I'm Being Way too Presumptuous ('11)

[nny]

Pitching: 72 runs against
Defense: 46 runs saved
Total Runs Against: 676 (3.86 ERA)
Offense: 849 runs scored (.764 OPS)

.612 win%, 99 wins

http://marlins.selftitled.net/images/11offense.PNG
http://marlins.selftitled.net/images/11pitching.PNG

I think biggest wild cards are #4/#5 SP spots. Could just as easily see West and Miller not working and us being rather screwed there unless we get good stuff for Uggla and Cody. Also think it really means we need to keep Ricky. Just take the draft picks after the season.

And although no real aces we have such an abundance of BP arms that should be able to make something around that, those names are really interchangeable, especially with Lindy and Nunez being deep in arbitration.

It's really assuming no injuries. 150 games played for the position players (except the platoon of C and LF which is 162). 30 starts for SP, with Trahern/#6 starter making the other 12.

I think we give up more runs that though because of base running against us. If we still have Baker back there, even with hayes getting 35% of the PT, we still have SPs who don't hold runners and such. So I imagine the "defense" boost wouldn't be that high. Let's being real pessimistic and say 20 runs against us? Still .598 win%, 97 games won.

I'd definitely say in '11 if things go the way they should go we're a 95-100 win team.

[m26555]

That bullpen looks pretty ugly.

[¿NICK?]

You can't predict what the bullpen will look like next year let alone 2 years from now. So that's kinda useless.

[nny]

You can't predict what the bullpen will look like next year let alone 2 years from now. So that's kinda useless.

and survery says:

those names are really interchangeable
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That bullpen looks pretty ugly.

No aces but it's deep. more or less league average (i'd say less since no aces but we're not talking horrible)

[Sashimi]

It just wouldn't be a NNY post without a grammatical or spelling error in the title.

/smartass

[nny]

I gotta stick out somehow

[¿NICK?]

and survery says:


I was responding to the post above mine.

[Swifty]

I can't help but recall how we were stockpiling "the coin of the realm" and that, come 2009, no team would want to play us and our rotation would be so good we'd have to have guys who would be 3's on other teams pitch in AAA for us, and yet...here we are.

So excuse me if I see absolutely no point in discussing 2011, especially with this front office group and their obsession with making poor choices be it in personnel, lineup/roster construction or when to buy a player's arbitration schedule out.

Therfore, let me constructively add that I see no way the 2011 Marlins have a healthy and productive JJ, Hanley, Nolasco, Miller and Lindstrom.

[nny]

Big difference between pitching and hitting prospects

[Metes]

I also find it optimistic that Logan and Stanton will have mid-800 OPS's

[Swifty]

Point taken, but Hermida, Maybin and as a foil, Uggla suggest that quality is rarely a guarantee among prospects, especially those hoarded out of high-school.

[nny]

I also find it optimistic that Logan and Stanton will have mid-800 OPS's

it's more or less what they're expected to do. I don't find those numbers optimistic at all.

Is it optimistic to assume that all the above up there perform at their expected value? Yes. But individually I don't see any real optimism at all.

[Metes]

Well Maybin was expected to put up an 850 OPS, but I haven't seen that yet.

I'm not disagreeing with your methodology here, the projections are what they are. I just think it's folly to think that those numbers are in the bank.

[nny]

Point taken, but Hermida, Maybin and as a foil, Uggla suggest that quality is rarely a guarantee among prospects, especially those hoarded out of high-school.

I agree but I by no means say it's a gurantee and myself say that it's being very presumption (fuck whoever changed it I AM WHO I AM). But bored want wanted to see just how good we could be if people perform how they're suppose to perform.

but to also respond to your last paragraph

"
Therfore, let me constructively add that I see no way the 2011 Marlins have a healthy and productive JJ, Hanley, Nolasco, Miller and Lindstrom."

I agree with Lindstrom and, based off how the FO has acted in the pass, expect a "Veteran" reliever mor or less there. Miller I agree with but I think more or less should be fixed by trading Uggla/Cantu/Cody/ect. I definitely think 4/5 is the biggest weakness.

Nolasco I also agree with because of his price, injury concerns, ect. And also the biggest cause of concern. Cuz we have no real #2 anywhere. And don't know if we'll get one in trade.

JJ and Hanley, I believe you're not singling them out per se because of the and, but outside of us trading JJ for monetary reasons I don't see anything happening between the two.
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Well Maybin was expected to put up an 850 OPS, but I haven't seen that yet.

By who? Idiots? Hermida you could say that for but anyone who expected Maybin to put a 850 OPS shouldn't talk again.

And I never said they were in the bank (see: "I'M BEING WAY TOO PRESUMPTION")

[Swifty]

Well, where I was going with that thought (and I think you and I are on the same page) is that we're evidently going to go year to year with all the guys and assuming no one's arm falls off, come 2011 JJ and Nolasco should conservatively combine for $15 million in arby awards as 6th year players, Lindstrom should get about $1.75-$2.33 if he stays as our closer and Miller because of that 85% salary guarantee and the Detroit deal is probably going to earn in the neighborhood of $3.5 mil and that's on the low end.

In any event, I hope we start spending money but I just can't allow myself to buy into the great "future Marlin promise" I've just been burned too much.

[Omar]

Not sure about the other stats, but i can't see a rookie hitting 40 HR in a pitcher's park. I'd put a solid amount of money against 3 players that would be sophomore players at best (Stanton, Dominguez, and Morrison) if not rookies combining for 92 HR in a year playing 99 games in JRS, Citi Field, and Nationals Park. Maybe 2013....maaaaybe 2012 for those kind of production numbers.

Just for reference purposes, our all time record for HR in a season was Sheff with 42 in 1996. That's the only season a Marlin has reached the 40 HR mark.

[Bobbob1313]

Mike Stanton has absurd power. It's not out of the question.

Especially since he might not be a rookie.

[Swifty]

Penciling in a 40 home-run season is borderline absurdity.

Since 2005, there have been 27 40 homer seasons, 7 combined in 2007 and 2008, and 7 players (Ortiz, Dunn, ARod, Pujols, Thome, Howard, Berkman) had multiple 40+ homer seasons, and since the steroid testing with teeth, it's basically Howard, Dunn and Pujols; that's it.

And, as Sub Zero has alluded, the NL East is ripe with pitcher friendly, or at least neutral, parks. Maybe you can say Stanton grades out an 80 in power on a scout's scale, but he isn't going to simply fall into 40 homers in what may be his rookie season, and will almost assuredly be his first full season.

[Party]

I can't help but recall how we were stockpiling "the coin of the realm" and that, come 2009, no team would want to play us and our rotation would be so good we'd have to have guys who would be 3's on other teams pitch in AAA for us, and yet...here we are.

So excuse me if I see absolutely no point in discussing 2011, especially with this front office group and their obsession with making poor choices be it in personnel, lineup/roster construction or when to buy a player's arbitration schedule out.

Therfore, let me constructively add that I see no way the 2011 Marlins have a healthy and productive JJ, Hanley, Nolasco, Miller and Lindstrom.

I approve of this post, especially the top paragraph. There are 29 other message boards with Nny's that have their '11 squads winning 99 games.

This is perhaps a best case scenario. No way all of Morrison, Stanton, Maybin, Coghlan, etc. all develop into anything close to those projections.

[wanks1212]

I like these in terms of "hey, fun best case scenario." They're valuable that way, and nny does good projections, but at the same time 2011 is way too far off to assert anything close to definitively.

That said, when the 2010 roster is set, I'd like to see nny (or someone) weight nny's projections with CHONE, zips, and pecota to see what comes up when all four are put together. That woudl be more interesting than just looking at each projection individually.

[nny]

I like these in terms of "hey, fun best case scenario." They're valuable that way, and nny does good projections, but at the same time 2011 is way too far off to assert anything close to definitively.

I mean, seriously, isn't this suppose to be the "smart" message board? The fact that majority of these posts are "it's 2011, you can't guarantee what happens then" oh shit really?!?!? THANKS MAN!!!!!

[wanks1212]

i thought that was understood

[nny]

Not sure about the other stats, but i can't see a rookie hitting 40 HR in a pitcher's park. I'd put a solid amount of money against 3 players that would be sophomore players at best (Stanton, Dominguez, and Morrison) if not rookies combining for 92 HR in a year playing 99 games in JRS, Citi Field, and Nationals Park. Maybe 2013....maaaaybe 2012 for those kind of production numbers.

Just for reference purposes, our all time record for HR in a season was Sheff with 42 in 1996. That's the only season a Marlin has reached the 40 HR mark.

That's a fair point. Those numbers aren't really what I expect "rookie year" but more or less what they are. I was thinking of dropping dominugez but I was like meh it'd only drop a few runs and not make much of a difference.

Stanton though is certainly a fair point. 30 HRs is probably a lot more fair for rookie season.

Doing a striat drop of stanton to 30 HRs (.757) and DoMing to 20 (.732) drops us to 827 runs scored, still putting us at 90+ wins
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i thought that was understood

SO WOULD I
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EVEN WITH A BIG TITLE THAT SAYS I'M BEING PRESMUTOUS
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That said, when the 2010 roster is set, I'd like to see nny (or someone) weight nny's projections with CHONE, zips, and pecota to see what comes up when all four are put together. That woudl be more interesting than just looking at each projection individually.

I will be doing that though and would have done that instead of '11 if it wasn't for the fact we have no clue who'll play 1st, 2nd, 3rd, lf, or rf :lol

[nny]

Line up
Hanley: 11m
Baker: 2.5m
BC: 1m
LH-Wes Helms: 1m
everyone else: 400k
hitters: 19,100,000

JJ: 8m
Ricky: 6m
Andrew: 2.5m
Lindstrom: 3m
Nunez: 2m
everyone else: 400k
pitchers: 24.3m

Total = 43.4m

I'd actually assume that would be under our '11 range. Lou can correct me if anything seems horrific, I was just doing completely roundball eye numbers.

[lou]

Line up
Hanley: 11m
Baker: 2.5m
BC: 1m
LH-Wes Helms: 1m
everyone else: 400k
hitters: 19,100,000

JJ: 8m
Ricky: 6m
Andrew: 2.5m
Lindstrom: 3m
Nunez: 2m
everyone else: 400k
pitchers: 24.3m

Total = 43.4m

I'd actually assume that would be under our '11 range. Lou can correct me if anything seems horrific, I was just doing completely roundball eye numbers.

We have Baker by the balls (as well as Volstad). They don't hit arbitration until 2012. We are free and clear for 2011 with them.

I would advance guesstimate this as payroll with the team you present.

2011
C John Baker $420,000
1B Logan Morrison $420,000
2B Chris Coghlan $420,000
3B Matt Dominguez $410,000
SS Hanley Ramirez $11,000,000
LF Brett Carroll $1,000,000
CF Cameron Maybin $420,000
RF Mike Stanton $410,000
B Emilio Bonifacio $420,000
B Brett Hayes $410,000
B Scott Cousins $410,000
B Gaby Sanchez $420,000
B Veteran Bat $1,500,000

SP Josh Johnson $8,000,000
SP Ricky Nolasco $7,500,000
SP Chris Volstad $420,000
SP Andrew Miller $4,500,000
SP Sean West $420,000
RP Matt Lindstrom $3,500,000
RP Leo Nunez $1,800,000
RP Dan Meyer $420,000
RP Rick Vanden Hurk $420,000
RP Ryan Tucker $410,000
RP Tim Wood $420,000
RP Chris Leroux $420,000

$45,890,000

This is assuming Lindstrom gets all the saves, etc., and it's pretty roundball on my part also overall, but for a guesstimate, I'm fairly confident it's give or take $1-2 million overall here. But I guess the grand point is, if all those prospects are ready, there is literally no way in hell this team breaks $50 million.

[tjfla]

We have Baker by the balls (as well as Volstad). They don't hit arbitration until 2012. We are free and clear for 2011 with them.

I would advance guesstimate this as payroll with the team you present.

2011
C John Baker $420,000
1B Logan Morrison $420,000
2B Chris Coghlan $420,000
3B Matt Dominguez $410,000
SS Hanley Ramirez $11,000,000
LF Brett Carroll $1,000,000
CF Cameron Maybin $420,000
RF Mike Stanton $410,000
B Emilio Bonifacio $420,000
B Brett Hayes $410,000
B Scott Cousins $410,000
B Gaby Sanchez $420,000
B Veteran Bat $1,500,000

SP Josh Johnson $8,000,000
SP Ricky Nolasco $7,500,000
SP Chris Volstad $420,000
SP Andrew Miller $4,500,000
SP Sean West $420,000
RP Matt Lindstrom $3,500,000
RP Leo Nunez $1,800,000
RP Dan Meyer $420,000
RP Rick Vanden Hurk $420,000
RP Ryan Tucker $410,000
RP Tim Wood $420,000
RP Chris Leroux $420,000

$45,890,000

This is assuming Lindstrom gets all the saves, etc., and it's pretty roundball on my part also overall, but for a guesstimate, I'm fairly confident it's give or take $1-2 million overall here. But I guess the grand point is, if all those prospects are ready, there is literally no way in hell this team breaks $50 million.

And that does not take into account -guys we get in trades for Uggla,Ross,Hermida,Cantu and other prospects who could be easily ready by 2011(Jay Voss,Dan Jennings,Garrett Parcell,Jose Ceda,Kyle Winters)

[McLevin]

I think if Samson and Co. are serious about heading into the stadium in style, they're gonna need to acquire a BIG bat for LF and a STUD reliever in 2011

[lou]

I think if Samson and Co. are serious about heading into the stadium in style, they're gonna need to acquire a BIG bat for LF and a STUD reliever in 2011

I don't think they'll go that way until they know what we have with Maybin, Morrison, Stanton, Dominguez, Coghlan, G. Sanchez, Cousins, Petersen, Vanden Hurk, Winters, Trahern, Wood, Leroux, Tucker, Ceda, Cishek, Parcell, Voss, Sanabia, Rosario, etc...

If half of those guys turn out cool, we're looking at an arbitration explosion after the 2012/2013 season, and signing big FA contracts could drastically impact future salary. Hanley, Johnson, Nolasco, and Miller are going to cost a ton by themselves in 2011. Like $30-32 million just those four.

I can see some mid-level veterans for 2-3 spots on 1-2 year deals, but no big splashes in free agency right away.