea, when trading for guys with multiple years of control. No. Win games. Right now. Let's stop thinking this team has 88 win upside as-is. They don't and won't likely ever. Make major moves. Win games.

[lou]

I would look seriously at a guy like Tyler O'Neill. Extremely fast and certainly capable of playing CF (although Cardinals have used him in LF) After a HUGE year in 2021, he has stumbled out of the gate this season. The Cards need for SP could make a deal possible.

I agree they are a GREAT matchup for a SP trade.

I'd shoot for Gorman though with Cabrera/Okert/Hernandez/Wendle sort of thing (other FV40 prospects coming back to the Marlins), and then make a separate trade for a CF, lefty reliever, and backup SS elsewhere (cough laureano, n. allen (lefty killer!!!), and puk).

I mention because Gorman has Arenado/Goldschmit/Walker longterm obstacles, with Donovan/Edman able to kick in over the IF, and the Cardinals OF is relatively set. They don't have good OF prospect coming at all. It'll be year. Yepez might be the best and he doesn't really have ideal upside. Trading one of the 3 (with Bader and Carlson) causes a hole for them, unlike Gorman where they have bodies for the IF/DH. Same problem with the Marlins here - you need multiple guys able to handle CF competently enough.

It's Gorman. I think they'd do it for Cabrera/Meyer, Wendle, and depth arms like Okert/Hernandez, with kicking back some low level prospects to the Marlins. Makes sense for everyone assuming the Marlins could pull off another trade or two to replace Wendle and Okert which I think is very very possible (if you even need a lefty as Castano/Garrett could probably move to the pen). The CF is more difficult but it is what it is there.