Anibal Sanchez 2011: Destiny's a Bitch - She's Dating Verlander Now

[Ralph]

MLB - Sanchez and Nolan Ryan
Anibal Sanchez threw his 3rd complete game one-hitter before his 28th birthday. He is the first pitcher in the last 30 seasons to have 3 complete game one-hitters at age 27 or younger. The last pitcher to accomplish this was Dennis Eckersley, who had 3 from 1977-80.
ESPN Stats and Information

Also gotta love the K's and grounders he's been getting. Randy St Claire done a good job with the staff.

[Ramp]

That's some serious stats right there

[Ralph]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/whats-right-with-anibal-sanchez/

good read.

Really an interesting extension candidate IMO.

[Mainge]

Anibal is for me.

[Ramp]

I was wondering who Destiny was. Then I was like.... ohhhh... ISWYDT

[marlins_virus.exe]

I'm a huge fan of extending him

[Swifty]

Destiny's such a prude.

[marlins_virus.exe]

On Saturday afternoon, the Florida Marlins’ Anibal Sanchez dominated the Washington Nationals, throwing eight shutout innings. In his last two starts (both, as it happens, against Washington), Sanchez has thrown 15 innings without permitting a run, giving up just five hits and two walks while striking out 20, dropping his ERA to 2.90. His FIP (fielding independent pitching, an approximation of what his ERA “should” be attempting to remove luck and defense from the equation) during those two starts is approximately 0.93.

If you had to guess who on the current Marlins roster could produce such a dominant number, it’d probably be Josh Johnson. Which, given his league-leading 1.63 ERA (and his league-leading 2.30 ERA in 2010), is perfectly understandable. But Sanchez, so far in 2011, has been almost as good as Johnson. He’s gotten a few more strikeouts, permitted a few more walks, and has given up two more homers.

Johnson has been a better pitcher than Sanchez, but Johnson has been a better pitcher than almost everybody. While Sanchez has had a few off outings -- he gave up 13 hits to the Astros on April 10, and walked six Cardinals on May 3 -- his overall performance so far suggests that, at just 27 and coming off the first injury-free season of his career, Sanchez might be developing into a No. 1-A to Johnson’s No. 1.

Sanchez was good enough in 2010 (with a 3.55 ERA and 118 ERA+ in 195 innings), but he appears to have taken another large step forward this year. The biggest difference is the strikeouts. His 9.4 strikeouts per nine thus far in 2011 has beat his previous, relatively pedestrian career mark by 2.5 strikeouts, and his 2010 mark by more than two. According to Fangraphs, entering Saturday night’s start, Sanchez’s fastball was up nearly half a mile per hour from last year, his slider was up more than one and a half, and his curve was down just a tick, all good things for making a pitcher less hittable. Over on Fangraphs, following his last start, Eno Sarris gave some additional good reasons to believe the jump in strikeouts was real.

Sanchez has now had eight starts in 2011, and has racked up at least as many strikeouts as innings pitched in five of them (with two very off starts and one where he managed four strikeouts in five innings). It’s not just a matter of one or two good games, or of dominating one or two bad teams -- Sanchez has, so far, been a different, better pitcher. He has managed many more strikeouts than he ever had while keeping his walks down at roughly his 2010 level, which is basically the perfect recipe for becoming a star.

And here’s something scary: with Ricky Nolasco (last seen holding the Phillies to just one earned run in 6.1 innings on Wednesday), the Marlins essentially have two Anibal Sanchezes. Nolasco has been a favorite of the sabermetrically-inclined for several years now, putting up impressive FIPs of 3.35 and 3.86 in 2009 and 2010 while being saddled with ugly ERAs of 5.06 and 4.51. After two seasons like that, you might start to think that Nolasco wasn’t just unlucky, but is one of those rare players that seems to confound the metrics, actually pitching less effectively than the metrics suggest. So far in 2011, though, he’s been almost exactly the pitcher the advanced metrics have expected him to be. He’s averaging almost seven and a half strikeouts per nine (which is a bit low for him, but he’s at roughly one K per inning over his last six starts), and walking just one and a half per nine, and it’s resulted in a 3.02 ERA (3.33 FIP) in his first 53.2 innings.

It’s a bit hard to take the Marlins seriously, as a general matter. Their payroll always seems to hover around Alex Rodriguez's annual salary, and this offseason, they traded away their second-best position player and their starting center fielder for almost nothing in return. But with Johnson, Sanchez and Nolasco, they have what appears to be developing into one of the most dominant rotations (or top threes, anyway) in baseball. With Hanley Ramirez (who should start hitting like Hanley again eventually), Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton, there seems to be more than enough offense there to win.

If you’re not already thinking of the 23-15 Marlins as contenders in the NL East and the wild card race, I think it’s time to start.


http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/10897/sanchez-becoming-marlins-second-ace

[geemoney]

It’s a bit hard to take the Marlins seriously, as a general matter. Their payroll always seems to hover around Alex Rodriguez's annual salary, and this offseason, they traded away their second-best position player and their starting center fielder for almost nothing in return.

I liked the article up until this. Sorry, but underwhelming Cam Maybin for two solid relievers is more than getting "almost nothing."

[Mainge]

He's talking about Cody

[geemoney]

He's talking about Cody

Didn't we trade him in-season though? They specifically said off-season.

[Mainge]

You right, but I still took it as Cody. I suppose I shouldn't give sports journalists the benefit of the doubt.

[geemoney]

You right, but I still took it as Cody. I suppose I shouldn't give sports journalists the benefit of the doubt.
I guess either way, my point about liking the article up 'til those sentences stands.

[CrimsonCane]

It's also very dumb to say we got "close to nothing in return." Freeing up payroll is something. You can't evaluate Uggla based on what we got directly back via trade, you judge it by what we used the money that would've been spent on Uggla's contract.

[kylekash]

It's also very dumb to say we got "close to nothing in return." Freeing up payroll is something. You can't evaluate Uggla based on what we got directly back via trade, you judge it by what we used the money that would've been spent on Uggla's contract.

Buck and Vasquez? We failed on the Vasquez front ...

[CrimsonCane]

Buck, Infante, and Vasquez really. Also, Vazquez is a 1 year deal. Uggla would've been a horrendous multi-year contract. It's a potentially bad move this season, but it's an error we can correct next season. The same can't be said about signing Uggla long-term if he keeps up his current production.

[Swifty]

I'd make the Fredi-Uggla for Edwin-Dunn-Infante trade every f'ing time.

[jay576]

How can you leave out Dunn in that situation

[kylekash]

Well I was commenting solely on the freeing up money aspect of things. I really wasn't a big fan of Uggla, especially at the price tag he wanted. I'm kind of happy he is gone. It sucks that a large portion of this year's savings went into Vasquez who hasn't panned out, but they aren't going to hit on everyone.

Dunn has been very good this year and Infante has been OK, his defense is a big plus. I'm especially all for it if it gives the team some flexibility to try and put a deal together to keep Anibal around. Is this his last year of arbitration? He has looked real good the last couple seasons and think its worth exploring an extension. JJ, Nolasco, Anibal has been quite the threesome, now if only the back of the rotation can not be so bad.

[AdamRavs]

I would say Infante has been better than ok.. His hitting will come around. He seems to do well in the 8 hole as well. His D is 100 times better than Uggla as well.

[MiamiHomer]

He's working it right now. When do the Marlins think about getting him locked up for a few years?

[marlins_virus.exe]

when it's too late (see: Cabrera, Miguel; Beckett, Josh; Stanton, Mike)

[Omar]

Or after this offseason (see: Johnson, Josh; Ramirez, Hanley; Nolasco, Ricky)

[Ramp]

let pokadot be bitter

[MiamiHomer]

He'll have his chance again in a few days when the Marlins make their pick in the draft.

[Bobbob1313]

It's too late to sign mike Stanton?

Shit, his arbitration years went quick.

[AdamRavs]

when it's too late (see: Cabrera, Miguel; Beckett, Josh; Stanton, Mike)

Stanton still plays for us no?

[Bobbob1313]

Stanton is still 5 full years after this one from free agency, no?

[Swifty]

It's probably too late to get Stanton signed for a super useful number.

Anibal, however, with 2012 remaining as club control would be silly to balk at a 3 year deal, and the Marlins would be silly to not go there. A backloaded 3/$21 makes sense for all.

[Bobbob1313]

He's not going to sign for Longoria money, but if he signed right now, we'd still get him for substantially less than we did Hanley.

[marlins_virus.exe]

He'll have his chance again in a few days when the Marlins make their pick in the draft.
I'm hoping for a high school hitter!!!
--------------------
It's probably too late to get Stanton signed for a super useful number.

Anibal, however, with 2012 remaining as club control would be silly to balk at a 3 year deal, and the Marlins would be silly to not go there. A backloaded 3/$21 makes sense for all.
this.

[Bobbob1313]

Can you guys explain, in detail, to me what "super useful number" we wouldn't be able to sign Stanton for right now or at the end of the year?

Someone who could provide a pretty good framework is Jay Bruce, who had a very similar service time after his rookie year. He was hurt his 2nd year, but his service time was extremely similar. The production's not quite perfect, but Bruce was a very productive player in his first three years for the most part. Stanton will probably outpace him, but it's the best i can do.

He played out his first three years for the minimum and then signed a 6/51 with an option to get it to 7/68.

Then there's someone like Grady Sizemore, who signed for 6/23 with an option for 8.5 in his 7th after his first full season, which put him somewhere around 1.060 years of service time, or something.

Sizemore had more service time than Stanton does right now when he signed his deal, and Stanton is still 2 full years from being where Bruce is. Assuming we won't sign Stanton until after this season, we'll split the difference between them.

You can probably get Stanton for something like 6/35 that buys out all of his arbitration plus one FA year and then tack on two options for $15 that bring the total to like 8/65. He absolutely signs that, and quite honestly, that 6/35 might be too high, because it's based largely on Bruce's contract, and Stanton's still going to be 2 seasons from any sort of paycheck at the end of this year.

If he's half as good as we think he will be, 6/35 (8/65) is a freaking bargain, and I'm fairly certain he'd sign it right away.

Basically, you're playing it out like this:

12: $.5
13: $.5
14: $4.5
15: $7
16: $9.5
17: $13
18: $15*
19: $15*

*Options.

I that even a little but unrealistic for a guy who, once again, is 5 full seasons after this one from being a free agent? He's not turning down $35(+$30) million when he's some 800 games away from free agency.

[Mainge]

I didn't realize Stanton was Jay Bruce

[Bobbob1313]

Fuck you.

[Mainge]

:mischief

[Hugg]

I think we should trade Stanton since our window for signing him has closed.

Oh well.

[marlins_virus.exe]

that's not what I was saying Matthugg and you know it.

Bob, the issue with your analysis (besides the fact that there's no real perfect player to compare him to) is that offense has changed dramatically. All of a sudden Mike Stanton is one of maybe 5 guys you can say has a realistic shot at hitting 40 home runs every year. And he's only like 14 years old.

[Bobbob1313]

He's also 5 years away from free agency. He's has zero leverage.

[Miamarlin21]

He's also 5 years away from free agency. He's has zero leverage.

He could threaten not to hit any more homeruns.

[Ralph]

A few weeks ago, we looked at a few of the arms who might be available for mid-season trades, and it wasn’t exactly a list of Cy Young candidates. Jason Marquis, Kevin Slowey, Jeremy Guthrie… useful pitchers all, but not exactly the kind of sexy addition that a team looking to make a big time push for the World Series is dreaming of. Looking around the league, there just didn’t seem to be any high quality arms with front-line starter upside who would be on the market this summer.

But then, June happened to the Marlins. After looking like a surprising contender in April and May, they’ve gone 3-22 in June, changed managers, and are now 14 1/2 games behind the first place Phillies. Even their Wild Card hopes seem long gone, as they stand 10 games back of the Braves and would have to leap frog over 10 teams to claim the consolation playoff berth. The 2011 Marlins are going to be also-rans, and that puts a pitcher on the market who could change a lot of playoff races.

While Josh Johnson has garnered the headlines, his rotation mate Anibal Sanchez has quietly matured into a terrific pitcher in his own right. His career has been cut short by numerous injuries, but as we noted last August, Sanchez’s stuff really began to round back into form last summer. His velocity trended up all summer, and over the last 12 months, he’s settled in as a guy whose fastball averages close to 92 with a hard slider and a strong diving changeup.

The return of Sanchez’s premium stuff has been reflected in his performance as well. Over the last 365 days, Sanchez has been one of the best pitchers in the National League. Improved stuff and elite performance from a 27-year-old under team control for 2012? Now that’s the kind of player that a team would be willing to sell the farm for.

Sanchez is especially intriguing because any team acquiring him in the next month will be on the hook for only about $2 million in salary over the rest of the season, so the bidding could be opened up beyond the usual suspects. Yes, the Yankees would almost certainly make a strong bid, but the Marlins would be able to market Sanchez as a guy who could change nearly every pennant race in baseball.

The Reds could turn their focus to Sanchez and put together a strong offer without having to take on an encumbering salary that might bust their budget. The Indians could try to keep their surprising run going and bolster their 2012 rotation at the same time. The Rockies are on the hunt for a starting pitcher and Sanchez’s stuff would play well at altitude. The Rangers could bolster their rotation for the second consecutive summer, only this time by acquiring a guy who wouldn’t be leaving several months later.

Sanchez would be in strong demand and instantly become the jewel of the trade market (assuming the Mets decide to keep Jose Reyes), and, in most cases, the best guy on the market every summer commands a strong premium. The drop-off from Sanchez to the next best pitcher that a team could acquire is pretty staggering, and the Marlins could legitimately make the case that they were the holders of the only front-line starter on the market, and that they didn’t have to trade him since they had him under team control for next year as well.

But assuming that the Marlins won’t sign Sanchez long-term, they should trade him this summer. His strong season has lined up for a big paycheck in arbitration this winter, so any hope of getting him to sign a crazy below market deal like Johnson agreed to is out the window. If he hits free agency in 16 months, he’s going to get a deal that would make Jeffrey Loria cry (which is a thing we are in favor of, by the way). They missed their window to keep him in Miami long term, so now the question is when they should trade him, not if.

With no other good pitchers on the market and Sanchez’s salary making him an option for nearly every contender in baseball, they’ll never get more for him than they will now. Sanchez should command more than Cliff Lee did last summer thanks to the extra year of team control. The Marlins could land multiple top prospects and useful Major League players for him, as there are several teams who have the cache of prospects to make a really strong offer and the incentive to do so.

Larry Beinfest may just decide one of the playoff races this summer. He’s going to have his pick of places to send Sanchez to, and given his strong leverage, he’s in position to engineer a true blockbuster deal. The boring summer trade deadline may have just gotten interesting.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/anibal-sanchez-the-race-changer/
The package would have to be f'ng amazing but the rotation would kinda really suck.

[Omar]

JCRMarlinsbeat Juan C. Rodriguez
Highly doubtful. RT @GOBBLEX239: I read that Anibal Sanchez could become available. Is this true?
via Twitter

[MiamiHomer]

I'll take Alonso, Grandal, and your top pitching prospect.

[Miamarlin21]

Grandal cannot catch. I've watched him the past few days. Brutal.

And why would we want Yonder? We have Gaby at first, and if not Gaby, then LoMo. I used to think Yonder was a great fit in south Florida since he went to the U but now that Gaby is awesome, we really don't need him.

[MiamiHomer]

More canes = win

/Mainge got it

[marlins_virus.exe]

we can put alonso in left and shift lomo to center, since he's been great adjusting to left he can handle center

/the way the front office thinks

[Mainge]

Mainge always gets it.

[Miamarlin21]

we can put alonso in left and shift lomo to center, since he's been great adjusting to left he can handle center

/the way the front office thinks

That's another thing, Yonder is really bad in left. Like really bad. Catchers would purposely call certain pitches so the ball wouldn't go into left. That bad.

[Beef]

ohmygosh

[Omar]

If we're going for the "oh, he'd be a great fit in Miami!" trifecta, why not make Chapman the pitcher in this fantasy!

[Miamarlin21]

I'm down for Chappy.

[MiamiHomer]

If we're going for the "oh, he'd be a great fit in Miami!" trifecta, why not make Chapman the pitcher in this fantasy!

How could I forget!

[marlins_virus.exe]

That's another thing, Yonder is really bad in left. Like really bad. Catchers would purposely call certain pitches so the ball wouldn't go into left. That bad.
well, I was being sarcastic.

so there's that.

[Miamarlin21]

well, I was being sarcastic.

so there's that.

Didn't notice the sarcasm. Sorry

[Beef]

:-o

[MiamiHomer]

After doing this we need to set our sights on Jemile Weeks.

[Ramp]

Ryan Braun?

[MiamiHomer]

That would upset Bobbob, doesn't like his contract. But I'm up for it.

[Miamarlin21]

Weeks is doing work on my fantasy team :)

[Ramp]

stay on topic fm

this aint rompa room

[Miamarlin21]

I will if we stay on topic of Anibal dating destiny and not trading him for our All-Miami team.

[MiamiHomer]

Well to really get back on topic. I'd think the odds are really low that they consider moving Anibal at the dead line.

[Miamarlin21]

I certainly hope we don't trade him.

[Ramp]

Not against listening to offers though

[MiamiHomer]

What's Anibal's contract situation?

[Miamarlin21]

I think he's arbitration eligible for two more seasons.

[Swifty]

Yeah, we have him through '13.

[Mainge]

I don't think we do.

2013 is his first year of free agency.
--------------------
2007: Min. 2008: Min. 2009: Min. 2010: Arby. 2011: Arby. 2012: Arby. 2013: FA

[Erick]

Why would they consider trading Anibal before considering a possible trade for Nolasco?

Not that either one should be traded with the great pitching depth in the organization...

[Miamarlin21]

Why would they consider trading Anibal before considering a possible trade for Nolasco?

Not that either one should be traded with the great pitching depth in the organization...

Because Ricky is signed long-term while Anibal is not. Not saying that they will, but that'd the reason they'd trade Anibal before Ricky.

[Party]

That's three one-hitters in two years.

[Chewford]

Your math is correct.

[Big Z]

According to Clark Spencer the Fish approached Anibal about a contract extension recently.

[jay576]

Awesome. As long as the try you can't blame them for not giving retarded contracts if that is what is desired.