Daft 2010 MLB Thread

[Namaste]

World Series Futures:

Phillies +700 Risking $35

Marlins +3000 Risking $20


NLCS Futures:

Phillies +310 Risking $50

Braves +1100 Risking $20

Marlins +1600 Risking $25

[Namaste]

I renewed for this season based almost 100% on playoff expectations.

That is not to say I would call us a playoff certainty, but as I said earlier we have to be on the short list of teams with a legitimate hope in the National League.

If you were to just list the strongest NL teams my list would be:

Phillies*
Cardinals*
Giants
Dodgers
Marlins
Braves
Diamondbacks

(* = presumed division winner)

That leaves the Marlins fighting with the Dodger and Giants for the WC (winner takes the NL west).

Factor in that 3 of those teams are in the NL west (meaning they beat up on each other) and you can understand where I'm coming from when I think that 88 takes the WC.



That is a quote from Swift and it almost perfectly illustrates why I see real value in the +1600 for the NLCS and +3000 for the World Series futures wagers. I essentially used his same thought process which is not, "the Marlins are great" but more "the rest of the NL is not great".

[Namaste]

If you like money, 5Dimes set the Marlins win total @ 81 this year.

The over is at plus money (+110)

[Namaste]

Yankees have a very tough early season schedule. Couple this with their reigning World Championship status and there may be some nice value fading them early on.

Home/away: The Yankees are home for 19 of their first 41 games.
Games against teams that finished over .500 in 2009: 29 of their first 41.
Meat-grinder stuff: The Yankees start their season with 12 straight games against teams that posted records over .500 last year -- including six at Boston and six at Tampa Bay -- and then from May 7 to May 20, they play 14 straight games against AL contenders.

[Madman81]

If you like money, 5Dimes set the Marlins win total @ 81 this year.

The over is at plus money (+110)

A very disappointing total this year in my opinion. It's much closer to fair than the Marlins season total normally is.

[FishFanInPA]

Couple of Futures I need advice on:

Most wins by any Pitcher: Over 20.5 is +120 (Halladay could get more?)
Roy Halladay Over 15.5 Wins -130
Josh Johnson Over 13.5 Wins +115
Hanley Ramirez Over 26.5 HR -110

Most Homers Regular Season....I always like to look for value...Couple of intriguing names/prices
Hanley 100/1
Chase Utley 100/1
Jayson Werth in a contract year 100/1
Mauer 100/1 (What's the new twins park like for hitters supposedly?)
Joey Votto 100/1

Any help boys?

[Namaste]

Hanley under 26.5 HR's

[Metes]

Actually I love the Votto play. With his line from last year in that ballpark, he's the best value of those choices.

[FishFanInPA]

Votto's got injury concerns.

[FishFanInPA]

I think i've settled on:

$25 Over 13.5 wins for JJ (+110)
$5 Werth 100/1 to win HR Title
$5 Votto 100/1 to win HR Title
$10 Boise State 12/1 to win National Title.

[Metes]

But Votto's got injury concerns

[FishFanInPA]

Yeah, but I read how many HR's were hit in that park and I talked to a few Reds/Bearcats fans today who felt like it was a decent bet.

[Metes]

But I said it first, you should really credit me

[FishFanInPA]

if it wins, i'll send you some money.

[Namaste]

BOS is -114 for Opening Night

Total is 9

Most likely a no-play for me (although if the total gets pounded up I may take a peek at the under)

[FishFanInPA]

Daft, im not gonna lie....I'm looking at this game and im stumped as hell. Did you know that Boston is 18-18 vs. the yankees the last three seasons and the o/u is 17-17?

[Namaste]

I was stumped but I have decided on a play. I didn't want to force a play but then I found an angle I like.

The two stats you mentioned are conventional wisdom and I don't use those.



BOSTON -2.5 (+260)

All wagers will be to win one unit (favs) or risking one unit (dogs) unless otherwise specified.

[Namaste]

BOS/NYY OVER 9 (-115)
--------------------
Not a selection yet but if WAS is plus money @ +1.5 at home I may play it.

[Namaste]

BOS/NYY OVER 9 (-115)


:marchmellow

[Namaste]

I was stumped but I have decided on a play. I didn't want to force a play but then I found an angle I like.

The two stats you mentioned are conventional wisdom and I don't use those.



BOSTON -2.5 (+260)

All wagers will be to win one unit (favs) or risking one unit (dogs) unless otherwise specified.



Close but this is not hand grenades


**LOSS**

1-1 0.00 units
--------------------
HOUSTON +118


WASHINGTON +1.5 +105


Milwaukee -119

[nny]

Daft, how much do you normally make in a season (And how much do you normally start with, as obviously having a bigger bank = more winnings [or more losings, haha])?

[Namaste]

--------------------
HOUSTON +118

**LOSS**


WASHINGTON +1.5 +105

**LOSS**


Milwaukee -119

**LOSS**





1-4 -3.19 units
--------------------
Daft, how much do you normally make in a season (And how much do you normally start with, as obviously having a bigger bank = more winnings [or more losings, haha])?




I've had losing seasons and winning seasons. Remember that in my best seasons I've lost 40-42% of my wagers.

I finished up 5.50 units last year. My standard unit was $100 so I won $550


My starting bankroll this season is only $2,000. I only wager 3% of my bankroll on any one play so as you can see my standard play is not anything mind shattering. Betting too much of your bankroll on any one play is the downfall of many a sports bettor (the day I had today illustrates this point).

[Namaste]

TWINS +129

[Namaste]

TWINS +129



**WIN**


2-4 -1.90 units
--------------------
HOUSTON +142


**LOSS**


FLORIDA -117

[Namaste]

WASHINGTON +180

[Namaste]

MARINERS +115

[Namaste]

Friday

PHILLIES -143

Nationals are getting faded until they win twice

[Namaste]

FLORIDA -117






**WIN**



:|...
--------------------
MARINERS +115


**LOSS**
--------------------
3-7 -3.90 UNITS

[Namaste]

I did not post my two plays today.

I won a +103 (Reds) and lost a -103 (OVER on ATL/CHI)

It was a wash but I won't count them towards my unit count.


Slow start for Daft but a long season.

[Namaste]

BRAVES -115


INDIANS +140


NATIONALS +130

[Namaste]

COLORADO UNDER 9.5 (-115)

[FishFF]

Chipper and McCann are out tonight I believe and that line has come down a bit, not sure if you placed the bet yet.

[Metes]

-110 at BetUS

[FishFF]

-110 at BetUS

I see -105

[Namaste]

Already placed at -115

[Metes]

I see -105

Was -110 when I posted, now -105 yes
--------------------
Also +105 at WSEX

[Namaste]

I got obliterated today.


I'll tidy up the thread tommorow when I'm not so tired.

[Namaste]

BRAVES -115

**LOSS**


INDIANS +140


**LOSS**


NATIONALS +130

**LOSS**




...
--------------------
COLORADO UNDER 9.5 (-115)

**WIN**


YTD 4-10 -5.90 units
--------------------
WHITE SOX +131



INDIANS +113
--------------------
HOU +144

[Namaste]

--------------------
WHITE SOX +131


**LOSS**



INDIANS +113


**LOSS**
--------------------



...

[Namaste]

HOU +144

**LOSS**


4-13 -8.90 units



PHI -190

[Namaste]

WAS +245


ATL +180


TB -103


LAD +132

[Namaste]

LAD +132


**LOSS**
--------------------
WAS +245




**WIN**

[Namaste]

BREWERS +1.5 (-120) Bodog
--------------------




[B]PHI -190


**WIN**

[Namaste]

BREWERS +1.5 (-120) Bodog
--------------------





:lol

[MiamiHomer]

Casey McGehee says your welome.

[Namaste]

ATL +180






**LOSS**
--------------------
BREWERS +1.5 (-120) Bodog
--------------------






**WIN**
--------------------

[Namaste]

CIN +141 BetJam


YTD 7-15 -6.45 units

[Bobbob1313]

You wouldn't lose so much money if you would stop betting against the Marlins. It's karma.

Also, while it's supposed to rain tonight, Volstad isn't pitching, so you shouldn't be concerned.

[Namaste]

6 games into the season so not concerned about losing $$$ and with WAS winning (+245) yesterday I actually gained over 2 units so hopefully I can start to turn it around a little. If not, I guess I could deliver pizzas at night. : )

I wager on FLA when there is value (ie: +130 at home etc etc) but not when they're pretty heavy favorites who were very fortunate to win the series vs LAD.

If Nolasco doesn't go 7 in this game FLA will be in trouble. Just my take.
--------------------
KANSAS CITY +1.5 -120

[Namaste]

--------------------
KANSAS CITY +1.5 -120


**WIN**

8-15 -5.45 units

[Namaste]

CIN +141 BetJam


YTD 7-15 -6.45 units


**WIN**


YTD 8-15 -5.04 units
--------------------
NYY/LAA OVER 10 (-105)

[Metes]

Rough W/L, but not too bad on money

[Namaste]

Yeah slow start Matty.


PIRATES +174


DBACKS +158


If we hit one we make $$$ today

[Namaste]

DETROIT -117

[Jewbility]

how much is a unit

[Beef]

3% of $2,000?

[Jewbility]

I didn't see that, it was tucked in the middle of the thread.

[Beef]

Was I right?

[Jewbility]

Ya, from the Daft's mouth (keyboard)

[Namaste]

--------------------
NYY/LAA OVER 10 (-105)


**WIN**
--------------------
DETROIT -117



**WIN**
--------------------
Beef was right

[Namaste]

Wednesday


PITT +1.5 (-120)

[Namaste]

Yeah slow start Matty.


PIRATES +174


**WIN**


DBACKS +158


**LOSS**


If we hit one we make $$$ today


YTD 11-16 -2.30 units

[Namaste]

Padres +1.5 @ home is getting a look

Waiting for a better #

[Namaste]

SAN DIEGO +130


ARIZONA +165

[Namaste]

SAN DIEGO +130

**LOSS


ARIZONA +165

**WIN**




1-1 on the day and +.65 units


YTD 12-17 -1.65 units

[Namaste]

HOUSTON +210

[Metes]

Like it

[Namaste]

HOUSTON +210


**WIN**


YTD 13-17 +0.47 units Back on the plus side after a rough start. Favorites are hitting at about 62% so far this year so that explains my slow start somewhat.
--------------------
MARLINS UNDER 8 (-110)

[Namaste]

--------------------
MARLINS UNDER 8 (-110)



**LOSS**

YTD 13-18 -0.53 units

[Namaste]

WAS +144

CLE +124

LAA -107

WAS Under 8.5 -105

HOU +162

[Namaste]

WAS +144

**WIN**

CLE +124

**WIN**

LAA -107

**WIN**

WAS Under 8.5 -105

**WIN**

HOU +162

**LOSS**




YTD 17-19 +2.95 units
--------------------
TWINS/ROYALS UNDER 9.5 (-105)

2 big home dogs:

DODGERS +153

NATIONALS +145

[Namaste]

--------------------
TWINS/ROYALS UNDER 9.5 (-105)

**LOSS**

2 big home dogs:



NATIONALS +145

**WIN**




YTD 18-20 +3.40 units

[Namaste]

DODGERS +153



**LOSS**
--------------------
CIN/PITT UNDER 8 (-105)


TEX/NYY OVER 9 (EVEN)


LAD -162

[Namaste]

NYM/STL UNDER 7.5 (-115)

[Namaste]

--------------------
CIN/PITT UNDER 8 (-105)

**PUSH**


TEX/NYY OVER 9 (EVEN)

**LOSS**


LAD -162

**WIN**




YTD 19-21-1 +3.40 units

[Namaste]

NYM/STL UNDER 7.5 (-115)


ouch.

**LOSS**

[Namaste]

SAN DIEGO +108

NEW YORK METS +118

[Metes]

Let's go Mets

[Namaste]

Ah I see we're both on the Metsie's

We just squeeked a run in there.
--------------------
Los Mets just scored again Matty

4-1

[Namaste]

NEW YORK METS +118


**WIN**

YTD 20-22-1 +3.58 units

[Namaste]

SAN DIEGO +108




**WIN**

21-22-1 +4.62 units

[Namaste]

ATL -1.5 +135

[Namaste]

SFO/SDG UNDER 7 (-115)
--------------------
ATL -1.5 +135


Needed a miracle and almost got one


**LOSS**

[Namaste]

SFO/SDG UNDER 7 (-115)
--------------------


**WIN**

22-23-1 +4.62 units

[Namaste]

CLE/MIN OVER 8.5 (-120)
--------------------
CIN +136

[Namaste]

CLE/MIN OVER 8.5 (-120)

**LOSS**
--------------------
CIN +136

**LOSS**





...

[Namaste]

CLE/MIN OVER 9 (+110)

[Namaste]

WAS +1.5 (-110)

[Namaste]

CLE/MIN OVER 9 (+110)


**PUSH**
--------------------
WAS +1.5 (-110)


fuck.


**LOSS**



22-26-2 +2.42 units