2023 Marlins Minors

[Lee Stone]

Barry Jackson mentioned Monteverde. There is a 0% chance Barry Jackson knows about a random Marlins arm unless someone in the organization mentioned it to him.

Tick up the excitement from a 2 to a 4 (out of 10) for me. I still want to know what the slider is tracking as.

You are a tough grader .... 4 out of 10 for Monteverde. That's a bit stingy for the pitcher with the best stats in all of the minor leagues. He gets tremendous swing and miss numbers and contact he does give up is extremely weak.

[lou]

You are a tough grader .... 4 out of 10 for Monteverde. That's a bit stingy for the pitcher with the best stats in all of the minor leagues. He gets tremendous swing and miss numbers and contact he does give up is extremely weak.

He's barely a top 30 prospect in the Marlins middle of the pack farm system. A 25 year old dominating AA. Where's the slider scouting report? Is that above average, or is he just dominating on control?

[Nick]

From the little I saw of him in his outing this week, I will say Monteverde's fastball has a lot of movement to it, which I think is a big key to his success so far this year, kinda reminded me of a left-handed Dylan Floro.

[Lee Stone]

He's barely a top 30 prospect in the Marlins middle of the pack farm system. A 25 year old dominating AA. Where's the slider scouting report? Is that above average, or is he just dominating on control?

So, you're saying that Monteverde's actual performance is less reflective of his ability than the prospect lists you have read?

[lou]

From the little I saw of him in his outing this week, I will say Monteverde's fastball has a lot of movement to it, which I think is a big key to his success so far this year, kinda reminded me of a left-handed Dylan Floro.

Sure, the FB can be an above average pitch versus the slider, but given the rough scouting grades are a FV55 change, FV50 slider, FV40 FB, and FV55 control (which ends up as a FV40 overall which I get because pitchers need fastballs to succeed), it seems like that slider has the best chance of success of turning him into something more. This is the best scouting report we have (MLB) - A classic crafty left-hander, Monteverde keeps hitters off balance by changing speeds and working both sides of the plate. He can't overwhelm hitters with his stuff but helps his cause by pounding the strike zone and commanding his arsenal well. He comes with a low ceiling but a high floor as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter or multi-inning reliever.

Sounds like a pitch to contact guy and a multi inning reliever. I'm just saying, Lee moving him to the Eury/Eder level is insane, when he isn't even moving to the Fulton level, nor the Miller and Sixto level, and I'm not putting him next to Nardi, Soriano, Simpson, Enright, or Millbrandt yet. Amazing start to the year, but saying he is good because he has the best stats in the minors is a bit outside.

[Nick]

Sure, the FB can be an above average pitch versus the slider, but given the rough scouting grades are a FV55 change, FV50 slider, FV40 FB, and FV55 control (which ends up as a FV40 overall which I get because pitchers need fastballs to succeed), it seems like that slider has the best chance of success of turning him into something more. This is the best scouting report we have (MLB) - A classic crafty left-hander, Monteverde keeps hitters off balance by changing speeds and working both sides of the plate. He can't overwhelm hitters with his stuff but helps his cause by pounding the strike zone and commanding his arsenal well. He comes with a low ceiling but a high floor as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter or multi-inning reliever.

Sounds like a pitch to contact guy and a multi inning reliever. I'm just saying, Lee moving him to the Eury/Eder level is insane, when he isn't even moving to the Fulton level, nor the Miller and Sixto level, and I'm not putting him next to Nardi, Soriano, Simpson, Enright, or Millbrandt yet. Amazing start to the year, but saying he is good because he has the best stats in the minors is a bit outside.

Has he really though? We know Lee's schtick by now. He gets really excited by the guy who is doing really well at the moment, then moves on to his next flavor of the month. Why are we working so hard to discount Monteverde, just because Lee is talking him up right now?

[lou]

So, you're saying that Monteverde's actual performance is less reflective of his ability than the prospect lists you have read?

This is the constant, constant, comment Lee.

When you get to the MLB level, professional hitters aren't going to be as impressed with good command as against 21-24 year old AA guys. How the stuff translates as you move up levels matter and we have so many examples of control freaks with moderate stuff (see Palacious now) starting to get drilled when they move up.

Look at Yusmiero Petit's A/AA stats to talk about former Marlins (https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/45589/). The guy was a super duper ace and no doubt you would have called him the next Greg Maddux in 05. And then what happened? He turned into a professional reliever and he didn't really translate to the MLB level until he was 28. This is probably the Monteverde comp without having a second major pitch (hence, where is the slider scouting report!!!). A potential plus longman.

Hermida just let every A-hole walk him in AA and he sat on changeups and no one realized he couldn't hit fastballs as he was so good just walking and hitting AA quality changeups. Guys can look great and then be literally nothing. And Hermida was an exceptionally better prospect than Monteverde ever will be.

How you accrue the stats is important. Control and changeups aren't the kiss of death if those are Monteverde's two best attributes, but he *will* need a 2nd above average offering to survive as a reliever, let alone a SP. As said, there is a lot to like in him ascending as a prospect and he is doing an awesome job, but even a cursory look below the hood shows a .161 BABIP and 0% HR rate. It's a SSS size so this will all normalize. Maybe he jumps from Marlins 30-35th best prospect to 20th-25th range. Eury/Eder are night and day better prospects. It's not remotely close.

[lou]

Has he really though? We know Lee's schtick by now. He gets really excited by the guy who is doing really well at the moment, then moves on to his next flavor of the month. Why are we working so hard to discount Monteverde, just because Lee is talking him up right now?

Because we want reasonable takes. Monteverde is doing great and I am hopeful he does rise to a legit future bullpen inventory arm, but he's not Zac Gallen

[Lee Stone]

monteverde accrues his stats by walking fewer than anybody, striking out more than anybody, and giving up weaker contact than anybody. To me, that's a pretty good resume. With a decent start this week, he will become the minor league pitcher of the month. The bullpen would be a waste of time with him. He's proving to be dependable for more innings than any other starter too.

[Nick]

Because we want reasonable takes. Monteverde is doing great and I am hopeful he does rise to a legit future bullpen inventory arm, but he's not Zac Gallen

I gave up on that long ago. Not like he just showed up. He's been here 5 years.

Some would say that spouting the subjective scouting rankings of one website like they're gospel is equally ridiculous. Or discounting a guy based on one scouting report from before a guy was drafted for that matter.

[lou]

monteverde accrues his stats by walking fewer than anybody, striking out more than anybody, and giving up weaker contact than anybody. To me, that's a pretty good resume. With a decent start this week, he will become the minor league pitcher of the month.

Did you mean to type Ben Meyer 2017 here? Or should I just mention see post above where the sub-par overall stuff will cease translating at some point (unless he is just Greg Maddux then bring it on). There is a major jump in competition from AA to the MLB level and lacking top-end stuff is going to make it extremely difficult for him to excel as a changeup/control specialist. If MLB players aren't going to get fooled, it can get ugly fast (like Meyer). Do I have to keep saying this - where is the slider scouting report? If that (or the FB) has changed from what we currently have in the scouting reports, that can reframe the discussion quickly. Control alone isn't going to do it.

This is not a plant your flag prospect to me and calling him the next Zac Gallen is insane to me. This is a guy we might start thinking about as a 3rd bullpen lefty / 7th SP with 3 year of options, so it makes multiple of Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett, Eder, Fulton, Puk, Scott, Okert, Nardi, Simpson, and Smeltzer expendable longterm, because they are just lefty rich and they only need 6-8 of those guys.

[lou]

I gave up on that long ago. Not like he just showed up. He's been here 5 years.

Some would say that spouting the subjective scouting rankings of one website like they're gospel is equally ridiculous. Or discounting a guy based on one scouting report from before a guy was drafted for that matter.

eh, guys don't just start throwing 3-5 MPH harder (and if they do you find out quick) and I think I've mentioned a half dozen times, where is the updated report on the slider (or it could be the FB, but probability wise, it's the slider as discussed). So it's not like I'm taking the least valuable scouting source (MLB) as gospel here. The lack of scouting rankings or reports anywhere else speaks for itself though right? But I do think he is putting himself on the radar. He is killing people. If this is a true performance jump, bring it on. 2 MPH on the fastball as a late blooming TJ survivor and that slider becoming a true wipeout pitch to at least lefties would be a big step up for him. Until then, I think we have to assume based on no real reports, he just is who he is and dominating on control and the changeup (with a low BABIP and no HRs). That does make sense for an older than level guy. Basically, I'm just not sure how we can't see the pattern of how all these Ben Meyer and Antonio Velez (traded for Sulser - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/an...ats?position=P) types fall apart. Maybe Monteverde is different. I hope he is, but going to Zac Gallen is just a bit much. Gallen would be the 2nd best pitcher in the Marlins organization. Sorry Eury and Jesus.

As you joked about earlier this offseason, when Fangraphs gets to the Marlins preseason top prospects in June, maybe we get a moderate dive. Frankly, this is good for a potential write up as he's more on the radar now so I am interested in seeing if there is a "stuff" improvement.

[Lee Stone]

Yes, who was talking about Gallen back in 2019 when he was dubbed MLB Pipeline's 19th best prospect on the Marlins (behind Jordan Yamamoto). That was the basis of my comparison.

[lou]

Yes, who was talking about Gallen back in 2019 when he was dubbed MLB Pipeline's 19th best prospect on the Marlins (behind Jordan Yamamoto). That was the basis of my comparison.

There is a reason MLB pipeline is arguably the worst major service so yes, feel free to ding the hell out of them on that gem. Gallen ahead of Yamamoto 2019 in Fangraphs by a bit and a FV40+. Gallen's 2019 write up:

Viewed as a low-ceiling pitchability arm in college, Gallen reached Double-A just one calendar year after he was drafted by St. Louis, which traded him to Miami in the Marcel Ozuna deal the following winter. Last year he experienced an uptick in velocity and his four-seamer now sits in the low-90s and touches 94. It helped Gallen miss more bats, and he struck out a batter per inning at Triple-A New Orleans. Realistically, Gallen will pitch at the back of a rotation as a No. 4 or 5 starter because nothing he throws is plus and it's hard to envision him striking out many major league hitters. But if the velo bump last year was just the start of a trend that continues into the future, there might be a bit more here.


Banging the pots and pans - where is the Monteverde velocity bump or news that slider is a wipe out pitch? I mean it might come any day and then we can virtually high five as his stuff may back up the stats, but he's a Meyer/Velez until we get news there is a 2nd major offering. Gallen was that unicorn with the velocity jump. My entire point here is - let's get some indication this is happening with Monteverde.


Also Yamamoto 2019.

Yamamoto was the best pitchability prospect in the Fall League and has super advanced feel and command of several good secondary pitches. He froze guess hitters for six weeks in Arizona, bisecting the plate with his changeup and slider, and changing eye levels with his curveball and fastball. That fastball, though, sits in the upper-80s and dipped down to 86 at times during his starts. It gives Yamamoto little margin for error with the pitch in the strike zone, and caps his ceiling well beneath that of some of the lower probability prospects in this system, which is why Yamamoto is down here even though we like him a lot. There are several potential outcomes here. Yamamoto could be a vanilla fifth starter, or he could fit into a Ryan Yarbrough kind of role as change of pace long reliever. He could be a junkballing reliever who kitchen sinks hitters for an inning at a time, or once through the lineup. The quality of the secondary stuff and Yamamoto's artistry should enable him to be something despite the lack of velocity, and he's on the 40-man now, so we may get to see it next year.

That's pretty solid in hindsight.


Basically Miller is the potential Gallen of the system, while Monteverde is a potential poor man's Garrett, or more than likely a Smeltzer (who whiffed 9+ per 9 innings and dominated on control until he got to MLB level). Smeltzer ended up as a FV40 funky throwing lefty with 55 command and a 40 fastball when he graduated.

[Lee Stone]

There is a reason MLB pipeline is arguably the worst major service so yes, feel free to ding the hell out of them on that gem. Gallen ahead of Yamamoto 2019 in Fangraphs by a bit and a FV40+. Gallen's 2019 write up:

Viewed as a low-ceiling pitchability arm in college, Gallen reached Double-A just one calendar year after he was drafted by St. Louis, which traded him to Miami in the Marcel Ozuna deal the following winter. Last year he experienced an uptick in velocity and his four-seamer now sits in the low-90s and touches 94. It helped Gallen miss more bats, and he struck out a batter per inning at Triple-A New Orleans. Realistically, Gallen will pitch at the back of a rotation as a No. 4 or 5 starter because nothing he throws is plus and it's hard to envision him striking out many major league hitters. But if the velo bump last year was just the start of a trend that continues into the future, there might be a bit more here.


Banging the pots and pans - where is the Monteverde velocity bump or news that slider is a wipe out pitch? I mean it might come any day and then we can virtually high five as his stuff may back up the stats, but he's a Meyer/Velez until we get news there is a 2nd major offering. Gallen was that unicorn with the velocity jump. My entire point here is - let's get some indication this is happening with Monteverde.


Also Yamamoto 2019.

Yamamoto was the best pitchability prospect in the Fall League and has super advanced feel and command of several good secondary pitches. He froze guess hitters for six weeks in Arizona, bisecting the plate with his changeup and slider, and changing eye levels with his curveball and fastball. That fastball, though, sits in the upper-80s and dipped down to 86 at times during his starts. It gives Yamamoto little margin for error with the pitch in the strike zone, and caps his ceiling well beneath that of some of the lower probability prospects in this system, which is why Yamamoto is down here even though we like him a lot. There are several potential outcomes here. Yamamoto could be a vanilla fifth starter, or he could fit into a Ryan Yarbrough kind of role as change of pace long reliever. He could be a junkballing reliever who kitchen sinks hitters for an inning at a time, or once through the lineup. The quality of the secondary stuff and Yamamoto's artistry should enable him to be something despite the lack of velocity, and he's on the 40-man now, so we may get to see it next year.

That's pretty solid in hindsight.


Basically Miller is the potential Gallen of the system, while Monteverde is a potential poor man's Garrett, or more than likely a Smeltzer (who whiffed 9+ per 9 innings and dominated on control until he got to MLB level). Smeltzer ended up as a FV40 funky throwing lefty with 55 command and a 40 fastball when he graduated.

I think Monteverde is already better than Garrett. Evidence? There is no way that Garrett could go to AA right now and match what PM is doing..

Fangraphs didn't even have Jake Eder in their top 40 Marlins prospects after he was drafted.