Tweet
Today is the 81st game of the season, meaning that the season is officially half way done. It's time to grade the Marlins for the first half of the season.
Starting Pitching: B+
You can be disappointed with a lot on this team, but this is one area where you'll find little reason to complain. Last season, ten different pitchers started a game for the Marlins. In 2008, eleven did. This year, however, the Marlins have not had anyone outside of their original starting rotation begin a game for them. Marlins starters have had a 59% quality start rate, good enough to be tied for 4th in the majors. Statistically, Josh Johnson has been the best pitcher in the major leagues. Not one of the best. THE best. After Ubaldo Jimenez's last three starts, Johnson is shining in every area except wins (but we'll get to that later). He leads the majors - in what is being called the "Year of the Pitcher," no less, with a 1.82 ERA. The next closest is Jamie Garcia, whose 2.10 ERA is nearly 30 points higher. He's tied with Mat Latos for the second-best WHIP in the majors, behind Seattle's Cliff Lee, who forgot how to walk guys (if he keeps it up, Lee will set a record for the best K:BB ratio in history as he's only walked 5 hitters on the year. Five. Total. Walks.).
Behind Johnson, the rotation has been relatively solid. Anibal Sanchez has turned in a better-than-expected 3.35 ERA thus far. Chris Volstad sits at a 4.45 ERA and has seemingly cut down on his home runs. And Nate Robertson, like him or hate him, has been serviceable as a fifth starter. Considering he was basically acquired for free and is the lone lefty in the rotation, a sub-5 ERA isn't all that bad, and with the Marlins dropping out of contention, he may be a good trade chip.
But the big disappointment - and what keeps the starting pitching from being an "A" in my eyes - is Ricky Nolasco. Ricky pulled a lot of crap early last year, got demoted, came back and looked better than he ever had. I had him picked to have a better season than Johnson. Some writers picked him, pre-season, to be an All-Star. Most people agreed that he had some terribly bad luck in 2009 - his strand rate was 61%, the worst for a starter with 170+ innings since 2004. So people were expecting huge things, and thus far, we haven't gotten them.
Last year, even amid the rough season, he struck out 9.49 batters per 9 IP. But his previous career high in the majors was 7.88 and his career rate is 7.80. So even though this year's 7.17 is a little low, maybe that's closer to what he is than his 9.49 rate last year. His BB/9 is down a good amount. But what's really doing him in is the home runs. He's given up 19 on the year. He gave up 23 last year. If Rick Vandenhurk or some other Marlins replacement starter were putting up these numbers, we might be okay with them. But it's Nolasco, and we expected much more.
Relief Pitching: D
This should come as no surprise, unless you're shocked I haven't given them an F. The Marlins have used seventeen (!) relievers so far this year, and they're nowhere close to being done. Talk radio shows have come up with nicknames for the bullpen (my personal favorite: One Flew Over the Right Field Fence).
Some of the awful, awful stats: The Marlins lead the league in Wins Lost, which measures how many times a starting pitcher has left a game in position for a win, only to have the game blown by the bullpen (if not for the bullpen, Josh Johnson would easily have double-digit wins and would have strong consideration to start the All-Star Game). The Marlins are 26th in the majors with a 58% save percentage and, on a related note, second in the majors in blown saves with 13. The team is tied for dead last in relief wins (6) and has the fifth most losses in relief.
Two things prevent me from doling out an F here: Leo Nunez and Clay Hensley. Nunez has blown saves in his last two games and has seen his ERA rise over a point in those two games. Before those hiccups, Nunez had an ERA of 2.27 and looked like one of the more solid closers in the league. His ERA sits at 3.31 now and he's got 5 blown saves, but he also has 16 converted saves and a 1.13 WHIP. He looks to be a quality option at closer. Clay Hensley was injured for 3 weeks, but has been the team's most effective reliever. He was poised to be the fifth starter until the Marlins acquired Robertson right before the season, and he has transitioned nicely to the bullpen, posting a 2.36 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 8 holds.
Starting Lineup: B
I had to think long and hard about this grade, and I was able to rationalize every grade from B+ to C-. But as far as I'm concerned, this lineup is only slightly above average.
Chris Coghlan got off to an abysmal start, then caught fire to raise his numbers to respectability. While he isn't a typical leadoff guy, his OBP is near .350 and he has 9 stolen bases, more than all of last year. His OPS still sits at .762, a tad disappointing. Gaby Sanchez has been a welcome surprise to most. He is leading the team in batting average at .309 and his OBP is just 6 points lower than team-leader Hanley Ramirez. With 9 home runs and 38 RBI, he is suddenly beginning to make a strong case for Rookie of the Year honors with Jason Heyward now injured.
Hanley Ramirez, with an OPS of .885, is having a down year only by his standards. It would be his first sub-.940 OPS since his rookie year. He's hitting under .300 but is on pace for more than 30 steals and 100 RBI. And, oh yeah, he's going to start the All-Star Game. Ho hum.
Jorge Cantu is inexplicably still cleaning up. He was leading the NL in RBI for a while, which must be the reason why. His slashline numbers are only a tick below his career rates, and he's on pace for more than 20 homers and 100 RBI, so he hasn't been terribly disappointing. He just isn't a cleanup hitter and never has been. But I imagine he'll stick there as long as the front office overvalues RBI.
Dan Uggla is just doing his thing. He looks like he's going to hit 30 homers again, strike out 150 times again, and OPS just over .800 again. Nothing out of the ordinary with him. Cody Ross is having yet another solid season, and he seems likely to be one of the first people to get traded if the front office decides to be sellers. The power is down some, but he's walking more and has already stolen a career-high 8 bases.
Since John Baker's injury, Ronny Paulino has become the starting catcher, and he's truly responded to the call. He's batting .299 - a tick ahead of Hanley Ramirez - and is OPSing .750, more than respectable for someone who was only used vs. left-handed pitchers for the last few years. Today (Sunday, July 4th) will be his first game off in 25 games.
The earlier part of the year saw Cameron Maybin flounder yet again. We were told he was ready this time, but OPSed just .631 over his nearly-200 at bats, and looked lost at times in center field. Then the trumpets sounded and Mike Stanton descended from Jacksonville. But The Savior has struggled immensely, perhaps even more than Maybin had. At just 20 years old, he's OPSing .576 over 82 at bats, and while it's a small sample size, patience among fans seems to be wearing thin. The defense hasn't looked great either; when he caught a foul ball over the wall with a runner on third against San Diego, he allowed the runner to score, which ultimately was the deciding run and gave Josh Johnson a loss.
The Bench: F
Here is one area I'm not afraid to give an F. The bench is lead by token veteran Wes Helms, who has decent overall numbers, most of which have come as a starter. You could do worse than him on your bench. Past that, it's rough. Maybin sat on the bench for a week without getting an at bat. Baker's injury has forced Brett Hayes and his .190/.292/.238 slash line onto the bench. Brett Carroll managed a .640 OPS to go along with his .197 batting average before his demotion. At .468 and .460, respectively, Mike Lamb (don't get me started) and Brian Barden have a lower OPS than Anibal Sanchez (.510) and Nate Robertson (.477) - and remember, Robertson's been in the American League for the last seven years. Emilio Bonifacio is hitting .188 - three singles, no walks. Bryan Petersen mustered 1 hit in his 16 at bats.
Front Office/Management: D
I struggled between this grade and an F. They completely botched the Fredi Gonzalez firing, and they made fools of themselves and the team by subsequently botching the Bobby Valentine hiring. They couldn't possibly have really thought the chances of winning are better with a minor league staff running a major league team. Things are so bad first base Dave Collins unexpectedly quit. They failed to sign any decent bullpen arms or bench players, contributing to the team's two glaring weaknesses. And then there are those stupid vuvuzelas someone decided would be a great idea to give out to fans.
BUT. And this is a big but (which is why it's in capitals). They didn't freak out when Coghlan was hitting .195 after one month and .227 after two months. They didn't hand Emilio Bonifacio a roster spot. They weren't afraid to call up Mike Stanton when the time presented itself. They locked up Johnson in the offseason - can you imagine the trade rumors that would be flying right now if they hadn't? (How good does that contract look right now?) They brought Uggla back. And after screwing up the Bobby V saga, they decided to commit to Edwin Rodriguez as manager rather than letting the managerial search preoccupy the team.
Team Overall GPA: C- (1.67)
This team, as a whole, is slightly below average. There are bright spots. There are really dark spots. There's a whole lot of junk in between. The good news is that a lot has gone wrong this year. I know that doesn't sound like good news, but it means that things shouldn't get that much worse this year. And when the core of this team returns in the future (likely sans Uggla, Cantu and Ross), things should be a whole lot brighter.
Starting Pitching: B+
You can be disappointed with a lot on this team, but this is one area where you'll find little reason to complain. Last season, ten different pitchers started a game for the Marlins. In 2008, eleven did. This year, however, the Marlins have not had anyone outside of their original starting rotation begin a game for them. Marlins starters have had a 59% quality start rate, good enough to be tied for 4th in the majors. Statistically, Josh Johnson has been the best pitcher in the major leagues. Not one of the best. THE best. After Ubaldo Jimenez's last three starts, Johnson is shining in every area except wins (but we'll get to that later). He leads the majors - in what is being called the "Year of the Pitcher," no less, with a 1.82 ERA. The next closest is Jamie Garcia, whose 2.10 ERA is nearly 30 points higher. He's tied with Mat Latos for the second-best WHIP in the majors, behind Seattle's Cliff Lee, who forgot how to walk guys (if he keeps it up, Lee will set a record for the best K:BB ratio in history as he's only walked 5 hitters on the year. Five. Total. Walks.).
Behind Johnson, the rotation has been relatively solid. Anibal Sanchez has turned in a better-than-expected 3.35 ERA thus far. Chris Volstad sits at a 4.45 ERA and has seemingly cut down on his home runs. And Nate Robertson, like him or hate him, has been serviceable as a fifth starter. Considering he was basically acquired for free and is the lone lefty in the rotation, a sub-5 ERA isn't all that bad, and with the Marlins dropping out of contention, he may be a good trade chip.
But the big disappointment - and what keeps the starting pitching from being an "A" in my eyes - is Ricky Nolasco. Ricky pulled a lot of crap early last year, got demoted, came back and looked better than he ever had. I had him picked to have a better season than Johnson. Some writers picked him, pre-season, to be an All-Star. Most people agreed that he had some terribly bad luck in 2009 - his strand rate was 61%, the worst for a starter with 170+ innings since 2004. So people were expecting huge things, and thus far, we haven't gotten them.
Last year, even amid the rough season, he struck out 9.49 batters per 9 IP. But his previous career high in the majors was 7.88 and his career rate is 7.80. So even though this year's 7.17 is a little low, maybe that's closer to what he is than his 9.49 rate last year. His BB/9 is down a good amount. But what's really doing him in is the home runs. He's given up 19 on the year. He gave up 23 last year. If Rick Vandenhurk or some other Marlins replacement starter were putting up these numbers, we might be okay with them. But it's Nolasco, and we expected much more.
Relief Pitching: D
This should come as no surprise, unless you're shocked I haven't given them an F. The Marlins have used seventeen (!) relievers so far this year, and they're nowhere close to being done. Talk radio shows have come up with nicknames for the bullpen (my personal favorite: One Flew Over the Right Field Fence).
Some of the awful, awful stats: The Marlins lead the league in Wins Lost, which measures how many times a starting pitcher has left a game in position for a win, only to have the game blown by the bullpen (if not for the bullpen, Josh Johnson would easily have double-digit wins and would have strong consideration to start the All-Star Game). The Marlins are 26th in the majors with a 58% save percentage and, on a related note, second in the majors in blown saves with 13. The team is tied for dead last in relief wins (6) and has the fifth most losses in relief.
Two things prevent me from doling out an F here: Leo Nunez and Clay Hensley. Nunez has blown saves in his last two games and has seen his ERA rise over a point in those two games. Before those hiccups, Nunez had an ERA of 2.27 and looked like one of the more solid closers in the league. His ERA sits at 3.31 now and he's got 5 blown saves, but he also has 16 converted saves and a 1.13 WHIP. He looks to be a quality option at closer. Clay Hensley was injured for 3 weeks, but has been the team's most effective reliever. He was poised to be the fifth starter until the Marlins acquired Robertson right before the season, and he has transitioned nicely to the bullpen, posting a 2.36 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 8 holds.
Starting Lineup: B
I had to think long and hard about this grade, and I was able to rationalize every grade from B+ to C-. But as far as I'm concerned, this lineup is only slightly above average.
Chris Coghlan got off to an abysmal start, then caught fire to raise his numbers to respectability. While he isn't a typical leadoff guy, his OBP is near .350 and he has 9 stolen bases, more than all of last year. His OPS still sits at .762, a tad disappointing. Gaby Sanchez has been a welcome surprise to most. He is leading the team in batting average at .309 and his OBP is just 6 points lower than team-leader Hanley Ramirez. With 9 home runs and 38 RBI, he is suddenly beginning to make a strong case for Rookie of the Year honors with Jason Heyward now injured.
Hanley Ramirez, with an OPS of .885, is having a down year only by his standards. It would be his first sub-.940 OPS since his rookie year. He's hitting under .300 but is on pace for more than 30 steals and 100 RBI. And, oh yeah, he's going to start the All-Star Game. Ho hum.
Jorge Cantu is inexplicably still cleaning up. He was leading the NL in RBI for a while, which must be the reason why. His slashline numbers are only a tick below his career rates, and he's on pace for more than 20 homers and 100 RBI, so he hasn't been terribly disappointing. He just isn't a cleanup hitter and never has been. But I imagine he'll stick there as long as the front office overvalues RBI.
Dan Uggla is just doing his thing. He looks like he's going to hit 30 homers again, strike out 150 times again, and OPS just over .800 again. Nothing out of the ordinary with him. Cody Ross is having yet another solid season, and he seems likely to be one of the first people to get traded if the front office decides to be sellers. The power is down some, but he's walking more and has already stolen a career-high 8 bases.
Since John Baker's injury, Ronny Paulino has become the starting catcher, and he's truly responded to the call. He's batting .299 - a tick ahead of Hanley Ramirez - and is OPSing .750, more than respectable for someone who was only used vs. left-handed pitchers for the last few years. Today (Sunday, July 4th) will be his first game off in 25 games.
The earlier part of the year saw Cameron Maybin flounder yet again. We were told he was ready this time, but OPSed just .631 over his nearly-200 at bats, and looked lost at times in center field. Then the trumpets sounded and Mike Stanton descended from Jacksonville. But The Savior has struggled immensely, perhaps even more than Maybin had. At just 20 years old, he's OPSing .576 over 82 at bats, and while it's a small sample size, patience among fans seems to be wearing thin. The defense hasn't looked great either; when he caught a foul ball over the wall with a runner on third against San Diego, he allowed the runner to score, which ultimately was the deciding run and gave Josh Johnson a loss.
The Bench: F
Here is one area I'm not afraid to give an F. The bench is lead by token veteran Wes Helms, who has decent overall numbers, most of which have come as a starter. You could do worse than him on your bench. Past that, it's rough. Maybin sat on the bench for a week without getting an at bat. Baker's injury has forced Brett Hayes and his .190/.292/.238 slash line onto the bench. Brett Carroll managed a .640 OPS to go along with his .197 batting average before his demotion. At .468 and .460, respectively, Mike Lamb (don't get me started) and Brian Barden have a lower OPS than Anibal Sanchez (.510) and Nate Robertson (.477) - and remember, Robertson's been in the American League for the last seven years. Emilio Bonifacio is hitting .188 - three singles, no walks. Bryan Petersen mustered 1 hit in his 16 at bats.
Front Office/Management: D
I struggled between this grade and an F. They completely botched the Fredi Gonzalez firing, and they made fools of themselves and the team by subsequently botching the Bobby Valentine hiring. They couldn't possibly have really thought the chances of winning are better with a minor league staff running a major league team. Things are so bad first base Dave Collins unexpectedly quit. They failed to sign any decent bullpen arms or bench players, contributing to the team's two glaring weaknesses. And then there are those stupid vuvuzelas someone decided would be a great idea to give out to fans.
BUT. And this is a big but (which is why it's in capitals). They didn't freak out when Coghlan was hitting .195 after one month and .227 after two months. They didn't hand Emilio Bonifacio a roster spot. They weren't afraid to call up Mike Stanton when the time presented itself. They locked up Johnson in the offseason - can you imagine the trade rumors that would be flying right now if they hadn't? (How good does that contract look right now?) They brought Uggla back. And after screwing up the Bobby V saga, they decided to commit to Edwin Rodriguez as manager rather than letting the managerial search preoccupy the team.
Team Overall GPA: C- (1.67)
This team, as a whole, is slightly below average. There are bright spots. There are really dark spots. There's a whole lot of junk in between. The good news is that a lot has gone wrong this year. I know that doesn't sound like good news, but it means that things shouldn't get that much worse this year. And when the core of this team returns in the future (likely sans Uggla, Cantu and Ross), things should be a whole lot brighter.