RVH/rotation Thoughts

[nny]

8.5 K/9
3.5 BB/9
1.2 HR/9

Chances RVH can do that in the majors?

4.21 FIP

I like him being in the middle to back of our rotation

8 K/9
4 BB/9
1.2 HR/9
for 4.49 FIP

is probably more realistic

I mean this is the first year he showed control in the minors, and bigger sample size = better to go off.

07: 3.4 BB/9
08: 3.7 BB/9
09: 2.4 BB/9

and though he has an awesome MLB K/9 rate it's hard to keep a high K rate as a starter.

But that's still good back of the rotation. 4.5 ERA from #5 making 300k...

Always going to give up a lot of HRs though. Will be around 45% FB and likely around 12% HR/FB = 1.2 HR/9

I'm liking him more as a rotation option than a reliever.

and, I mean, aren't those basically the same peripherals you'd look at for west?

And while yeah, West should give up less HRs, as he's been around 50% GB rate in the minors. But something to worry about is, this season in AA: 35% GB rate, majors: 35%. If he continues down that path you're not looking at a difference in hr/9. And, unlike RVH, he has shown no control since coming back from injury

08: 5.4 BB/9
09 AA: 4.3 BB/9
09 MLB: 4.6 BB/9

torn labrum = torn control LOL I'M SO WITTY

I know West gets the lefty nod, and RVH looks like he'll push a bit over a years worth of service time after the season, but I gotta wonder if we should be looking at RVH > west right now. RVH is jut one year older.

if I were to rank our pre-arb guys it'd probably be Volstad -> Andrew -> RVH -> West but not much of a difference between the 4, all of them should basically be middle of the rotation starters.

West might end up being the best of the 4 but he also might not be ready for 3 more years.

Going into next year I gotta wonder about having a

JJ -> Nolasco -> Volstad -> Andrew -> RVH rotation with West in NOLA

Then trade Nolasco after the year and bring West up.

We'd then have Winters to fill in if any of them don't work out, and the A ball arms should be in the upper minors by then to see what they're worth.

Either way our rotation for the next several years is looking fine. No real aces barring a break out but hopefully that can also be filled with Cody and/or Uggla's trade.

[Ralph]

I really think he's comparable to Matt Cain across the board. I don't think Cain is as good as he's been this year though.

[nny]

I really think he's comparable to Matt Cain across the board. I don't think Cain is as good as he's been this year though.

pretty decent comp but the main difference

matt cain's HR/FB: 6.5%, hR/9 = 0.76

that is best case for RVH and very unlikely. His MILB HR/FB is in the mid 8%'s, and that goes up from minors to majors. His currenlt ML career HR/FB is 12%, average is like 11% iirc, so I think 12% is fair to say.

[Fish and Chips]

so with RVH recent progression, he can be a servicable back-of-the-rotation starters.

does that make miller and west more available in trades? because we would have 4 guys: RVH, Miller, West and Anibal, fighting for two spots

Not to mention the marlins are frontrunners for carl pavano. So we can possibly have a rotation of: JJ, Nolasco, Volstad, RVH, Pavano. with anibal, miller, and west in the minors or bullpen.

Also i have to believe that Miller and West have more trade value then RVH, so we can get more with the lefties than RVH

[Ralph]

pretty decent comp but the main difference

matt cain's HR/FB: 6.5%, hR/9 = 0.76

that is best case for RVH and very unlikely. His MILB HR/FB is in the mid 8%'s, and that goes up from minors to majors. His currenlt ML career HR/FB is 12%, average is like 11% iirc, so I think 12% is fair to say.

Thing with me is he was rushed so fast it's really hard to gauge at his ML splits. And His MILB splits must also be tainted because of ALB. I guess we just need to take the wait and see approach with him.

[marlinsfan24]

I think RVH has the potential to be a 2-3 starter at best, sorta like Matt Cain like someone mentioned above.

[nny]

Thing with me is he was rushed so fast it's really hard to gauge at his ML splits. And His MILB splits must also be tainted because of ALB. I guess we just need to take the wait and see approach with him.

I agree with his ML splits, but I expect him to be a little above in HRs and 12% is only a little above average, his ML splits just happened to match that

MILB splits a bit because 6 of his career 28 HRs were given up in his 6 ALB starts. His MILB career HR/9 is 0.63 excluding alb starts (0.74 including)

However, I don't think we should go in expect a 6% HR/FB

he's a FB pitcher, he's gonna give up HRs.

average is like 9-11% so that'd be a better place to put him if you wanna lower his HRs
--------------------
so with RVH recent progression, he can be a servicable back-of-the-rotation starters.

does that make miller and west more available in trades? because we would have 4 guys: RVH, Miller, West and Anibal, fighting for two spots

Not to mention the marlins are frontrunners for carl pavano. So we can possibly have a rotation of: JJ, Nolasco, Volstad, RVH, Pavano. with anibal, miller, and west in the minors or bullpen.

Also i have to believe that Miller and West have more trade value then RVH, so we can get more with the lefties than RVH

Badenhop should also be servicable #5 should anything break down

I think

5.5 K/9
3 BB/9
1.0 HR/9 (13% hr/fb)

is about what to expect. Gives him a 4.42 FIP.

At this point we know we can fill out the rotation it's just a matter of top. Aka lock up JJ

[BigGameFish]

I like RVH a lot, he could develop into a 3 IMO

[Sashimi]

I was surprised at how many people were already writing off RVH. I think he might really surprise people. His arm is even 'younger' than his age because he started pitching relatively late. I also discount pretty heavily his performance the past two seasons because he had no business being in the majors at that point.

It seems like he has a good head on his shoulders (this is Miller's weakness) and his stuff is certainly good enough, especially if he is adding some movement to his fastball. I also do not think he is done growing as a pitcher, so the improvement in his control may well be for real, rather than a fleeting aberration.

[Mainge]

Did he ever throw a slider befoore this season? I dont remember it at all. And I dont see many curves either.

[Sashimi]

Yeah, it seems they had him ditch his "Holland Hammer" (curveball), which was a nice 12-6er but one that he had trouble controlling, in favor of the slider. I'd like to see him break out the ol' Hammer every once in a while.

[Mainge]

Yeah absolutelly. Just another pitch to think about.

[wanks1212]

He didn't throw a slider. Tehre was a story about Bert Blyleven working with Vanden Hurk at the WBC and emphasizing he rely on the slider instetad of the curveball. I can't find the story now, but it was published. Bert also talked about it on one of the Twins broadcasts, after RVH made a quality start.

[BigGameFish]

What are we doing with the #5 spot? Andrew Miller isnt going to start again in AAA for 2 weeks. Sean West? I dont know but they need to find someone besides Burke Badenhop

[mbitcronod12]

I really think we call up another temporary guy (think Graham Taylor but not necessarily him). Anibal has started rehab and Fredi said way back in the day that he would rejoin the rotation when he's ready. Whoever gets the call will probably only make 2 starts before Anibal is ready to return.

[lou]

Well Sanabia and Winters will be in AA next year, and West, G. Taylor, Trahern, and maybe Tucker in AAA. Also have to imagine we get at least a progressed SP spec back with Uggla/Ross/Hermida/Cantu/whoever trades.

JJ, Nolasco, Volstad, Miller, RVH works on paper for me. Although I am more skeptical than you about him being a SP. I would still guess a max effort RP for 1-2 inning bursts.

[all black marlins hat]

RVH has done great in his 3 starts thus far, but I'm still worried.
Because in the past he's had good starts, and then failed miserably.
Hopefully he's here to stay.
He has looked much better and more rounded out as a pitcher.
But just seeing him get rocked so often before is a bit scary.
Hopefully it's not the case.
This team cannot afford to need a 4th and 5th starter going down the stretch, let alone just needing a 5th starter.

[BigGameFish]

I really think we call up another temporary guy (think Graham Taylor but not necessarily him). Anibal has started rehab and Fredi said way back in the day that he would rejoin the rotation when he's ready. Whoever gets the call will probably only make 2 starts before Anibal is ready to return.


How dare you utter Graham Tayor's name

[nny]

Well Sanabia and Winters will be in AA next year, and West, G. Taylor, Trahern, and maybe Tucker in AAA. Also have to imagine we get at least a progressed SP spec back with Uggla/Ross/Hermida/Cantu/whoever trades.

JJ, Nolasco, Volstad, Miller, RVH works on paper for me. Although I am more skeptical than you about him being a SP. I would still guess a max effort RP for 1-2 inning bursts.

arrrr

i never noticed how little IP he averaged per start

since '07 just 5 1/3rd.

even this year in AAA that's what he averaged

Was originally going to say "this isn't a Ryan Tucker situation"

but both average the same pitiful IP per start lol :eviltongue:

So yeah probably just a RP.

meh

i'm holding out for now though.

GO SP RVH GO plz we could really use you :grouphug

[nny]

arrrr

i never noticed how little IP he averaged per start

since '07 just 5 1/3rd.

even this year in AAA that's what he averaged

Was originally going to say "this isn't a Ryan Tucker situation"

but both average the same pitiful IP per start lol :eviltongue:

So yeah probably just a RP.

meh

i'm holding out for now though.

GO SP RVH GO plz we could really use you :grouphug

although we also have to look at what we have next year

JJ - has averaged 6 2/3rd start past 2 years
Ricky - has averaged 6 1/3rd start past 2 years (and, when on, averages over 7)
Volstad - has averaged 6 ip start past 2 years (and wouldn't be surprised if that goes up)

I mean, the rotation is filled with inning eaters. having one harden-esque 5 IP starter wouldn't ruin our bullpen.

[The_Godfather]

I've always been a huge RVH fan. Yea he has had some terrible outings, but he has the pure stuff to be a very good starting pitcher at the major league level. If he can fill out and improve his endurance (a big if but he's still so young), I could see him having 2009 Josh Johnson type seasons soon.

[Bucklin12]

I've always been a huge RVH fan. Yea he has had some terrible outings, but he has the pure stuff to be a very good starting pitcher at the major league level. If he can fill out and improve his endurance (a big if but he's still so young), I could see him having 2009 Josh Johnson type seasons soon.

Too much.

[The_Godfather]

Too much.

Not really. Look at the career minor league numbers. Not many thought Josh Johnson had this potential a few years ago, most had him pegged as your typical 'solid #3 starter type'. The 6 seasons he spent in the minors are comparable to RVH; Rick's may be better.

The big difference of course is Rick has been horrible in the majors, and he has fatigue issues, but I see it with his stuff the same way I saw it with JJ's stuff very early in his career.