Mainge's NFL Handicapping Thread

[Mainge]

Miami +2.5
Atlanta +1.5

[Bobbob1313]

Get it?
--------------------
That's an old joke, right?

[Mainge]

weeeheeee

[Namaste]

Good luck.

Hopefully you're not wagering too much money on these.

NFL sides and totals are by far the most efficient market in all of sports betting (you may know this already).

I'm guessing you're doing this for fun and I'm a big fan of that. I enjoy reading your take on NFL match ups.

[....J....]

Good luck.

Hopefully you're not wagering too much money on these.

NFL sides and totals are by far the most efficient market in all of sports betting (you may know this already).

I'm guessing you're doing this for fun and I'm a big fan of that. I enjoy reading your take on NFL match ups.

what do u mean by efficient?

[Mainge]

Good luck.

Hopefully you're not wagering too much money on these.

NFL sides and totals are by far the most efficient market in all of sports betting (you may know this already).

I'm guessing you're doing this for fun and I'm a big fan of that. I enjoy reading your take on NFL match ups.

I do know this but I appreciate the advice. It's not a significant amount of money anyway.

[Namaste]

what do u mean by efficient?

Long story short......

You won't find soft/off lines on NFL sides and totals mostly for 2 reasons

Unlike MLB/NBA, there are only 16 games played during the regular season AND there is a TON of interest in those games.


Therefore, there is a ton of time for linesmakers (who have access to models that the recreational bettor does not) to set very efficient lines.

[....J....]

thought that's what u meant....i agree.....betting the NFL is essentially a coin flip.....college is where u can make ur money

[Namaste]

betting the NFL is essentially a coin flip....


And a coin flip with each side being -110 at that.........

[Mainge]

It's only a coin flip if you don't know what you're doing.

[Namaste]

It's only a coin flip if you don't know what you're doing.

Long story short......

You won't find soft/off lines on NFL sides and totals mostly for 2 reasons

Unlike MLB/NBA, there are only 16 games played during the regular season AND there is a TON of interest in those games.


Therefore, there is a ton of time for linesmakers (who have access to models that the recreational bettor does not) to set very efficient lines.

In a very efficient market (see NFL) sides and totals are most certainly a coin flip





If you hit 60% with a big sample size of plays (100-150) in this thread I will change my username to MaingeIsMyDaddy

[Mainge]

As tempting as that is, that would be silly. That would involve me playing a large number of games that I'm not confident in to meet that sample size.

I think I only made like 24 plays last year.

[....J....]

It's only a coin flip if you don't know what you're doing.

by this comment i can only assume that you havent really been betting the NFL for an extended period of time.

when ure betting the NFL u hope to break even w/the juice.......everyone knows that.

[Mainge]

Correct. This is my 4th year, but I've done very well so far though.

[Metes]

If anybody can beat the street on NFL, it would be Mainge

[FishFF]

Love the Miami play this week

[Namaste]

Market moving in your favor in the MIA game, Mainge.

currently +1.5/+2 @ most offshore books

[Fish Tank Frenzy]

Anyone have an opinion on the Steelers -10 @ Colts? I love Pittsburgh. The Colts will be lucky to score a TD.

[Namaste]

Mainge

If I was going to try and beat the NFL today I would be on SEA +3 and SF/CIN Under 40 -110

But I will not be on either.


Good luck today

[Metes]

I also like SEA as home dogs in their opener

I will be in attendance so that will help tip the odds in your favor

[MiamiHomer]

Hey, at least Mainge got the Dolphins pick right!

[Mainge]

:(.

[Mainge]

Coinflip this week.

[Namaste]

If I was going to try and beat the NFL today I would be on SEA +3 and SF/CIN Under 40 -110



I went 2-0 in my coin flips that I didn't bet

[Metes]

Told you I'd make SEA hit

[Namaste]

1-1 is a solid start, Mainge

If we were flipping a coin tonight, we'd be on Dallas -3

[Namaste]

We LOVE Bengals +3 -110 today

[Madman81]

After they took part in the worst game ever last week?

I mean, I know San Francisco is the greatest team of all time, but I still think the Bengals did their fair share of suck.

[Namaste]

After they took part in the worst game ever last week?

I mean, I know San Francisco is the greatest team of all time, but I still think the Bengals did their fair share of suck.


Several factors involved here.

The first being what you just mentioned. They were horrific last week yet they're just getting 3 at home v the RED HOT Bills. They call that a clue at Quantico

Also, Pinnacle doesn't want anyone on Cincy (-114 right now)

There is just a TON of square money coming in on the Bills right now on the road.


Love the Bengals all day. I even have a small amount on the money line.

I don't care if they lose/don't cover. I love this play.

[Namaste]

lol @ that INT

[MiamiHomer]

Money in the bank.

[Madman81]

Thumbs up on that play. Very cooperative crumble by the Bills.

[Mainge]

Chicago +6
Philly -3

[Fish Tank Frenzy]

If the line on the Bears was +5 would you still be on them? Basically at what point would the line have to move for you to be on the Lions?
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Anyone else like the Cardinals +2.5 @ Vikings?

[Mainge]

The Bears would have to be favored for me to get on the Lions. +5 is still a good bet.

[Namaste]

Maingy, we like Titans +3.5 -115, Broncos +4 -115 and TB/SFO U41.5 -110 today

[Fritz]

Taking the under on TB-SF? Interesante.

[Fish Tank Frenzy]

If the line on the Bears was +5 would you still be on them? Basically at what point would the line have to move for you to be on the Lions?
--------------------
Anyone else like the Cardinals +2.5 @ Vikings?

Fade all my NFL picks ever!

[Mainge]

Fucking Fips.

[Fritz]

Maingy, we like Titans +3.5 -115, Broncos +4 -115 and TB/SFO U41.5 -110 today

Bad pick on TB/SF under 41.5.

[Namaste]

Bad pick on TB/SF under 41.5.


I lose roughly 52% of my plays (I bet a lot of dogs)


Over 41.5 was the obvious play. We don't play the obvious plays. If it was easy as playing the obvious plays, 20 million American men would be making a living off of betting on the NFL.


;)

I lost every NFL bet I made today (I went 0-4 and lost several hundred dollars on Denver +3.5 and ML)

[Fritz]

Sucky.

This is why I will never gamble.

[....J....]

Lions win by double digs tonight

Cutler will be pickin his ass up off the ground all night

[Mainge]

He picks his ass up all night every game. I think that defense is too good to let it get out of hand.

[Namaste]

If I was betting it I would be on +7 -105

[....J....]

If I was betting it I would be on +7 -105

LOL nicely worded sir

[Mainge]

Chicago +6
Philly -3

:-(

Rough start but it's only a matter of time.

[Fish Tank Frenzy]

The Bears almost had the back door cover at the very end of the game!

[Mainge]

That would have been fun.

[....J....]

was fun for me
:)

[Mainge]

Oh cool bro

[Namaste]

LOL nicely worded sir


Really wasn't trying to get cute with the wording.

I thought CHI would cover the 7 but I only bet like 3 or 4 NFL sides and totals a year these days


You'll get em this week, Mainge

[Mainge]

I think so too.

[Namaste]

Love the Ravens -12 today

[Mainge]

Detroit -3
Cincy -1.5

[Namaste]

Love the Ravens -12 today


:picard

[Mainge]

Detroit -3
Cincy -1.5

Back to .500 at 3-3.

[MiamiHomer]

Can't believe Detroit was only a -3 even on the road.

[Namaste]

Mainge we love Eagles +3.5 -115 today

[Namaste]

F U D G E

[Beef]

You should stop believing what the other you is saying

[Namaste]

On 49ers -3 -105 HUGH tonight so totally expecting the Steeler blow out

Hate the NFL

[Namaste]

I picked a winner in the NFL. Next I'll not be hungover on Sunday morning.

[Beef]

Because generally you are hungover on Sunday morning

[Namaste]

Correct. You're really smart.

[Beef]

u NO it

[Namaste]

Saturday night is my one night a week to fire away.

[Beef]

Hit me with your best shot!

[Namaste]

Wheelz, we love Falcons +7.5 tonight tonight tonight oh ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[Metes]

MattyDeezy is on ATL ML

[jOOj]

The Falcons coaches in their skin tight black pants and black shirts remind me of Sprockets.

Now's the time of Sprockets when we dance!

http://i41.tinypic.com/2hx1zyt.jpg

[Mainge]

Wheelz, we love Falcons +7.5 tonight tonight tonight oh ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

I forgot about this thread.

[Metes]

Never forget.

[Namaste]

I forgot about this thread.


The thread didn't forget about you.

[Hugg]

Too bad you couldn't have had ATL +30

[Beef]

Hopefully he wasn't on it too HUGH downs

[Namaste]

Losing picks always generate more traffic than winning ones. But I guess it's good for site traffic? Who knows. Yeah that was an ugly game for ATL backers.

[Beef]

It was only a total of two posts. Your incorrect pick made this site more popular than the Official Thread of the Golden Panthers

[Namaste]

Two posts in reference to a losing pick > 0 posts anytime a winner is posted.

I was kidding about the site traffic, Beefy.

[Beef]

I know it, I wanted to make a Golden Panthers reference

[jOOj]

I'd take the over on the Golden Panthers.

[Namaste]

Got DEN +9 -115 3 days ago. Loving that they're +7.5 -115 @ Pinnacle right now.

[Namaste]

:tebow
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They hung DEN 13.5 vs NE.

[Fritz]

:tebow

[Chewford]

:tebow

:tebow

[Metes]

:tebow:tebow:tebow
:tebow

[Beef]

I might start posting that face just to make Festa h8 it

[Namaste]

We have small wagers on

49'ers +3.5 -110
Broncos +14 -115

[Namaste]

Houston/Baltimore Under 7 -110 First Quarter

[Fish Tank Frenzy]

Houston/Baltimore Under 7 -110 First Quarter

Thank Jacoby Jones for this one not hitting.

[Mainge]

Maybe Houston was about to march anyway.

[Namaste]

Meh. At least I don't have to watch the rest of the quarter.

/MrBrightSide

[Mainge]

Giants +9

[Fish Tank Frenzy]

Giants +9

I LOVE this play. I am putting up 1 unit on this play. I also took the Niners yesterday for 1 unit. Good thing I haven't bet on the AFC games, cause so far I would've lost both unless the Texans come back.
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I also might put a play on the Giants money line.
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The Giants money line is +310. Getting 3x your play, I am definitely playing this.

[Namaste]

My early lean for Championship Sunday would be Niners -2.5

[Mainge]

Giants +9

:marchmellow

[Namaste]

My early lean for Championship Sunday would be Niners -2.5

We have a HUGE position on 49ers -2.5 -108
More $$ on them than I'm comfortable with but hopefully were on the right side
:ranger:

[Mainge]

Baltimore +7

[Namaste]

Baltimore +7

We're on Ravens +4.5 -110 1st Half HUGH

[Namaste]

We're on Ravens +4.5 -110 1st Half HUGH


:marchmellow:marchmellow

[Mainge]

Baltimore +7

:marchmellow

[Namaste]

We have a HUGE position on 49ers -2.5 -108
More $$ on them than I'm comfortable with but hopefully were on the right side
:ranger:

lol punt returners :fist