2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

am i the only one who wants no part of castellanos for the price and length he will inevitably receive? Guy is treated as a superstar bat but he's really not close to that. Good bat but he is not like this star player, especially considering he's ideally a DH. Im happy they arent going that route. he's a low to mid .800s OPS guy to me, not some cant miss sure fire .900 OPS type guy that you can consistently rely on as a star level talent. Im completely ok with not giving him 20 million + with 4+ years. he was great last year but he also played in a good lineup in probably the best hitting ball park in baseball. Needless to say neither of those would be the situation here. He is ideally a 2nd or 3rd best hitter on a great team who can afford to pay that kind of guy as a luxury. I have no problem bowing out on him.

If we're going after a kind of guy like that who is best suited as a DH, id prefer schwarber. But that's dependent on what schwarber's market becomes given the reported crazy interest in him. Regardless, none of these guys we are reportedly interested in are guys that I would give more than 3 years to. Anything more than 3 years for any of these guys and I just hit the trade market and go after a top prospect on the cusp of the big leagues or just starting their career like a Marsh.

[gustavopim]

@AramLeighton8
The backwards part of the Jorge Soler thing is the Marlins could have just kept Adam Duvall who is under control for this coming season. They’re incredibly similar offensively and Duvall is a much better defender.

Going from Marte and Duvall to Garcia and Soler and people expect me to believe this is a near 80 win team

[fish16]

@AramLeighton8
The backwards part of the Jorge Soler thing is the Marlins could have just kept Adam Duvall who is under control for this coming season. They’re incredibly similar offensively and Duvall is a much better defender.

Going from Marte and Duvall to Garcia and Soler and people expect me to believe this is a near 80 win team

Adam duvall is a worse player than Soler and can people stop acting like he was under a guaranteed contract for 2022? He had a mutual option which essentially meant he could opt out unilaterally for this year. He had a 7 million mutual option which came with a 3 million buyout if it wasn't exercised. Because he declined the option he now goes to arbitration where he is projected to get 9-10 million for this year. He isn't worth that. He wasn't exercising that option for this year which is why they traded him. He also cant get on base to save his life. His numbers look ok to end the year because he goes on 3-4 hot streaks that make up the vast majority of his production yearly. The rest of the year he slumps. He isn't consistent enough.

[Nick]

Adam duvall is a worse player than Soler and can people stop acting like he was under a guaranteed contract for 2022? He had a mutual option which essentially meant he could opt out unilaterally for this year. He had a 7 million mutual option which came with a 3 million buyout if it wasn't exercised. Because he declined the option he now goes to arbitration where he is projected to get 9-10 million for this year. He isn't worth that. He wasn't exercising that option for this year which is why they traded him. He also cant get on base to save his life. His numbers look ok to end the year because he goes on 3-4 hot streaks that make up the vast majority of his production yearly. The rest of the year he slumps. He isn't consistent enough.

I think you aren't taking into consideration Duvall is a gold glove caliber OF and Soler is basically a DH.

[lou]

@AramLeighton8
The backwards part of the Jorge Soler thing is the Marlins could have just kept Adam Duvall who is under control for this coming season. They’re incredibly similar offensively and Duvall is a much better defender.

Going from Marte and Duvall to Garcia and Soler and people expect me to believe this is a near 80 win team

It's definitely a near 80 win team today already. A CF, and 2-3 upgrades (DH and RP seem to be most mentioned) get them over .500, and then multiple breakouts/injury luck dictate a contender.

Which is where we keep saying why not Correa? Bryant? They can afford these guys with a bottom third payroll. Let's not be bottom THREE.

[fish16]

I think you aren't taking into consideration Duvall is a gold glove caliber OF and Soler is basically a DH.

Duvall graded out negatively defensively in 2020, 2019, and 2017 and is now 33. Last year he had a 2.4 WAR which is obviously good, but the 3 previous years it was .7, .5, and .2. He's a guy whose production you can find for a lot less than 10 million. Plus what they needed was hitting, and his low OBP, all or nothing, streaky bat was not what they needed, especially at 10 million. If they didn't trade him at the deadline they would have either non-tendered him or traded him for peanuts this offseason.

[Nick]

Duvall graded out negatively defensively in 2020, 2019, and 2017 and is now 33. Last year he had a 2.4 WAR which is obviously good, but the 3 previous years it was .7, .5, and .2. He's a guy whose production you can find for a lot less than 10 million. Plus what they needed was hitting, and his low OBP, all or nothing, streaky bat was not what they needed, especially at 10 million. If they didn't trade him at the deadline they would have either non-tendered him or traded him for peanuts this offseason.

Ok, but we also were only paying him $3 million in 2021. Let's say he gets his $9.5 million in arbitration. 2 years $12.5 million for Adam Duvall is more than fair, and I guarantee less than what we'll be giving Soler if we end up getting him.

[Nick]

The Duvall signing was classic Loria era shit. Pay a guy almost nothing the first year and then deal him before you have to pay him any real money.

[fish16]

Ok, but we also were only paying him $3 million in 2021. Let's say he gets his $9.5 million in arbitration. 2 years $12.5 million for Adam Duvall is more than fair, and I guarantee less than what we'll be giving Soler if we end up getting him.

once last year past you look at it as a 1 year 9 million deal. For a bigger market team is he worth that, sure. For us is it worth it as a small market team who if we have an 80 million dollar payroll it would be big news? To me I say no. I also don't love soler due to his wild swings in production so I'm not exactly advocating for us to sign him to a big long term deal, I'm just saying I wouldn't spend 1/8th of our payroll on Adam duvall if I'm given the option.

[Namaste]

Pirates have a really good reliever (Bednar). What about this:

Watson/Eury(sorry)/Burdick/DLC/Pop/Outside top 20 prospect for Reynolds and Bednar. 6-2 move, obviously the back 3 guys don't matter for Marlins and good flyers. You opt for Meyer over Eury here as Meyer helps right now (midseason, etc.) and you don't give AF about longterm pitching when Eury may contribute in 3 years with Sandy, Cabrera, Meyer, Fulton, Eder, McCambley for 6, Rogers, Luzardo, Sixto, Bednar, and Bender for 5, and Pablo and Hernandez for 3. That could literally be the entire staff in 2025 you know?

Then how about STILL sign Kenley for 1-2 years and unleash Kenley, Bednar, Bender, Cabrera, Head/Yacobonis/Holloway, Bleier, Okert, and __________

The ______ is trading FLORO (clears money for all of this, low control, coming off best season and still cheap), Cooper/Aguilar (clear more money), and prospects for a LEFTY.

Then sign Rizzo.

Then sign a defensive first backup CF, or ideally absorb Keirmaier or A. Hicks(NYY paying some here) to have a super premium 4th OF:

Stallings, Fortes/Jackson
Rizzo, Aguilar/Cooper
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, Wendle
Sanchez
B. Reynolds, "Defense CF"
Garcia

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Hernandez, Luzardo
Kenley, Bednar, Bender, Cabrera, Head
Bleier, Okert, "Lefty For Floro"

That team is awesome and Sixto, Meyer, and Bleday may push roles midseason, with some legitimate backup AAA guys (Lewin, Isan, Jackson/Fortes, Neidert, Garrett, Holloway, Poteet, etc.) that all have fair amount of upside.


They got so many options here. That team is $90 without Aguilar, $95 without Cooper, + the CF (which might be club controlled.

Or ditch Kenley, keep Floro, and closer to $80

Or ditch Rizzo, keep Aguilar and Cooper, and also closer to $80. Both of those work also

Excellent post as usual, Lou.

I’m inclined to not deal Eury (as are Mish, Passan and evidently Kim Ng)

What if we dealt Watson, Meyer, Cabrera and Anderson for Reynolds and Bednar?

[Nick]

Excellent post as usual, Lou.

I’m inclined to not deal Eury (as are Mish, Passan and evidently Kim Ng)

What if we dealt Watson, Meyer, Cabrera and Anderson for Reynolds and Bednar?

I don’t think I’d be willing to give up both Meyer and Cabrera. Meyer, Watson, Fulton and Bleday would be as much as I’d give up. That’s a damn good haul for Reynolds.

[fish16]

I don’t think I’d be willing to give up both Meyer and Cabrera. Meyer, Watson, Fulton and Bleday would be as much as I’d give up. That’s a damn good haul for Reynolds.

Meyer Cabrera and Watson would be a ridiculous overpay for reynolds. That’s two top of the rotation top 50 or so prospects in baseball who are big league ready and the guy who could have been the number 1 pick in last years draft if it was based on pure talent and not signing bonus demands who will likely be a top 25 prospect by years end.

reynolds is not 3 top 50 prospect good. Id give one of Meyer or Watson, bleday or burdick, Fulton, and then two of the lower level short shops like salas and Lewis. Just because you have prospect depth doesn’t mean you have to blow it and give too much value to address a need

[lou]

Excellent post as usual, Lou.

I’m inclined to not deal Eury (as are Mish, Passan and evidently Kim Ng)

What if we dealt Watson, Meyer, Cabrera and Anderson for Reynolds and Bednar?

That's too much.

I think it's two of Watson, Meyer, Cabrera, and Eury, and then Bleday/Burdick/Salas/Eder/Fulton as a third piece. Give them some throw-ins we don't care about and you get Reynolds and Bednar for sure.

I think you do Meyer, Eury, Burdick, DLC, Bass (fuck them eat the money), and something like Fitterer, Jerar, Conine, etc.

[lou]

Meyer Cabrera and Watson would be a ridiculous overpay for reynolds. That’s two top of the rotation top 50 or so prospects in baseball who are big league ready and the guy who could have been the number 1 pick in last years draft if it was based on pure talent and not signing bonus demands who will likely be a top 25 prospect by years end.

reynolds is not 3 top 50 prospect good. Id give one of Meyer or Watson, bleday or burdick, Fulton, and then two of the lower level short shops like salas and Lewis. Just because you have prospect depth doesn’t mean you have to blow it and give too much value to address a need

I can get behind Meyer/Watson, Bleday/Burdick, Salas, Fulton, and Lewis. That is A LOT but banking on Eury over Salas, Fulton, and I. Lewis I can agree with. Salas is virtually top 100 so he is "Isan Diaz" ish prospect trade wise. A great third piece. Fulton and Lewis smoke "Yamamoto".

[lou]

I don’t think I’d be willing to give up both Meyer and Cabrera. Meyer, Watson, Fulton and Bleday would be as much as I’d give up. That’s a damn good haul for Reynolds.

Agreed. You get Bednar with that haul for sure.